Bullpen Report: May 8, 2017
• In spite of the Bizarro World the Mets are currently living in, they had a walk-off win today against the Giants. Fernando Salas and Jerry Blevins combined to throw a scoreless seventh leading to Addison Reed in the eighth and Jeurys Familia in the ninth, who received the vulture win for his first victory of the year. We had Jerry Blevins as the third in line on the chart, and for good measure as he’s now pitching toa 0.79/1.32/2.35 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line but I feel Hansel Robles would be closer to saves if something were to happen to both Familia and Reed. Thankfully that’s not the case as the back of the Mets bullpen might be the most or only reliable thing on the team right now. Jeurys Familia was a bit shaky immediately upon his return but he’s looking smoother now and this situation is certainly green.
• As you probably recall Roberto Osuna started the year on the DL and showed a bit of rust earlier this season. Well, those concerns can now be put to bed as Osuna is cruising. Osuna still has an inflated ERA at 3.75 but he also has a 15/1 K/BB in 12 innings pitched and after getting his fifth save tonight, is looking more and more like a young closer knocking on the door to first tiersville. Toronto is in the midst of a down year and in theory a piece like Osuna could command a ransom at the deadline. I’m jumping the gun on both Toronto hitting reset and them deciding to trade Osuna but it’s an interesting idea.
• With Zach Britton back on the shelf (sigh) Brad Brach continued his ninth inning duties, closing his eighth door on the season. He allowed three baserunners and a run in the process but they can’t all be pretty. The shame about Britton is that it’s a reoccurring injury (strained left forearm) and although I’m no doctor I feel that can’t be a great sign. In the meantime, expect Brach to remain in the ninth and provide solid saves and ratios.
• No save chance in Kansas City but it’s nice to see Matt Strahm display some signs of life. He gave up a homer to Colby Rasmus but also struck out four batters in 1.2 innings, showing some of his swing and miss stuff. This year has had more downs than ups for Strahm considering he entered the year as a compelling strikeouts and ratio helper before collapsing early and getting sent down to Omaha. If he’s able to right the ship he could get back to that level and the grid again. He’s not there yet, as Joakim Soria and Peter Moylan are ahead but he’s been more effective since he was recalled and is worth keeping an eye on deep leagues.
• The Yankees continued there impressive start putting up a ten spot in Cincinnati but of more interest to the Bullpen Report was a meaningless inning for the Reds. Wandy Peralta threw a scoreless and unimportant ninth but it’s time he gets some more notice around here. Jeff Sullivan made note of him earlier today and it’s worth checking out. After tonight’s outing, Peralta has a 1.32/2.05/1.94 pitching line with 19 strikeouts against four walks in 13.2 innings pitched. The Reds have several good-to-great relievers and Peralta is certainly one of them. Drew Storen, who we currently have on the grid, allowed two runs in one inning of work tonight and although I’m not going to change anytihng, if Peralta keeps this up this production he’ll be moving on up quickly. It’s also worth noting that Peralta could be more of a multi-inning reliever for the Reds, which would put him further away from future saves but actually be better for fantasy teams with more volume/innings pitched.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
Just wondering if Neris is the closer to own in philly? Or has Beniot won that job back?
Philly hasn’t stuck with one over the other with any regularity and it’s somewhat of a committee but I’m in on Neris save total > Benoit save total this season.
Based on most recent usage, Neris is still the closer I’d have to think
Jose Leclerc is on the DL at the moment
Thanks for this, saw it this morning and will update tonight.
Also, Grilli is being used in low leverage situations for now: https://mobile.twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/860593664489390081
It was Danny Barnes who pitched the 7th inning tonight, ahead of Smith and then Osuna.
I noticed that as well, but for speculative future saves I think Grilli is still ahead. This is where the grid’s purpose has different opinions/strategy. Should it be the exact current 7th and 8th inning preferences, most likely to receive saves, or a hybrid? It’s a conversation that’s ongoing.
It should definitely be a saves/high-leverage pecking order. There’s no good reason I can think of why it would be more important to know who has the 7th inning than to know who is likely to receive high-leverage saves/holds opportunity in the future.
And going by recent useage, I’d suggest that Scioscia seems to trust the veteran David Hernandez (who has some past closing experience) as his top setup guy over the less established Blake Parker these days.
You’re probably right, especially considering who the manager is.
Do you think that there’s any chance that Mauricio Cabrera becomes Atlanta’s closer by the end of the year? I haven’t been hearing anybody talking about him whatsoever. I know that he’s off the DL and currently doing a rehab assignment in AAA. He’s been criticized for having a straight fastball and no real effective breaking pitch, but he throws HARD. Do arbitration factors further complicate this? It seems that Atlanta has few inspiring options should Jim Johnson fall off a cliff or get traded. I have him in a 20 team keeper with super deep rosters.
I also own Cabrera in a deep 20 team league. I am thinking of dropping him. He could very well be the closer of the future, but i think it is long term future – not August future
I dont think itll happen this season. if the jim johnson trade audition will ever be completed a yr. into it who knows.or the vizcaino showcase or whatever the plan for him was after that. could eventually happen but theres probably more useful things you can stash
“The Reds have several good-to-great relievers and Peralta is certainly one of them”
Just wanna highlight how impossible this seemed a year ago. Through May 9th 2016, Reds relievers were running 6.43/6.16/5.27 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) with a paltry 6.8% K%-BB% over 119 IP. Obviously not adjusted for competition,* but same rates for 2017 are 3.36/3.63/3.50 and 16.2% over a league high 128.2 IP.
Interestingly, LAD and CLE have actually experienced similar or greater improvements in their FIPs, lowering them by 42% and 48% compared to CIN’s 42% reduction. On an xFIP basis however, “Raisel The Relief Ace” & Co. standout, having lowered their team xFIP by 34%, compared to 28% and 27% for LAD and CLE respectively.
While I’m here I should mention that of the team’s who’s relievers have posted FIPs more than 30% worse this year than last year (DET, NYM, OAK, SEA, and WSN), DET and WSN standout in that their FIP increases of 38% and 36% are largely fueled by serious jumps in HR/FB rate, from 8.8% to 16.1% for DET and 9.2% to 17.4% for WSN. Both have retained largely similar xFIPs–DET’s increased by 9%, while WSN’s has been a mere 2% higher so far in 2017–although rather than providing any reassurance about the quality of either’s backends this year, this is more evidence that both were actually just about as bad last year.
Finally, Mets fans can take pride in the fact that although their mostly Familia-less relievers have lead the league with increases in FIP and xFIP of 67% and 26% respectively, much of that can be attributed to regression from the absurd 2.47/3.26 (FIP/xFIP) posted during this period in 2016.
*[Although a very rough estimation based on average projected win probabilities shows this year to be pretty similar (and I would guess non-statistically significant) at 44.07% for 2017 compared to 43.34% for 2016.