Updates: Napoli & Toronto’s Closer
Well, so much for that. Two of my recent posts were rendered obsolete or close to it in fell swoop yesterday. Time for some updates…
Archive for Catchers
ADP Crowdsourcing: Joe Mauer
In today’s ADP Crowdsourcing, we go back to looking at a star, and and are using pick number as our unit of measurement because of it.
Joe Mauer was a certifiable star heading into 2010 fantasy drafts. The catcher had hit close to 30 home runs, signed a massive extension and helped the Twins move into their new ballpark. His 2011 was far less spectacular, even though he ended up posting 5 WAR. Mauer ended 2010 with 9 homers, 88 runs scored and a .327 batting average. That line would have been more than acceptable from any other catcher, but after the numbers Mauer put up the year before, it was seen as a disappointment.
Mike Napoli: Free At Last
By now you’ve heard about and have had time to digest the blockbuster trade that sent Vernon Wells and his entire contract to the Angels for Juan Rivera and Mike Napoli. It was a stunning transaction that pitted one of the game’s youngest and brightest GM’s against a team mired in apparent desperation after a rather uneventful offseason, but man, it still took a day or two to wrap your head around that monster. As fantasy players, we get to celebrate Napoli’s freedom from Mike Scioscia and his Jeff Mathis love-fest.
Catchers, Continued
by Eno Sarris
January 14, 2011
Earlier in the week we showed that you can still get a comparative advantage over your fellow drafters by drafting an elite catcher that will rack up 10-12% more plate appearances than other catchers. But that’s only half the picture – what the catchers do with their plate appearances is the rest of the picture. If you can’t get too much of a comparative advantage in terms of the other statistics, the plate appearances won’t matter much.
In order to do that, we’ll take a look at some of the projections for catchers that should go early and catchers that go later. We’ll use draft picks from the Stupidly Early Mock Draft over at RotoHardball.com to approximate ADP (but there’s more help coming from RG when it comes to rankings and mocks, don’t worry).
First, let’s just take the Bill James projections for the top 12 catchers, grouped not in tiers, but just in groups of four. These jerry-rigged tiers will allow us to compare the top, middle, and bottom catchers without too much discussion about getting them into the correct tiers. A straight average of the groups should put this into focus.
2.10 Joe Mauer .338 BA, 15 HR, 3 SB, 93 R, 87 RBI
4.1 Brian McCann .280 BA, 24 HR, 4 SB, 68 R, 94 RBI
4.2 Victor Martinez .298 BA, 19 HR, 1 SB, 69 R, 88 RBI
4.3 Buster Posey .308 BA, 21 HR, 1 SB, 74 R, 83 RBI
Top-“Tier” Average: .306 BA, 20 HR, 2 SB, 76 R, 88 RBI
7.5 Geovany Soto .276 BA, 20 HR, 0 SB, 56 R, 72 RBI
7.8 Carlos Santana .280 BA, 22 HR, 7 SB, 83 R, 91 RBI
9.4 Matt Wieters .288 BA, 16 HR, 0 SB, 55 R, 74 RBI
12.11 Mike Napoli .246 BA, 24 HR, 4 SB, 62 R, 66 RBI
Mid-“Tier” Average: .273 BA, 21 HR, 3 SB, 64 R, 76 RBI
14.6 Jorge Posada .260 BA, 16 HR, 2 SB, 49 R, 60 RBI
14.7 Miguel Montero .273 BA, 14 HR, 0 SB, 51 R, 58 RBI
15.9 Ryan Hanigan .281 BA, 5 HR, 0 SB, 39 R, 37 RBI
16.12 Kurt Suzuki .266 BA, 13 HR, 4 SB, 65 R, 73 RBI
Bottom-“Tier” Average: .270 BA, 12 HR, 1 SB, 51 R, 57 RBI
It looks like you get what you pay for, but the middle tier might get you the best value. The bottom tier looks pretty bad, but if you replace Hanigan with John Buck, whose projections are a little rosier (.248 BA, 17 HR, 0 SB, 47 R, 60 RBI), then your averages for the bottom tier look a little nicer – .262 BA, 15 HR, 53 R, 63 RBI.
While the top three in plate appearances will show a comparative advantage over the rest of the field, plate appearances can be hard to predict. Going by projected performance, it looks like the best plan may be to wait, but not wait too long.
Fun With Catchers and Plate Appearances
by Eno Sarris
January 11, 2011
Did you know that only seven catchers qualified for the major league batting title last year? 16 second basemen did, too, and they were the second-least represented group. The most amount of plate appearances accrued by a catcher was 584 by Joe Mauer. Centerfielders had the second-worst leader by PAs, and that was Denard Span with 705 plate appearances. No matter where you draft your catcher, you’ll be getting fewer opportunities to accrue counting stats from your catcher.
There are some nice catchers near the top of the rankings, and there is certainly some advantage to be gained by picking a stud at the position. The argument might go that you can rack up comparatively more plate appearances by getting one of the top six or seven guys, even if their absolute plate appearances don’t stack up against other positions. Well, we can test, this right?
When compared to the top 12 catchers by plate appearances alone, here are the comparative plate appearances that the top three catchers can provide, with 100 equaling the average for the top 12.
Joe Mauer = 115
Brian McCann = 111
Kurt Suzuki = 107
Let’s compare that to second basemen, who seem to have similar problems accruing plate appearances. The top three secondbase dudes by plate appearances:
Rickie Weeks = 114
Chone Figgins = 106
Robinson Cano = 105
Well, look at that – and I don’t mean the delicious irony that Rickie Weeks led second basemen in plate appearances. Good thing we went into this without preconceptions, because it looks like you can gain an advantage against your leaguemates by snatching up one of the catchers that comes to the plate regularly. It’s kind of crazy to think, but Jorge Posada, with his 451 plate appearances, came to the plate more often compared to his peers than Aaron Hill with his 580 plate appearances.
Of course, none of this factors in the actual projections for the catchers near the bottom of your rankings, a topic we’ll tackle later in the week.
Is Anyone* On The Royals Worth Drafting? (Part II)
* Anyone not named Billy Butler and Joakim Soria, obviously.
Yesterday we looked at what remains of the Royals’ pitching staff to determine if any of those guys were worth a roster spot in a fantasy league, and today we’re going to move onto the position player crop. Fun starts after the jump…
ADP Crowdsourcing: Carlos Santana
ADP Crowdsourcing is back with a slightly different format, and now with the second half of a pair of related players. Just like earlier in the week, we are still voting on where you think the player will be drafted (just like we did before), but also where you would take him.
Before Buster Posey took the league by storm, there was Carlos Santana. Santana was called up by the Indians in mid-June and absolutely dominated. His minor league numbers were always impressive, but it’s hard to expect such an immediate impact from a catcher. Santana hit six bombs in less than 200 plate appearances, and had a walk rate around 20%! Small sample sizes be damned, I’m giddy just thinking about Santana’s debut.
Santana’s rookie season was ended by another rookie in Ryan Kalish, who slid into Santana while he was blocking the plate. Given the images of the impact, it’s a wonder Santana still has a career in front of him, but he’s supposed to be ready for baseball come spring training. Santana is nothing if not impressive, so he’ll probably be playing the National Anthem on his guitar, too.
If not for the injury, Santana may be getting all of the hype that comes with being a young catching stud. But owners are going to have to proceed cautiously, and the common man may not even be excited about Santana due to his BABIP lowered batting average.
Like Buster Posey’s crowdsourcing earlier this week, we are still voting on where you think Santana will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Should make for good times. Also, please note we are using pick, not round this time because of Santana’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.
To submit your vote, click here.
ADP Crowdsourcing: Buster Posey
We resume our ADP Crowdsourcing series with a slightly different format, and with a pair of related players this week. This time we are voting on where you think the player will be drafted (just like before), but also where you would take him.
Two words: Buster Posey. One more word: NEXT. In case you don’t subscribe to ESPN: The Magazine and don’t know what I’m talking about, you can read Calcaterra’s small writeup on the matter, or read Buster Olney’s piece.
However crazy ESPN’s selection might be, Posey may well be the NEXT great fantasy catcher. It’s not real often that catchers get called up to the big leagues and put up impressive offensive numbers, but that’s exactly what happened in 2010. Posey hit 18 homers in about 400 at-bats to go along with a .300 batting average. Even if that line was over a full season, it would still be pretty darn impressive.
For the most part, Posey’s numbers look completely repeatable – and there is a category or two that he could improve on (mainly his walks) – but staying stagnant is not going to be enough for most fantasy owners out there. Because Posey will be 24 years old when the 2011 campaign begins, owners will probably be looking for some Giant improvements.
We are still voting on where you think Posey will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Should make for good times. Also, please note we are using pick, not round this time because of Posey’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.
To submit your vote, click here.
A New Catcher In New York
While everyone in New York and around the country is focused on the free agent the Yankees didn’t sign, let’s talk about the one they did. MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reports that the team has signed catcher Russell Martin to contract of unknown terms (presumably one year), and he’ll now take over as their regular starting catcher with Jorge Posada shifting into the designated hitter role. The move impacts not just those two, but uberprospect Jesus Montero as well.
Martinez heads to Detroit
The first big name free agent came off the board earlier this week, when the Tigers finalized a four-year, $50MM contract with catcher/first baseman/designated hitter Victor Martinez. GM Dave Dombrowski confirmed that his latest pickup will serve as the team’s primary DH in 2011, with a few catching and first base assignments mixed in every so often. The move obviously improves Detroit’s offensive attack, but what does it do for Martinez’s fantasy value?
