Archive for Catchers

While recently running some projections for the catcher position, I paused at the name Ivan Rodriguez. First, I couldn’t believe he was still in the league. He’s turning 39 next week, he’s survived allegation and decline, and yet he’s employed as a major-league catcher next year and he’s averaged 433 plate appearances over his last three years. His offense hasn’t been great (around a 72 wRC+ the last two years), but it’s a tough position, and his .266 batting average last year was 13th among catchers with more than 300 plate appearances. He’s been owned and will be owned again.

But it wasn’t just Rodriguez that gave me pause. After just returning from the Arizona Fall League, where young Derek Norris played well (.278/.403/.667 in 65 plate appearances), I wondered how soon the Nationals would make a change and look to the future. In that future, it’s Norris that piques the interest. He’s put up a 267/304 BB/K ratio in 1392 plate appearances, or a 19.2% walk rate and a 28% strikeout rate. The first is nice, the second is very worrisome. In the AFL he struck out 33% of the time, so that part of his game has continued.

In this case, the good news is that Norris hasn’t played in Double-A yet and has a full year to work on his strikeout rate. He has patience and power – a .201 ISO so far, and a nice showing at the AFL with four homers, two triples and five at-bats in those 54 PAs – so two thirds of the triumvirate are there. His range of possibilities still includes Geovany Soto (16% walk rate, 25.8% strikeout rate, .217 ISO last year), but it also includes Chris Snyder (13.8% walk rate, 29.5% strikeout rate, .169 ISO last year). The risk of the latter is large, but the promise of the former means that Norris needs to stay on radars as he progresses through Double-A in 2011.

In the short term, Rodriguez may have more to worry about from Jesus Flores. Flores has been battling shoulder woes which took all of 2010 from him – but he’s been catching in the Venezuelan Winter League until a calf injury recently sidelined him. Taken in the Rule V draft from the Mets, Flores has been injured so often that he’s only managed 627 plate appearances since the beginning of the 2007 season. In those plate appearances, he hasn’t shown much patience (6.4%), power (.146 ISO) or ability to make contact (26.5%), but short stints have produced small samples in which he’s walked at double-digit rates and shown above-average power. Flores gets an incomplete but interesting, which seems about par for the course.

Last but not least is the newcomer, Wilson Ramos. Famously blocked in Minnesota, Ramos came over in the Matt Capps trade and found some previously lacking mojo. In 2008 and 2009, Ramos was a young catcher in High-A and Double-A showing the ability to avoid the strikeout (18.6% over the two years, 11.2% in Double-A) and pair that with average power (.146 and .137 ISOs respectively). Then 2010 came, and he lost the power (.104 ISO), hit some poor batted-ball luck (.277 BABIP), and put forth a .241/.280/.345 line that may have contributed to his trade. The change of scenery did the trick, as he put up a .177 ISO with the Nationals, and the batted ball luck returned to normal (.344 BABIP), considering that BABIPs are normally high in the minor leagues.

Through it all, Ramos has shown the ability to avoid the strikeout (17.7% career, and lower at the higher levels). That might serve him to put up an okay batting average despite the lack of walks. Paired with average-ish power, he might look like… Ivan Rodriguez. Without some – cough – help, Ramos’ power peak won’t ever look like Rodriguez’ best years, but look at the Tigers’ version of Rodriguez for an idea of what a nice Ramos year could look like. And, in fact, that makes him the safest bet for the future at the position for the Nationals.

During this offseason, the Yankees’ catcher “battle” will be one of the more prominent positional competitions to keep an eye on. Barring a free agent addition, which seems unlikely, the Yankees will go into 2011 with three distinctly different catchers, all of whom could have some value to your team. Here they are, in no particular order.

Jorge Posada
The switch-hitter has been around for a long time, but you already knew that (I hope). While his batting average was poor this year, he was still a top-10 fantasy catcher thanks to his 18 homers. By the time next season ends, Posada will be 40-years old, so will he be able to squat behind the plate more than a couple times a week? I’m doubting it, and the Yankees probably are, as well.

Francisco Cervelli
The Yankees used Cervelli to spell Posada this year, and he racked up over 300 trips to the plate in the process. He does a good job of making contact and drawing walks, but a slugging percentage below .340 really limits the damage he can do to an opposing team. He’s a safe option, and the Yanks are going to keep him around because of it.

Jesus Montero
Montero will always be involved in one of the great “what if” questions for both the Yankees and Mariners after he was almost dealt for Cliff Lee this summer. He has great power for someone who iis still really young, but still has a lot to learn about the defensive side of his position.

In all likelyhood, the Yanks are going to have Posada DH a couple of days a week, in the hopes of keeping up his offensive production. Cervelli will get the playing time behind the plate for the first month or two, as the Yanks try to fine tune Montero’s defense while limiting his service time.

All three of these guys could have some sort of fantasy value, but it could turn out that all three are somewhat worthless depending on how playing time is distributed. While the catchers’ position is the main one to watch, keep an eye out to see if the Yankees bring in a full-time DH for next season. I’d expect New York to keep the DH role fairly open, rotating Posada or Montero through for the majority of the season.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at four catchers.

Matt Wieters
Wieters is one of the most common keepers that owners are on the fence about, and that’s no surprise. Unless you expected a catcher to have a .350+ BABIP for the rest of his career, his 2010 numbers aren’t that much of a shock. Wieters improved in a lot of categories (BB%, K%, SwStr%, Contact%), but saw a drop in his line drive rate forcing his BABIP to trend lower.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.345, 14 HR
Verdict: Cut. He’ll probably fall in drafts, so you’re better off waiting for him.

Geovany Soto
This one’s pretty simple, at least in my eyes. All of Soto’s problems stem from Sweet Lou and playing time, and he’s already gone. Plus, even with reduced PT, Soto was one of the best catchers this year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.380, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep.

Ryan Doumit
A constant frustration thanks to his injury problems, Doumit may not be quite the same risk heading into next season. With the Pirates starting to give him time in the outfield, some of the injury worries should melt away. I wouldn’t expect much more than 450 plate appearances, but that’s a number you can live with.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.345, 15 HR
Verdict: Cut. If you can, forget about his 2008 season as soon as possible.

Carlos Santana
Before the horrendous collision with Ryan Kalish, Santana was an automatic keeper going into 2011. He’s shown good power, fantastic patience, and a good stroke at the plate. Heck, he even stole a few bases. Knee injuries and catchers are scary stuff, so you need to be extra cautious with this one.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.400, 12 HR
Verdict: Keep. As long as you don’t have to pay too high a price, he’s worth the risk.

Tyler Flowers
Once considered the White Sox obvious catcher of the future, his fate is not so clear now. Chicago will have a vacancy to fill, but will they hand it over to Flowers?
Crude 2011 Projection: .225/.300, 10 HR
Verdict: Cut. I don’t think he’ll ever hit for a high enough average to justify keeping him.

JP Arencibia
After his spectacular debut, JPA didn’t do much in the limited playing time the Blue Jays gave him. He can still mash, and it should be his job to lose coming into spring.
Crude 2011 Projection: .245/.295, 15 HR
Verdict: Keep. He has too much power to send him packing.

If you have a catcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

The summer is winding down, but your fantasy team still needs furious updating for the final push, so don’t neglect it. Here is a duo of players, one for shallower leagues, and one for deeper leagues.

David Murphy, Rangers (17% owned)
Murphy has started 34 of the Rangers last 37 games, so the idea that he’s primarily a bench player seems outdated. Of course, he’s been getting more time with Josh Hamilton on the schneid with rib issues, but as this Rangers juggernaut rolls into the final couple weeks of the season, they’ll only have more incentive to rest their studs and get Murphy into the lineup. Murphy took a nice step forward this year, as he held on to the gains he made at the plate last year (9.9% walk rate last year, 9.7% this year, 8.7% career) while reducing the strikeouts from a career-worst level last year (18.3% this year, 24.5% last year, 19.9% career). Unfortunately, his ISO took a hit once he stopped swinging so hard (.144 ISO this year, .175 career) – and it’s a little surprising to see ZiPs RoS predict that the ISO will drop even further (.118 ZiPs RoS ISO). Here’s a bet that he can keep his ISO around league average going forward, which will make him playable with the better batting average that goes with the reduced strikeout rate. Murphy is also working on a career high in stolen bases (12) and since he’s only been caught once, it seems that the opportunistic thievery can continue. If you need a little bit of everything right now, Murphy could be your man.

Brayan Pena, Royals (2% owned)
Back on August thirteenth, I mentioned in a post about Ned Yost that the Royals manager was going to play his backup catcher more often. More often at first meant that Pena would start a couple games and rest a couple games, but then Jason Kendall got hurt and he’s been playing almost every day since. He’s under team control for a couple of years still, so it behooves the team to give him the at-bats to see what he can do. His wRC+ values over the last two years (96 and 92) don’t seem to suggest he’s a great sleeper for fantasy leagues, but it’s a tough position and players like Chris Snyder (owner of a similar wRC+ this year) have been owned periodically in many leagues. He’s worth a look. His walk rate right now (8.7%) is a little high given his minor league number (6.9%), but so is his strikeout rate (16.2% this year, 13.2% career, 10.1% minors). He could make a little more contact and keep a similar line. He won’t have much power (.100 minor league ISO), but his current line is sustainable – and he’s hot, hitting .421 over his past two weeks. He’s a borderline guy in the deepest of leagues, but he could help the right team.

The baseball world went gaga for Buster Posey after he was called up to the bigs and destroyed major league pitchers during the month of July, immediately after the Giants decided to deal Bengie Molina and play Posey everyday.

While players can have big months, Posey’s July was completely off the heezy. Not so much because of his .424 BABIP and .417 batting average, but because he hit seven homers, and another seven extra base hits. His wOBA for July? A whopping .487, with a 210 wRC+. Crazy, to say the least. There was no reason to think he’d produce at a level anywhere near his July, so seeing what he could do when his numbers stabilized was going to be crucial to estimating his value.

Even when he cooled down, his numbers from August weren’t shabby. He hit two jacks and nine doubles, kept his strikeout rate at a reasonable level, and continued to smoke like drives. You really couldn’t have asked from much more from a rookie catcher, but I’d bet some owners were disappointed.

Posey’s August was much more indicative of what we’ll see from him next year. Although, when you compare it to July, almost anything would have been. If you look closer, you can see that August was very reasonable and looks right, regardless of what you want to compare it to. His strikeout and walk rates were close to what should be expected, his BABIP (.318) was too, and he didn’t have an explosion of power.

It’s time to evaluate your keepers, so what should you predict for Posey next year? I’m thinking he’ll hit 17 homers with a batting average around .295, which is pretty darn good for a catcher. Odds are he’ll be overvalued next year thanks to his explosive July, but he needs to be valued based off his more reasonable August.

A holiday edition of “Catchers,” coming to you in three…two…one.

Ryan Hanigan | Reds | 2% Owned
Hanigan is a favorite of mine, and like Chris Iannetta, he just needs to receive added playing time to be a viable option. Hanigan walks more than strikes out, hits line drives and can hit the ball out of the park enough to make him a fantastic catcher. If I can go off script for a moment and discuss real life baseball (gasp!), there is no way Hanigan should be riding the bench. The Reds are splitting starts behind the dish right down the middle (pun intended), so Hanigan is a nice guy to have if you have room for a second catcher, or are willing to take reduced production and lowered risk.

Yadier Molina | Cardinals | 60% Owned
The BABIP Gods shined favorably on Molina during August, allowing him to produce a monster .329 average at the dish. While there’s no reason to believe he can do it again, Molina was going to get some good luck eventually. However, outside of July, his line drive rates haven’t been anything special, leading to a sub-par season at the dish. He’s capable of hitting .275 in September, which is just high enough for a roster spot. During the last month of my season, I’d rather have a catcher with more upside than Molina. I usually hype players up, but Yadier should not be owned in 50% of leagues, let alone 60%.

A.J. Pierzynski | White Sox | 29% Owned
Guess who hit less than 13% line drives with a .346 BABIP in August? Pierzynski, that’s who! Besides cutting down on the strikeouts and the occasional dinger, Pierzynski hasn’t been productive at the plate this year. He’s not going to be sought after during free agency, but someone will take a chance on him this offseason. There’s no use owning him at this point, so don’t pay him any mind.

Last weekend the Mets dumped Rod Barajas, their starting catcher for basically the entire season, on the Dodgers when they claimed him off waivers. They saved themselves a little more than $100,000 over the rest of the season with the move. Barajas quickly endeared himself to the Dodger faithful, going 3-for-4 with a pair of doubles and a homer in his first game with the club. Of course, he owns a .283 career OBP (.274 this year) and by all accounts is an atrocious offensive player, but he certainly started his Dodger career off on the right foot.

For the Mets, the deal wasn’t so much about saving that extra $100,000 as it was opening a full-time spot for 23-year-old Josh Thole. A half-dozen or so games out of the playoff spot, it was time for the Mets to see what they had in Thole and whether or not he could be part of their future.

Baseball America ranked Thole as the team’s eighth best prospect before the season, saying he “essentially takes a two-strike approach on all counts, choking up on the bat to punch line drives to both gaps. He hits for average and is difficult to strike out.” They also acknowledged his lack of power and some throwing deficiencies, but the latter doesn’t matter in fantasy. They project him as more of a platoon player long-term than as an everyday backstop, but for now the Mets are going to run him out there and hope he impresses. Hard to blame them, really.

Before Barajas was jettisoned, Thole performed admirably in spot duty, hitting .289/.361/.351 in 108 plate appearances. Before that he had hit .261/.347/.424 in just shy of 200 plate appearances with Triple-A Buffalo, and last year he went .321/.356/.396 in a September call-up. The power numbers are obviously nothing to write home about (.092 ISO in over 1,700 minor league plate appearances), but his approach and contact skills have allowed him to walk (209) more than he’s struck out (206) in his career, and I’m a sucker for guys that can do that.

Overall, Thole is hitting .303/.377/.367 as a big leaguer this season, exceptionally good AVG (and OBP) for a catcher. The counting stats aren’t there – he has just one homer, nine RBI, and six runs scored in over 120 plate appearances – but with the position so devoid of offensive production, getting help in the rate stats is a pretty big coup at this time of year. The long-term production probably won’t be anything special, but if you’re desperate for catching help, there are worse options than riding Thole’s BABIP-fueled batting average the rest of the way.

With my batteries recharged after a “vacation,” here are some catcher notes to start your week.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Red Sox | 1% Owned

Seeing Salty in a Red Sox uniform just feels right, doesn’t it? While he hasn’t shown a ton of promise since his big time Triple-A performance in 2008, the Red Sox are going to give him a chance to prove himself in minimal action the rest of the year. He’s still only 25, and he did hit 11 homers in 270 Triple-A plate appearances this year with the Rangers. He didn’t transition into the Red Sox system well, but his 23 trips to the plate don’t deter me. He has a career line drive rate of 21.2%, and a league average walk rate, but he needs to cut back on his strikeouts by around 10%. If Salty can show some progress in the bigs, the Red Sox may decide he’s ready for a bigger role next year if Victor Martinez walks in free agency. If you have a big bench in a keeper league, he might be worth stashing.

Ryan Doumit | Pirates | 40% Owned

When the Pirates acquired Chris Snyder, it seemed like Doumit would be moving to right field full time. Since returning from the DL, he has played in five games, manning right field only once. It appears that the Pirates were intent on giving Jeff Clement another chance to prove himself at first base, and that threw a wrench into Snyder’s playing time behind the dish, and Doumit’s playing time elsewhere. Now that the Pirates have tired of Clement, Doumit should move over to RF with Garrett Jones taking over at first base. A move away from the plate should improve Doumit’s offensive numbers, and he’ll still be catcher eligible next year. While he isn’t a great keeper, he’s still worth a spot on your roster for the rest of the season.

The Boston Red Sox acquired C Jarrod Saltalamacchia from the Texas Rangers for 1B Chris McGuiness, RHP Roman Mendez, a player to be named later and cash.

Remember when Saltalamacchia was the key prospect acquired by the Rangers in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira trade that also netted Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz? Now, the switch-hitter’s future is murky following injury issues and problems throwing the ball back to the pitcher, a la Rube Baker in Major League II.

Salty has struggled in the majors to this point, batting .251/.313/.388 in 874 PA. His wOBA is .306, and his wRC+ is 82. While the 25-year-old hasn’t been a total hacker, his 8.1% walk rate is a bit below the big league average, and he has punched out 31.1% of the time. The 6-4, 235 pound specimen hasn’t pounded the ball, either, with a .137 Isolated Power. Behind the dish, Sean Smith’s Total Zone pegs him as five runs below average per 1,200 innings. Salty missed time in 2008 with a forearm strain, and then he had to undergo right shoulder surgery in 2009 for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. This spring, he battled a back injury.

At Triple-A Oklahoma City this season, Salty had a .244/.326/.445 line in 270 PA. He’s walked 9.3% of the time, punched out 25.2% and posted a .201 ISO. While it’s hard to evaluate this trade without knowing the significance of the PTBNL, Saltalamacchia looks like a worthwhile reclamation project for Boston. He’s still relatively young and he’s under team control for several years to come, which makes him a possible alternative to pending free agent Victor Martinez.

Salty’s fantasy value is nil for the rest of the season. His bat no longer looks special, and he must prove durable while not embarrassing himself defensively. Don’t totally write him off, though. The offensive bar is set low for backstops (.251/.324/.383 MLB average), and he’s got enough offensive ability to clear that mark if he can avoid face-planting in the other aspects of catching.

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired C Chris Snyder, SS Pedro Ciriaco and cash from the Arizona Diamondbacks for SS Bobby Crosby, RHP D.J. Carrasco and RF Ryan Church.

Pittsburgh picked up Snyder in what amounts to an Arizona salary dump — the only semi-useful item the D-Backs got back was Carrasco, a middle reliever non-tendered by the White Sox last winter. Snyder, 29, will make $5.75 million in 2011, and he’s got a $6.75 million club option for 2012 ($750,000 buyout). Arizona sent $3 million to the ‘Burgh as part of the trade.

With the Pirates, Snyder will take over as the starting catcher. Ryan Doumit, due off the DL soon, will only catch occasionally while getting re-acclimated to first base and the corner outfield. ZiPS doesn’t see a huge difference between the two from an offensive standpoint (.339 rest-of-season wOBA for Snyder, .333 for Doumit). This is a quality move for the Bucs, however, given the modest financial investment involved and the spare parts surrendered in the trade. Snyder’s not known as a defensive stalwart and his 2009 season was marred by a back ailment, but Doumit’s injury history is even more checkered — he tore his left hamstring in 2006, sprained his left wrist and ankle in 2007, fractured his left thumb in 2008, suffered a right wrist injury that required surgery in 2009 and has dealt with concussion-like symptoms in 2010.

Snyder’s owned in just five percent of Yahoo leagues right now. He’s got solid secondary skills for a catcher, and ZiPS projects him to bat .240/.345/.417 for the rest of the year. You could do worse if you need some help behind the plate.

Thoughts on some catchers to start your day.

Chris Iannetta | Rockies | 4% Owned

A FanGraphs favorite, Iannetta has proven that with steady playing time comes production. But, Jim Tracy doesn’t care and prefers playing the inferior Miguel Olivo behind the dish most days. He is drawing interest from teams such as the Red Sox, but it looks like the Rockies may hold onto him as they continue to push for the playoffs. Make sure Iannetta is on your watch list, and be ready to pounce if something happens to Olivo (you didn’t hear it from me, but by the time you are reading this, he’ll have a broken leg).

Adam Moore | Mariners | 0% Owned

Even though his MLB stints have been brief, he has struggled mightily during his time in Seattle. He hit the DL earlier this year and has been playing in Tacoma (AAA) ever since. He’s hitting .303/.345/.404 in Tacoma, which is similar to the Triple-A line he put up last year. He’s already 26, so there is no better time than the present to bring Moore back to the majors. Moore should be relevant in deep keeper leagues, and should be kept an eye on in AL-only leagues, both redraft and keeper.

Ronny Paulino | Marlins | 12% Owned

Paulino has slipped under the radar this year due to his lack of name recognition, but he’s been a great low-risk option behind the plate. He won’t hit for much power or drive in a ton of runs, but his .274 batting average makes him an asset for some owners. If you are looking for a catcher who simply won’t hurt you, don’t be afraid to pick up Paulino.

John Jaso | Rays | 5% Owned

Jaso has gotten a good amount of attention in the saber-sphere due to his line drive and walk rates, but it hasn’t translated into fantasy owners picking him up. He has had some problems with BABIP during June and July, but that comes with the territory of being a platoon player (lower sample size). He’s a good buy in OBP leagues, but you could probably find a better option if you use AVG.