Updates: Napoli & Toronto’s Closer
Well, so much for that. Two of my recent posts were rendered obsolete or close to it in fell swoop yesterday. Time for some updates…
Yeah, no. The move to Texas again brings uncertainty about Napoli’s playing time, so we’re essentially right back where we started. He’s expected to get at-bats at first base, behind the plate, and at designated hitter for the Rangers, but he’s going to be competing with the likes of Michael Young, Mitch Moreland, and Yorvit Torrealba for playing time.
Napoli might just be destined for a career of fantasy frustration when it comes to consistent playing time, though I have a feeling Ron Washington won’t bog him down as much as Mike Scioscia, assuming he hits like he’s capable of.
Who’s Closing For The Blue Jays?
Toronto already has two solid but generally unspectacular closer options in Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch, but now yesterday’s trade adds Frank Francisco to the mix and confusion.
Francisco has quietly been on the game’s most dominant relievers over the last three seasons. His 10.89 K/9 since 2008 (11.6% swinging strikes) is seventh best in the game, just a notch above noted strikeout machines Hong-Chih Kuo, Brad Lidge, and Kerry Wood. When you remove intentional walks, you’ve got a rock solid 2.94 BB/9, and his platoon split is hardly anything to get worked up about (career 3.45 FIP vs. LHB, 3.65 vs. RHB).
The problem with Francisco has always been the long ball, unsurprising since his career ground ball rate barely cracks 30%. He’s surrendered 18 homers in the last three years, almost exactly one for every nine innings pitched. The shift in ballparks won’t haven’t much, if any impact according to StatCorner’s park factors, so an ERA in the high-3.00’s or low-4.00’s is likely. Francisco also has the closer pedigree, saving 25 in 2009 before losing his job to Neftali Feliz last April. I suspect that Octavio Dotel will still get the ninth inning job at the outset of the season, but his competition just got a little stiffer.
Submit your fan projections for Napoli and Francisco here and here, respectively.
Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.
I JUST traded for napoli 5 hrs before the trade went down yesterday. I traded wright (who I was dropping anyway) and danks for a very fair priced dunn and napoli.
wright is the best of the group… he will challenge anyone except dunn in homers and will have probably a .280+ BA and tons of runs, rbi, and a good number of steals. he is a fantasy and real life stud. idk if you count OPB, but he’s not too shabby there either.
Right, but his price tag was the same as napoli and dunn combined so I figured that was a fair trade off considering I was most likely going to release him. I have a surplus of good young cheap arms so danks was expendable in my eyes
i don’t know if the jays are really going to go with dotel as the closer…i mean, i really HOPE they don’t. one look at the guy’s platoon splits tell you that he should never be allowed to face decent lefties in high leverage situation.
francisco is definitely the jays best reliever now, and it sounds like AA’s been trying to get him all offseason. i’m betting he starts the year in the closer’s role and doesn’t give it up.
here’s where i got the AA going after francisco all offseason from: http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2011/1/25/1955958/alex-anthopoulos-on-the-frank-francisco-trade
also of note: napoli trade is good for arencibia
so lost in all this (IMO) is…why do the Blue Jays think they are better off with Francisco than Napoli? Their first baseman has been LYLE FREAKING OVERBAY the last few years, and unless I’m missing something they don’t really have a top 1B prospect waiting to step in (correct me if I’m wrong please). If they like Arencebia at catcher why not just slide Napoli over to first…and he can even be catcher insurance if Arencebia struggles. Is there some reason that Toronto, who everyone knows won’t be a serious contender in the AL East this year anyways, needs a *potentially* good closer on the wrong side of 30? Hitters in general are more valuable in general, and power hitters with Napoli’s potential aren’t as common these days as they used to be…especially those who can play 2 positions that Toronto could use depth at.
So FanGraphers – tell me why Toronto makes this deal?
I don’t think the Jays ever wanted Napoli. It was either send more cash or take over Napoli’s contract. They probably figured it wouldn’t be too hard to move him and they were right. The Jays already have 2 players on their roster who’s best position is DH, but can play 1B. With Napoli they would have had three such players. In Lind and Encarnacion, the thought might be that one of them could develop into a cheap option at 1B for a couple of years until they can develop someone. But they need to see what they can do. Napoli would have either taken at-bats away from them or from Arencibia. As for using Napoli as trade bait, for mid-season deals, you have a better chance of getting a good return from a reliever than from a position player.
Lind is likely the 1B going forward. I don’t think he’s as bad as he was in 2010, and if you split the difference between the 2 career years he’s an 825 OPS 118 OPS+ hitter. Not elite, but at least an upgrade compared to Overbay. I think he can do a bit better then that though.
My guess, is that AA is hoping to flip Fransisco at the deadline for prospects. He probably thinks that a CL might hold more value then a catcher at the trade deadline, even though Napoli provides better production. I don’t necessarily agree, but all it takes is one GM to overpay for a “closer”.
Either that, or he’s hoping Fransisco won’t accept arb next year and he’ll be a type “A” if Elias rankings are still around.
Agree with most of what Mark says, AA saves a little money picking up fancisco, and with 3 strong but no clear closer he can have his manager play the matchups like crazy… maybe hes gonna go for a completely new bullpen strategy, i mean you have to do something to compete, why not get three strong cost efficient closer types, have a K guy, good L, good R, GB type…
Napoli is alot like Arencibia, and will be alot more expensive when toronto is competitive again… might as well get arencibia a full slate of AB and see what you have there
yea i basically agree with mark.
although one thing i think we need to consider at this point is that maybe mlb teams don’t see napoli as a viable catcher at all (ie they see him as a -20 or worse defender there). given that the angels played mathis over him and the jays traded him for a good-but-not-elite reliever, it seems that he’s considered a mediocre 1B/DH option rather than a great offensive catcher
I think AA’s intent here was two-fold.
1-He’s had his eye on Francisco a while and once you catch his eye, he doesn’t seem like the type to let go
2-Assuming you get the usual production out of both players and Francisco is the “C”loser, next off-season, Francisco will likely be a type A that has the choice to remain a fairly priced closer or test the market and net 2 picks, Napoli will be a DH looking at a salary north of 6M in arbitration or 1 pick.
I think in the longterm AA made the right choice. In the short-term I would be inclined to think that the Rangers got the better end of teh deal.