ADP Crowdsourcing: Joe Mauer
In today’s ADP Crowdsourcing, we go back to looking at a star, and and are using pick number as our unit of measurement because of it.
Joe Mauer was a certifiable star heading into 2010 fantasy drafts. The catcher had hit close to 30 home runs, signed a massive extension and helped the Twins move into their new ballpark. His 2011 was far less spectacular, even though he ended up posting 5 WAR. Mauer ended 2010 with 9 homers, 88 runs scored and a .327 batting average. That line would have been more than acceptable from any other catcher, but after the numbers Mauer put up the year before, it was seen as a disappointment.
Mauer’s 2009 was clearly a blip on the radar, what with hitting 28 homers while stroking less than 30% fly balls (good for a 20.4% HR/FB%) and having a BABIP of .373. However, Mauer is still a great catcher and a solid fantasy option because of his sexy batting average and place in Minnesota’s batting order. While double-digit home runs would surely be a nice treat, Mauer doesn’t derive the majority of his value from dingers.
After disappointing some fans in 2011, where will Mauer be drafted? We can safely say he won’t be taken at the end of the first round like he was in 2010, but he should still be the first catcher off the board assuming someone doesn’t fall in love with Buster Posey. However, it’s unclear when Mauer’s power “potential” weighed with his consistently impressive batting average becomes too much to pass on and he is drafted.
We are still voting on where you think Mauer will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Also, please note we are pick number, not round this time because of Mauer’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.
To submit your vote, click here.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
I usually punt catchers, especially in a two-catcher AL-only keeper. But last draft, he went for 45 dollars. Let’s just say that team finished last, and I wouldn’t have spent that money.
On a snake, obviously he is the first catcher taken. But I can’t see anything higher than the 2nd round. Mid-2nd sounds about right…
I agree, both with around the 18th pick, and that I wouldn’t take him anywhere near there…
Mauer is great if you know you’re going to need padding with Avg., but the other numbers he brings in aren’t worth the high draft pick. Unless its a 2 catcher league, I’ll start thinking about catcher in the12th round
Zach, do you think you could add $ value (based on a $260 draft budget and the league format/scoring you reference) to the crowdsourcing polls? I think it would be helpful for those who play in auction leagues.
I second that (as well)
great idea.
err, thirded?
I would be tempted to take McCann as my first catcher. He is basically a lock for (.285/.360/.480) w/22-25 hr, 90-100 rbi
If you change the bounds to .275, 20, 75 I agree.
then you could logically do just fine with napoli… right?
I think Mauer’s value is uniquely high. In roto leagues (and to a lesser degree H2H) his average is very handy. But in both roto and head to head, where he really shines is Runs. Simply speaking, there is no catcher than holds a candle to him in Runs. This is very important for planning the rest of your team.
There is no harder category to make up in roto than runs and there is no more consistent/predictable production in H2H than runs. Good run producers who also do fine in the other categories are the best base for building a team. I can find a guy later in the draft/free agency who will help me in other categories where I have weaknesses and specifically target those categories. But, it’s a lot harder to target runs. All the guys with high runs are typically great players (and taken/expensive). Maybe there is some leadoff guy, but if he’s still left, his runs won’t be that good and the rest of his stats will be horrible.
So Joe Mauer gives you a big edge in runs on every other team from the get-go. Given the way the categories work and the way draft plays out and then trades/free agency, that’s just a massive edge. Yes, his overall value is probably more 3rd/4th round. But for a player that realizes all the strategic edge he gives you in selecting other guys, he’s a solid second rounder.
For instance, when I’ve got Joe Mauer, it’s a whole lot easier to nab the lower average power hitter (with mediocre run totals) that everyone else avoids because he doesn’t fit their needs late in the draft or free agency. You don’t take Joe Mauer early because of his actual value, you take Joe Mauer early because having him allows you a ton of flexibility to take other guys later and create more surplus value later.
raw numbers are always easier to make up. i understand the runs argument, but if that’s the difference, i’ll take me some posey all the way down to ianetta and get gardner/pierre later on for cheap.
There are certainly other ways to manage around taking other guys. The key to mauer, though, is that whatever you give up is so easy to manage. What happens when you don’t get gardner/pierre for instance? How many other options are there. What mauer lacks are they easiest things to make up in the game. You will have many more ways to make up for mauer late in the draft than probably any other player you overreach for. He’s so easy to manage your team around. And if you like to trade a lot (I do), he makes life beyond the draft easy too. Every player can theoretically be managed around with the right picks later. And under that theory, you always go for straight value. But it practice it doesn’t always work that way. And guys with easier stats to manage around do create value later by allowing you more flexibility.
To put it another way, in fantasy draft strategy terms, Mauer is the anti-Shaq.
One thing to factor into Joe Mauer and his large decline from last year is the park, which was one of the worst for hitters last year.