Sorry I missed you all for most of this weekend, so I’ll make sure to catch you up on the long weekend. There were some mighty stumbles this weekend, but none that should rock the closer grid. Per usual, there were the fair share of saves and only one that so far has made movement in the grid since you last saw it. Let’s talk about the falls first.
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Closer controversy in Houston, anyone? Maybe soon, but maybe not just yet. Ken Giles earned the nod in the ninth tonight with Luke Gregerson unavailable thanks to a combined 43 pitches in the last two evenings. Giles, who came over to Houston in the blockbuster offseason deal with Philadelphia, surrendered an earned run on a pair of singles but held on to notch his first save as an Astro.
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• Ben covered the Twins bullpen in fair detail last night, but we got to see them operated with one of those “lead” things today. Kevin Jepsen actually looked mildly competent in locking down save number four, tossing a clean inning working around a hit (striking out one). Of additional relevance is that the team moved Glen Perkins to the 60-day DL earlier in response to his latest setback (although this was somewhat procedural given that he wasn’t coming off the DL soon). As Ben pointed out, Jepsen remains the guy to own here but let’s not pretend his peripherals are good. While Paul Moliter confirmed what we’ve all seen (that guys like Fernando Abad will start seeing high-leverage innings), I’m not ready to sell all my shares of Trevor May yet. Yes, the 5.56 ERA is ugly, but the 15% SwStr% (top 25 in baseball) and 30% K% are elite. The walk rate remains below 10% and the SIERA sits at 2.86. Yeah, part of that .373 BABIP is the 37% Hard%, but the stuff is too good for him to be this bad going forward. He’s backed up in this pen based on his performance to date, but if there’s one guy you can buy here who possesses the biggest upside as a fantasy option in the second half, it’s May. I scooped him up dirt cheap in all my deep leagues.
• Trevor May was called on to finish out the third inning last night and although May recorded the final out his troubles continued as he allowed two hits and an earned run in the fourth. May still recorded two strikeouts and has a decent 3.51 xFIP with a fantastic strikeout rate (30%) but his recent outings have been downright terrible. Over his last five appearances spanning 3.1 innings pitched, May has allowed 15 baserunners and 10 earned runs. When you combine that performance along with entering the game in the third inning, it’s safe to say you have lost your role. I’ve moved Fernando Abad as the next-in-line and put Michael Tonkin on the grid with May exiting. Kevin Jepsen threw in a non-save situation last night allowing two earned and now supports a 5.89/5.30/4.86 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line. Gross. If May was cruising he’d be getting save opportunities by now as the back end of the Twins bullpen has collapsed. Jepsen is on red alert and I would snag Abad and Tonkin in that order for speculative saves. To add more to the confusion Tonkin pitched in the fourth and fifth inning tonight with Abad getting the last two outs in the ninth down three runs. Who really knows what’s going on in Minnesota.
For now Jepsen remains the closer and we’ll hopefully be able to glean more information on the Twins order of operations the next time they have a lead.
• Injury update for the Angels as Huston Street is heading to Arizona Friday for extended Spring Training. He also threw 20 pitches today and “could be back before the end of May.” All promising signs for Street as he comes back from a strained oblique and provided there aren’t any setbacks he should be replacing Joe Smith and return to his familiar role in the ninth very soon. Until then, Smith will close as he did tonight getting his sixth save.
After two rough outings in mid-May, Steve Cishek has bounced back in his last two save opportunities pitching two clean innings, and earning his 12th save today. The heart of the Seattle bullpen pitched well tonight, as Joaquin Benoit bounced back after giving up a run in his first appearance coming off the DL by pitching a clean inning today. Nick Vincent was also perfect today, as he has not allowed a run in five straight games, and could be inching his way up to the second in line designation. Vincent has appeared in twenty games this season and has only allowed an earned run in 3 of those appearances. He has 24 K’s in 19.1 innings with only 2 walks. For leagues that count holds, he can be a valuable asset right now as he earned his 9th hold of the year, and will help in the rest of your categories outside of saves (at least, so far).
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Sam Dyson was immediately thrust into action after being named closer for the Rangers, and his first appearance was not so hot, despite earning the save. He faced five batters, giving up two hits and one run, while striking out one. Tonight was a different, cleaner story as Dyson pitched a perfect inning earning his 4th save of the season. The rest of the Rangers bullpen has also been strong this weekend, particularly Jake Diekman striking out four over the pas two innings. Diekman is sporting a career best 35% K rate this season, as well as a career-low 6.2% BB rate. Based on usage, Diekman is certainly next in line if Dyson ends up struggling, but may not get the role because he is one of two lefties in the Rangers pen right now. Matt Bush is the sexy name right now, as he has impressed in his small sample so far in his call-up. Tonight he earned his first hold, going through the heart of the Astros line-up, giving up his first baserunners this season. He still struck out two and managed to get out of the mini-jam he created. I don’t see Dyson losing the closer role in the near future, so Diekman and Bush appear to be guys to lean on for those holds. We’ll also monitor Tolleson’s usage moving forward to see if all trust has been lost, or if he will be a primary source for holds as well.
Carson Smith was placed on the disabled list yesterday after returning to the Red Sox on May 3. He has only pitched in 3 games this season, and felt soreness in his elbow after pitching a long outing against Oakland on May 9th. Smith was supposed to be a major addition to the Red Sox pen, and although John Farrell does not think he will need surgery, there is always concerns when it comes to the elbow. Junichi Tazawa has pitched in that 7th inning role and has been excellent this season posting a 1.58 ERA (2.47 FIP) striking out 31.8% of the hitters he has faced. I wouldn’t be surprised if he soon takes over the 8th inning role, as Koji Uehera has not been his typical dominant self. The K’s are slightly down and the BB’s are slightly up. His ERA is up to 3.94 (3.09 FIP), which isn’t a huge alarm for concern, but Tazawa has just been that good.
Miguel Castro made his first appearance yesterday since being placed on the DL, pitching a scoreless 8th and surrendering only a double. I moved him back into the grid as second in line, but can easily see him jumping into the first in line very shortly. Castro has impressed in his brief appearances this season, but so has Carlos Estevez. Colorado has some nice arms in their pen and I am curious to see how this scenario plays out the whole season. I predicted McGee to get 40 saves in my bold prediction piece, and I think he is still in line for that. He just has unexpected protection before him, and this would go a long way to legitimizing part of Colorado’s pitching staff.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
Unlike most Thursdays, tonight has been a relatively slow night around the league’s bullpens. So we’ll touch on just a couple of items that come to mind at the time of this writing.
As Colin noted in last night’s edition of the Bullpen Report, Jeremy Jeffress blew his first save of the season after he surrendered an earned run on a walk and a hit. But that’s not why Tyler Thornburg earned the call in tonight’s save situation for Milwaukee. Skip signaled for Thornburg because Jeffress took the bump five of the previous six days — the guy just needed some rest. Thornburg fanned two but also allowed two free passes in a 30-pitch effort to notch his first save of the ‘16 season (and in his career!). Jeffress’ is still green, but that shouldn’t take away from Thornburg’s early season success. Entering tonight’s outing, we saw a nice spike in velocity across each of his offerings, a huge spike in K-BB% (30.9%) and a healthy 11.5% SwStr%. SIERA (1.91) and xFIP (2.20) also think Thornburg has pitched better than his 4.32 ERA indicates. For those in holds leagues — he does have eight on the season — Thornburg should be considered, but is likely owned in most of those formats despite just 1% ownership in the Y! Game.
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• The Shawn Tolleson ride is over (at least, for now). One night after giving up a walk-off granny to Khris Davis, the Rangers righty was relieved of his ninth inning duties. He hasn’t been quite as bad as the 9+ ERA would indicate (.351 BABIP with a near-career norm LD%), but the walks are up and the whiffs are (way) down. Neither are a good combination. Unfortunately for Tolleson, this may not be a temporary demotion, either. Sam Dyson takes over the gig and has one of the most lethal sinkers in the game. He also has seen a drop in K% in 2016 but you can get away with that when you are getting groundballs on 70% of those put in play against you. Obviously Dyson is a must-own across the board, although he was likely gone in the majority of leagues where saves are at a premium long ago. If you’re a Tolleson owner — first, sorry — but I’d try and spin him as a “just-taking-a-break-closer” to a less suspecting owner — I don’t think he’s getting the saves back anytime soon.
A few belated bullpen notes from last night:
• Joe Smith is 4/5 on saves in place of Huston Street but is also supporting a mediocre 3.60/4.45/4.56 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line. Never known as a strikeout artist, Smith was usually around league average but has seen his strikeout rate dip to 15.5% this year. His job isn’t in danger but it’s worth noting that Fernando Salas saved his second game of the year last night, throwing a perfect ninth lowering his ERA to 2.29. That ERA will creep up as he likely won’t keep a .229 BABIP all year but if Smith falters, Salas could start seeing more ninths. Huston Street remains on the DL with an oblique injury and although he played catch last week, he’s still a few weeks away from a return but will regain the ninth once he comes back.