While Saves matter little in real baseball, they’re a still a common category in Roto leagues. Owners have taken several draft day approaches to acquiring Saves. Some owners get at least two elite guys. Others scrape the bottom of the barrel. A few ignore them completely on draft day and get Saves off the waiver wire. Or the owners just ignore the category. The reason to ignore Saves on draft day is the highly perceived closer turnover rate. But what is the rate? That is what I want to answer over the next couple weeks as I collect and verify information on previous preseason closer expectations and how the expectations worked out.

The main roadblock from getting the analysis done is good information. At my advanced age, my memory isn’t great, so I will ask for some help from our readers. I have gone through the player updates from RotoWire (available on each of FanGraphs player pages) to see how long each preseason closer last in the role. Can you please check my work to see if I am right, especially where I have question marks?

Once the data has been verified correct, I will go back and crunch the numbers for some historical numbers.

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Spring training is just days away, and that’s our queue to take stock of bullpens around the majors. This is the first of six installments that will take a look at how bullpens are lining up, one division at a time. We begin with the National League Central.

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Happy Friday everyone! There have been quite a few updates since our last check-in so let’s get started…

• As expected, Aroldis Chapman signed with the New York Yankees. Along with some concerns about his off the field conduct, Chapman certianly will boost the Yankees bullpen. We saw this last year with the three-headed monster that also included Andrew Miller. Brian Cashman is still looking for a lefty in the pen and although he won’t find an Andrew Miller, the Chapman, Betances, Tyler Clippard and co. grouping should still be elite. The Yankees will give Luis Severino a fair shot to make it in the rotation but consider myself aligned with the skeptics. He has struggled to find a third pitch, he can’t consistently put hitters away, and navigating a lineup multiple times has been an issue. But damn does he look compelling in the pen! He’s currently far closer to starting games than finishing them but I like Severino in the bullpen for multiple innings, strikeouts and ratio help, if/when he ends up there.

Yankees Updated Grid: Aroldis Chapman // Dellin Betances // Tyler Clippard // Luis Severino (Sleeper)

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It’s too early in the offseason to put together an updated grid as there are too many open spaces due to both Free Agency and unassigned roles. However, we won’t let the Bullpen Report be forgotten this winter and once a week we will check in with updates around the league that will affect your yearly chase for saves and holds.

• With relief aces Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and in some respects, Mark Melancon still on the market, the Cardinals went straight for Brett Cecil locking him up for four years and $30.5M. Dave Cameron listed Cecil has a potential 2017 bargain and Cecil signed a more team-friendly deal than Cameron even projected. Seung Hwan Oh is entrenched in the closer’s chair in St. Louis but with Trevor Rosenthal working to become a starter, Cecil should find his way to some high leverage innings along with fellow lefty Kevin Siegrist. The Cardinals have a lot of starting pitching depth, so Rosenthal isn’t assured a rotation spot by any means but it does mean his days of pitching high leverage spots in St. Louis might be coming to an end. Relief roles are changing rapidly, especially during the playoffs and while it’s impossible to carry over Andrew Miller’s October usage to April, it is possible that more teams will have relievers for multiple innings and that’s what I would guess the Cardinals are doing here.

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Stretch run for leagues, so let’s break down some of the questionable bullpens as you push towards that head-to-head or roto crown.

– The entire Houston bullpen has been leading bullpen headlines the last few days. Friday night, Ken Giles had a potentially fantasy-losing outing, giving up 6 earned runs against the Angels. While it is of little solace to owners, the outing wasn’t as terrible as the numbers suggested, with a couple close pitches and a lot of weak contact (aside from a two-run dinger) going against Giles. That said, he definitely wasn’t available Saturday and managed to get in the news anyways thanks to being smoked on the wrist by a liner during BP. With Giles down, the rest of the bullpen perhaps dashed Houston’s slim playoff changes by giving up 9 runs late in the game.

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Seattle’s Edwin Diaz was called on for the four-out save and was tasked with facing the heart of Toronto’s line-up. After striking out Josh Donaldson to end the 8th, he then struck out Edwin Encarnacion to start the 9th and had to face Jose Bautista with a one-run lead. Well, Bautista took him deep for his second blown save of the season and the first earned run he had given up since August 30th when he blew his first save against Texas as well. The Mariners would win in the bottom of the 12th taking Diaz off the hook as Nick Vincent got his fourth win and R.A. Dickey gave up an unearned run to suffer his 15th loss.

Jeurys Familia suffered his fifth blown save of the season, although it was not your traditional one out save. With two on and one out in the 8th, Familia was called on for the 5-out save. After a double steal put two runners in scoring position and the Braves down by one, Matt Kemp would hit a sacrifice fly to tie the game, even though the run was unearned for set-up man Addison Reed as the runner, Ender Inciarte, reached on an error by James Loney. Familia would get out of the inning and come on for the 9th, when the Braves scored with two singles, a sac bunt, and a fielder’s choice. The game was not over as Jim Johnson came on in the 9th for the Braves looking for the sweep. After giving up a hit and a walk, with two outs Yoenis Cespedes stepped up to the plate and ripped one to deep center that looked like it was gone and would’ve given the Mets the dramatic win. Inciarte, however, would strike again and robbed Cespedes of a homer to secure Johnson’s 17th save.

Quick Hits: With Ken Giles unavailable after pitching two straight days, Luke Gregerson came on for his first save opportunity since July 6th. He gave up an unearned run, but managed to hold on for the save (15). Daniel Hudson held on for the 4-out save (4) in Arizona. Andrew Bailey (4), Tony Watson (15), and Cody Allen (15) all earned saves tonight, with Allen giving up a run in the 9th.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

A quick bullpen report as many head-to-head guys head into the last week of the semis.

– It appears the end of times may be upon us for Santiago Casilla. The maligned Giants’ stopper had already given up his stranglehold on the closer gig but kept hurting San Francisco’s playoff chances by taking a blown save/loss last night to the Cardinals. Admittedly, he didn’t get a clean inning, as Sergio Romo put a runner on before him, but that didn’t mollify fans. Casilla hasn’t been really that different of a pitcher in 2016 than his last couple seasons (outside of luck-based factors controlling his ERA). That said, relief leverage (especially in September) is a “what have you done for me lately kind of thing?” and Casilla’s ERA over the last month is ~8.00. With no RP pitching exceptionally well in this bullpen, it’s a bit of a dice roll to who is up next. Sergio Romo has the pedigree and a decent ERA over the last month, but he’s walking too many guys. Hunter Strickland is somewhat the opposite — unproven, decent peripherals, but bad performances lately. Derek Law and Will Smith might get the next shot (depending on handedness) but only Bruce Bochy knows. I’d stay away from here unless desperate.

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Tyler Thornburg has pretty much been nails since taking over the ninth-inning role for the Brewers following the trade deadline deals of both Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith. He’s accumulated the second-most WAR among qualified relievers over the last month (0.6 WAR) thanks in part to a pretty 0.00 ERA (2.71 FIP) and successfully converting five saves in six opportunities. Tonight, Thornburg needed four outs and 33 pitches (18 strikes – eight called, one swinging) to earn his 10th save of the season, but surrendered a hit and a couple of free passes along the way. All is green in Milwaukee for Thornburg.
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Let’s throw another name into the mess known as the Giant’s bullpen. Derek Law was activated and pitched for the Giants for the first time since August 27th. He struck out the only batter he faced down 3-1 in the 9th, as Bochy said he will not use him high leverage situations just yet. Law has had a very strong year with a 1.93 ERA (2.30 WHIP), and could see some 9th inning chances as the season winds down and the Giants bullpen continues to struggle. For now, he is off the grid.

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• Some strange things going on in San Francisco. Santiago Casilla lost his role as closer earlier and Hunter Strickland who recorded a save on the 11th proceeded to give up four runs last night. Steven Okert, a lefty in the Giants pen, relieved Strickland in the ninth but promptly blew the save after allowing a homer to Ryan Schimpf. Bruce Bochy confirmed that Strickland is still his closer but Derek Law is due back today making Strickland’s leash considerably tighter. Sergio Romo and Will Smith might just be considered righty and lefty specialists at this point but they could possibly see some more chances and I wouldn’t fully rule out Casilla either, depending on how he finishes the year.

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