Oops. I was very wrong about Javier Baez, but man what a year he enjoyed. With a .290/.326/.554 triple slash en route to a .366 wOBA, this was a full breakout for the former top prospect. For his reward, he finished in second place in this year’s National League MVP voting. So let’s discuss what drove the breakout.
Ronald Acuña Jr. won the NL Rookie of the Year on Monday evening. That isn’t much of a surprise, but the fact that he ran away with it was kind of shocking. I didn’t see a major difference between Acuña and Juan Soto and could’ve truly seen the award going either way, so I was a little taken aback when Acuña nabbed 27 of the 30 first-place votes.
It wasn’t always a foregone conclusion that Acuña would be a ROY frontrunner this year as he had a .779 OPS in 129 PA before a left ACL sprain shelved him for a month. He took off when he returned, meeting and even exceeding the lofty expectations placed upon super-prospect. His numbers in the 82 games post-injury were probably good enough for the Rookie of the Year on their own and it’s why he has surged into the top 20 of early 2019 drafts.
Acuña put together a blistering .304/.380/.589 line with 21 HR, 51 RBI, 59 R, and 14 SB in 358 PA. Pace those out to a full season and you’re looking at 42-101-117-28. I’m not saying you should pace those numbers as a 2019 expectation, but rather I’m just showing how insane he was over the second half of the season.
When tonight’s NL Rookie of the Year award is announced, Harrison Bader’s name will be mentioned in passing, if at all. The finalists are Ronald Acuña Jr., Juan Soto, and Walker Buehler so guys like Bader, Brian Anderson, and Jack Flaherty will likely only get a hat tip for their seasons before the winner is crowned.
In late-August, Jeff Sullivan did a great job highlighting Bader’s case for ROY based primarily on his excellent defense. That piece is definitely worth a look as Bader finished with 3.5 WAR, just behind the 3.7 that both Acuña and Soto logged, but I’ll be looking at his season from the fantasy angle and looking ahead to 2019.
While most of the fantasy community fawns over young talent, many overlooked Whit Merrifield’s breakthrough in 2017. In NFBC drafts prior to the 2018 season Merrifield only carried an average draft position of 69th overall, at a time when stolen bases prove to be difficult to procure in spite of being one season removed from 80 runs, 19 home runs, 78 RBI, 34 stolen bases and a solid .288/.324/.438 slash line in 148 games. Perhaps his late age breakout caused fantasy owners to be wary of him repeating it this year. Read the rest of this entry »
In the first significant trade of the offseason, the Rays sent Mallex Smith and outfield prospect Jake Fraley to the Mariners for Mike Zunino, Guillermo Heredia and minor-league lefty Michael Plassmeyer on Thursday. Smith was a key part of the Rays’ surprising 90-win season, and in finishing as the 15th-ranked outfielder in Roto value (per ESPN’s Player Rater), he was a revelation for fantasy owners as well.
As is the case for many breakout players, Smith’s rise had much to do with playing time. 2018 was his first full season in the majors, and Kevin Cash penciled his name into the starting lineup 127 times. An increased role was not the whole story, as the 25-year-old did improve his skill set in a couple of important ways. Smith became a better contact hitter, which enabled him to reduce his strikeout rate from 22.1 percent over his first two seasons to 18.0 percent in 2018. That, along with a .301 batting average on ground balls, helped Smith to bat a career-high .296 overall.
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Next Monday, a new AL Rookie of the Year will be crowned, and it won’t be Jaime Barria. Though he made 26 starts in his first major league season, giving the Angels 129.1 innings of much-needed solid pitching, Barria did not grab many headlines. He made only moderate waves in fantasy circles. In CBS leagues, which tend to run deep, Barria’s ownership and activation rates peaked in early September, when he was rostered in 55 percent of leagues and started in 36 percent.
Even though the Angels’ righty finished with 10 wins and a 3.41 ERA, he ranked just 73rd among starting pitchers in Roto value (per ESPN’s Player Rater). Barria’s ERA was slimmed down by an 82.1 percent strand rate and .271 BABIP, so fantasy owners can’t be blamed for thinking he was not truly a top-75 starter. Pitchers with an 18.3 percent strikeout rate tend to not draw much interest in fantasy, and Barria did not overcome his relative lack of Ks with an avoidance of walks or homers. His walk rate was 8.8 percent, and he finished with a 1.18 HR/9. Suspicions about Barria’s value were validated by SIERA, FIP and xFIP, all of which exceeded 4.50.
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One reason the Atlanta Braves surprised the baseball world and won the National League East was the strength of the team’s starting pitching. Sean Newcomb turned in a 2 WAR/3.90 ERA season; Anibal Sanchez reinvented himself at age-34; and several youngsters (Michael Soroka, Touki Toussaint) were effective in limited action. But without Mike Foltynewicz’ stellar season, the Braves may not have turned into NL East champs ahead of schedule in 2018.
It feels like fake advertising to label Stephen Piscotty’s 2018 as a breakout, but his ability to rebound from adversity and outproduce his 2016 season turned out to be a boon to patient fantasy owners. After cratering in 2017, Piscotty’s preseason average draft position plummeted falling to the 19th round in NFBC formats as the 72nd outfielder drafted. His trade to Oakland and declining health of his mother also created questions about potential production fueling his depressed draft stock. Read the rest of this entry »
By the end of this weekend, we may have seen our last innings of baseball for this season, but we will almost certainly get at least one more chance to watch Nathan Eovaldi. (I am personally just rooting for more baseball.) He has grabbed the spotlight this postseason, excelling in a pair of starts and in three relief appearances in which he set up for Craig Kimbrel. If needed, Eovaldi could be used as the bridge to Kimbrel again in Game 3, but if not, then we may see him as the Red Sox’s Game 4 starter.
It’s not only for the potential of postseason heroics that it’s worth taking one last peek at Eovaldi in 2018. It’s been a breakout season for the 28-year-old, though his 6-7 record and 3.81 ERA would suggest otherwise. In his first season back from his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi was better than ever in just about every regard aside from ground ball and home run rates and ERA, and the latter was inflated by a 67.3 percent strand rate. His walk (4.4 percent), swinging strike (10.7 percent) and O-Swing (33.9 percent) rates were all career bests, and his 22.2 percent strikeout rate was nearly four percentage points better than his previous high water mark (18.5 percent in 2016).
Although the Rays made headlines with their “Opener” strategy, they also provided some under the radar fantasy performers in 2018 including Joey Wendle. He did not enter the season as a starter, but provided value to those who added him during the season. Of all major league rookies, Wendle finished first in average (.300), fifth in on-base percentage (.354), third in hits (146), third in doubles (33), first in triples (six) and tied for second in stolen bases (16).
It’s never easy to buy into older breakouts, Wendle will turn 29 next April, but ignoring late bloomers could be a mistake as well. Case in point, Whit Merrifield who built on his strong 2017 by leading the majors in stolen bases this season. Read the rest of this entry »