Last week, I reviewed my 2017 bold hitter league leaders. Not surprisingly, I went 0 for 10, but earned a couple of “spirit wins”. Since these are far more difficult to get right than bold predictions, a spirit win is still a positive result. Let’s see if I performed any better on the pitching side. Here is my original article and explanations.
Last year, I finished with 3.5 out of 10 bold predictions correct. This year, I hoped to at least match that while also providing bolder predictions. I failed. In fact, I failed miserably and doled out what was probably the worst bold prediction in the history of the series. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the outcome of my bold predictions. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s hard to luck into a .300 batting average, but that is pretty much what happened with my bold predictions. Two of the three calls I got right — Jose Quintana’s high ERA and Nick Castellanos‘ admittance into the 25-homer club — could be at least partially explained by this season’s home run explosion. The remaining seven predictions did not age well, but they have given me new perspectives on several players, including Yuli Gurriel and Jean Segura.
1. Tom Koehler will be roughly as valuable as Matt Moore.
Moore lived down to expectations, but Koehler was still far less valuable than he was. Koehler’s slider, which was key to an extended run of success in 2016, was not an effective pitch for him in 2017. His O-Swing rate on the pitch dropped substantially, from 44.7 to 34.2 percent, and his slider strikeout rate went down, while his Iso went up. Those trends ultimately led to Koehler’s ouster from the Marlins’ rotation, though it provided him with a fresh start in the Blue Jays’ bullpen.
WRONG (0/1)
Read the rest of this entry »
Well, the season is over, and it is time to review Bold Predictions. In my midseason check in I wrote the following to describe my position on Bold Predictions:
I think these should be fun and spark conversation. As a result, they should probably be controversial, at least in part. There should be a reason for each pick, and the reason shouldn’t necessarily be built on a strong hypothesis. If you have a solid reason to believe something then you aren’t talking about a bold prediction, it is just a normal prediction. Bold predictions should be built on a questionable foundation, that’s the fun part.
Today I will not get into the deeper reasons for each prediction, you can read the mid season check in to find those. Instead, let’s get down to brass tacks. How’d I do? Read the rest of this entry »
I’m not sure I have this whole bold predictions thing figured out. As has been the case for me in the past, several of my predictions this season produced useful fantasy advice. In particular, avoiding Jake Arrieta and drafting Jose Berrios, Dylan Bundy, Ender Inciarte, and Luke Weaver would have helped your team. But that was not enough to make any of my predictions actually correct.
Since I seemingly enjoy embarrassing myself at the end of the season, I go one step further from just the regular bold predictions. I also boldly predict the league leaders in each of the five fantasy hitting and pitching categories! Here are my picks and initial thought process. It’s a miracle if I even get one of these correct. Let’s see how I did.
American League
Batting Average – Manny Machado
I keep choosing him thanks to his strong strikeout rate and massive power, with the hopes he could finally cure his pop-up problem and enjoy some good batted ball fortune for a change. Not this season! He actually posted a career low .265 BABIP that led to a weak .259 average. Not only did he fail to correct his pop-up issues, but he also forgot how to hit line drives. Since he finished strong, he probably won’t come at much of a discount next year.
0 for 1
I talked a big game about my bold predictions this year spawning from research. Like, instead of just being gut instinct types of things, or just being bold for the sake of being bold. Truth of it is I didn’t do as much research as I would’ve liked. My rotisserie-league drafts were not particularly strong, and while I hit the trifecta (1st, 2nd, 3rd) in my three home leagues (I live modestly), I could simply feel my drafts, as well as my bold predictions, were inferior relative to what I hoped they’d be.
You probably don’t care, though, so this is all filler text, for all intents and purposes. You want to cut to the chase. I don’t blame you! Let me drag this out a bit longer. I’ll review each prediction from March with their corresponding midseason “probabilities” of being correct from July before finally reaching a verdict. I don’t remember half the predictions and I honestly have no idea how I’ll do until I reach the end.
Last year was my first attempt at making bold predictions here at RotoGraphs, and it didn’t go very well (1/10 correct, with Kyle Hendricks my lone win). This year things looked better at mid-season, but let’s take a look at the final results!
I take immense pride in my ability to set a sufficiently low bar. Exhibit A: 2016’s Bold Predictions. I got one. One right. The downside to that is self-explanatory. The upside is that any improvement would make for a dramatic one. So let’s see how I did?
All rankings used are from ESPN’s Player Rater Read the rest of this entry »
Time for the final review of Bold Predictions. I checked in on them back in mid-July and unfortunately, things didn’t get much better for me!
James Paxton Is A Top-15 Arm.
In the end, the injury sank this one as Paxton wound up with just 24 starts. However, he posted a 2.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in the 136 IP and still slotted 18th on ESPN’s Player Rater among SP. It’s a loss by the letter of the law as he’s not a top-15 arm at season’s end, but even with the sub-150 IP output, I can’t imagine anyone feels like they lost out by taking Paxton. I’m going to take half-credit on this one if that’s OK.
0.5 for 1 (.500)