It’s Bold Prediction time!! After a 2-for-10 performance last year (and even that took some favorable grading), I’m ready to go off this year and bat at least .500! The funny thing is I’d love to repeat some of mine last year despite missing on them in 2017. Delino DeShields made mine last year and now he’s a draft darling surging up the board. I like Blake Treinen to be a strong closer and could still see that Carlos Martinez sub-2.50 ERA season! But don’t worry, I have 10 fresh Bold Predictions ready for you – five hitters and five pitchers.

Let’s do this! You’ll never guess who’s leading off?

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After an crushing last season’s BOLD predictions, it’s time to regress with some outlandish claims focusing on their average draft position (ADP).

#1 Dinelson Lamet will end the season as a top-30 pitcher.

Lamet has two factors pointing him having a great 2018 season. First, he posted a 10.9 K/9 in 114 major league innings. Additionally, he made 29 starts between Triple-A and the majors. If he has just a little bit of batted ball luck (and hopefully develop a third pitch), his production will soar.

#2 Gregory Bird will outproduce Aaron Judge.

I’m both high on Bird and low on Judge. With Bird, he’s finally healthy and will join Judge in the middle of the Yankees lineup. I don’t believe in Judge’s high BABIP and batting average. I think both will sink quite a bit dragging down both is RBI and Runs totals.

#3 Adrian Beltre will outperform his ADP (158) and be a top-75 player.

I have no idea how Beltre is going in the so late in drafts. While dealing with injuries last season, he hit 17 HR with a .312 AVG in 389 PA. I’d rather have Beltre over Shaw who is going around pick 90. I’ll wait four to five rounds and own Beltre.

#4 Luis Severino will outproduce all but one of the top-4 starters. Read the rest of this entry »

This is my fifth year of Bold Predictions, and I find them to be no less of a headache today than I did back in 2014, when I boldly predicted 20+ homers for Jon Singleton, and a top-40 fantasy outfielder season for Abraham Almonte. That said, I think I’m pretty close to the Bold Predictions Sweet Spot of 30% correct this year, as these are all varying degrees of “unlikely but not outrageous.” Also, I had more fun with these than I usually do, so that has to count for something. I’m sure I’ll hear from all the die-hard Whit Merrifield zealots in the comments section regardless.

Here we go!

1. Eugenio Suarez is a top-10 third baseman

Fresh off signing a 7-year, $66 million contract extension with the Reds, the 26-year-old Suarez has a lot to prove this year. I’m quite confident that Cincinnati’s front office will feel very good about that deal, and so will his fantasy owners. The good news started last year, when Suarez massively increased his walk rate for the second year in a row — from 4.3% BB in 2015, to 8.1% in 2016, to 13.3% in 2017 — while also recording a career-best 23.3% strikeout rate.

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I’m taking a break from March Madness to bring you the madness of me thinking I can get some of my bold predictions right this year.

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This means we’re actually getting close to official baseball, right? It’s bold prediction season and you know the drill (with an Ottoneu context), so let’s get started.

1. Freddie Freeman achieves 8.0 WAR

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Yep, that’s right. It’s bold predictions season. Unless you’re a newbie, you already know how this game is played. I predict 10 things I think are plausible but unlikely to happen. I’ll be aiming for a 20 to 30 percent success rate. You comment about how I wasn’t bold.

Last year, I did an informal experiment. I found I was more accurate when making negative predictions. Thus, to increase the difficulty level, here are 10 positive predictions.

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I’m a little late to the Bold Prediction review party due to taking a brief hiatus this October. It’s time to play a little catch-up on end-of-season content.

This year, I decided to try a little experiment, I made 10 predictions using positive language and 10 more using negative language. It’s always been my impression that it’s easier to get a negative prediction right. Let’s see how I did this year. I’m going to organize this in the most confusing way possible, bundling by number. You’ll see what I mean.

Typically, I aim for a 20 percent success rate with these picks.

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Last week, I reviewed my 2017 bold hitter league leaders. Not surprisingly, I went 0 for 10, but earned a couple of “spirit wins”. Since these are far more difficult to get right than bold predictions, a spirit win is still a positive result. Let’s see if I performed any better on the pitching side. Here is my original article and explanations.

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Last year, I finished with 3.5 out of 10 bold predictions correct. This year, I hoped to at least match that while also providing bolder predictions. I failed. In fact, I failed miserably and doled out what was probably the worst bold prediction in the history of the series. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the outcome of my bold predictions. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s hard to luck into a .300 batting average, but that is pretty much what happened with my bold predictions. Two of the three calls I got right — Jose Quintana’s high ERA and Nick Castellanos‘ admittance into the 25-homer club — could be at least partially explained by this season’s home run explosion. The remaining seven predictions did not age well, but they have given me new perspectives on several players, including Yuli Gurriel and Jean Segura.

1. Tom Koehler will be roughly as valuable as Matt Moore.

Moore lived down to expectations, but Koehler was still far less valuable than he was. Koehler’s slider, which was key to an extended run of success in 2016, was not an effective pitch for him in 2017. His O-Swing rate on the pitch dropped substantially, from 44.7 to 34.2 percent, and his slider strikeout rate went down, while his Iso went up. Those trends ultimately led to Koehler’s ouster from the Marlins’ rotation, though it provided him with a fresh start in the Blue Jays’ bullpen.

WRONG (0/1)
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