Rylan Edwards’ 2017 Bold Predictions – A Review

I take immense pride in my ability to set a sufficiently low bar. Exhibit A: 2016’s Bold Predictions. I got one. One right. The downside to that is self-explanatory. The upside is that any improvement would make for a dramatic one.  So let’s see how I did?

All rankings used are from ESPN’s Player Rater 

Bold Prediction #1: Mike Zunino finishes as a top 12 catcher

Huzzah! I really wanted to be right about this one, more so than any other. The Mike Zunino tale is a cautionary one and at this point, the Mariners fan base roots for him unabashedly. Building off of a strong though short 2016 stint with the big club, the mercurial slugger struggled early in 2017. Hitting just .223/.288/.455 in the first half, Zunino had a second half as beefy as his lumberjack forearms. He ended the season with career highs in batting average, OBP, slugging, and home runs finishing 7^th among catchers on ESPN’s Player Rater. Good on you, Big Mike.

Batting: 1-for-1

 

Bold Prediction #2: Justin Bour hits 25 homers

I got a little flack in the comments section for this prediction. Apparently, some thought it not bold enough. But for a worm-burner playing in one of the league’s worst ballparks for homers, who’d neither previously hit lefties nor amassed 450 plate appearances, I thought reaching his 90^th percentile PECOTA projection was sufficiently bold. And you know what? Justin Bour barely scraped that mark, finishing with 25 exactly.

And my concerns were largely validated. Bour again failed to reach 450 plate appearances (finishing with 429) and only marginally lowered his ground-ball rate. He did however, improve vastly against southpaws, finishing with a 112 wRC+ in 98 plate appearances; both marks represent career highs. With a .902 OPS and impressive though short-lived appearance in the home run derby, Bour has likely lost his anonymity and the sleeper status that many of the FanGraphs faithful enjoyed this year.

Batting: 2-for-2

 

Bold Prediction #3: Carlos Martinez finishes Top 5 in NL Cy Young Voting

Admittedly, I was feeling pretty smug for this pick through the first half the season. Entering the all-star break, Carlos Martinez sported a 3.15 ERA and 27.5% strikeout rate. He struggled a bit with the free pass but he otherwise looked every bit the ace I thought he was. Then the calendar flipped. Martinez’ BABIP and HR/FB% ticked up and though he managed to reduce his walks, he also reduced his strikeouts as well.

In the end, you can’t really complain. He finished the season a top 20 fantasy starter and a pretty good one in reality as well. Martinez ranked 9^th in the NL in WAR, 2^nd in innings, 4^th in strikeouts, and 12^th in ERA. I suppose that makes him a fringe candidate for the Top 5 in NL Cy Young voting but I still think he misses the cut in the end.

Batting: 2-for-3

 

Bold Prediction #4: Aaron Nola strikes out 175 batters and finishes the season with an ERA under 3.

Aaron Nola reached the 175 strikeout mark but posted an ERA of 3.54. The young Philly pitched beautifully this year and his ERA isn’t indicative of the quality of his stuff nor his impeccable command. He’s not an ace in the making; he’s an ace right now.

Batting: 2-for-4

 

Bold Prediction #5: Jackie Bradley Jr. finishes 2017 as a top 10 OF in OBP leagues

Mmmmmm, pie. Humble pie.

Batting: 2-for-5

 

Bold Prediction #6: Gregory Polanco is a top 10 OF in Mixed Leagues

It was a pretty disappointing season across the board for Gregory Polanco. All of his 2016 gains vanished. His power never showed up and he took a step backwards against southpaws. Polanco’s speed score also dropped by 34%. The injury bug has bitten Gregory Polanco pretty hard over the last season and a half both above and below the waste. That explains a lot , if not all of, his struggles. I’m hoping for a return to health in 2018 but I’m not holding my breath.

Batting: 2-for-6

 

Bold Prediction #7: Hector Neris saves 30 games

Not that it was particularly hard to do so but Hector Neris wrestled the closer role away from Jeanmar Gomez fairly early in the season. He finished with 26 saves, blowing 3. So even if he was perfect, he’d still have fallen short of 30. Close but not quite. That’s five misses in a row. It’s safe to say I’ve lost my momentum.

Batting: 2-for-7

 

Bold Prediction #8: 2017 is the year of the multi-inning relief ace

The motivation behind this prediction was that I thought chasing saves from marginal closers would be an even more precarious endeavor in 2017 than it had been historically. And rather than bottom feed on low-tier closers, it’d behoove owners to rack up strikeouts and elite rate stats from multi-inning relievers instead. I quantified this by saying:

My bold prediction is that 5 or more of the top 30 relievers will  have averaged at least 1.25 innings per relief appearance.

Now, just to provide context, in 2016 the top 30 relievers averaged 1.00 innings per appearance. And the closest any one of them came to sniffing 1.25 innings per appearance was Dan Otero at 1.13 so nobody would have made the cut last season.

In 2017, 3 of the top 30 relievers (actual relievers not just RP-eligible) averaged 1.25 innings! They were Chad Green (1.72 innings/gm), Yusmeiro Petit (1.48), and Chris Devenski (1.29). Another 3, Raisel Iglesias, Mike Minor, and Alex Claudio averaged more than the 1.13 innings/game mark that Otero set last year. I may have been a year too early on this one but I’m still pleased with the results.

Batting 2-for-8

 

Bold Prediction #9: Tyler Flowers finishes 2017 as a top 15 catcher in mixed leagues.

I touted Tyler Flowers‘ deep league bonafides pretty hard during my time at FanGraphs, first in 2016 in a Deep League Waiver Wire article and then again this past pre-season previewing the position for deep league drafts. I’m a huge fan of his batted ball profile and how he’s steadily improved his strikeout rate over his career. And he did more of the same in 2017.

Flowers finished with an impressive .281/.378/.445 slash line, while hitting 12 homers in just 370 plate appearances. Even with time missed to injury, Flowers was a top-12 fantasy catcher this season. I’ll certainly be targeting him again next year even in standard mixed league drafts.

Batting 3-for-9

 

Bold Prediction #10: Congratulations, Yoenis Cespedes, 2017’s NL MVP!

Ugh. Health was a concern in making this pick and I said as much in my prediction. Still, Cespedes under performed this year though I’m not sure he was ever fully healthy once he pulled his hammy the first time. Electric when he plays, his growing history of lower body maladies should discount his value a bit next season. In case you were wondering, La Potencia finished the season with 1.6 WAR, 7^th on his own team. Behind Seth Lugo.

Batting 3-for-10

Bonus Bold Prediction: Junior Guerra shalt rock thy world

If thy world was rocked, it was not rocked by Junior Guerra.

 

So, I hit 3 out of 10, which is what we aim for when making these. I also came close on another few and have an outside shot at a fourth depending on how the NL Cy Young vote goes down. It’s amazing what happens when your bold predictions don’t involve Chris Heston.