Archive for A Closer Look

Abraham Toro Makes You Believe

There are a number of players who have seen a change in playing time post-trade deadline. Abraham Toro moved into a near everyday role upon Alex Bregman’s injury and was consistently hitting towards the bottom of the order. But, since being traded to Seattle, Toro has found himself hitting in the 5 spot, keeping his everyday role intact, only at second base rather than third. It is likely that Toro would have found himself back on the bench, or worse, as Bregman nears a return from injury. Since moving to Seattle, Toro still does not have the most crystal clear path towards an everyday role, but it’s getting clearer. The Mariners Depth Chart shows a lot of interchangeable pieces and it’s not clear whether or not Toro will continue to fill the 2B spot if his bat begins to go quiet. Regardless, Toro has made an impact with his new club, has begun appearing on many analysts’ waiver wire feeds, and has hit from the leadoff spot in his two most recent appearances. Let’s take a dive down the rabbit hole and see what Toro’s game is all about. 

Read the rest of this entry »


Micro Game Logging with Tarik Skubal

I’ll come right out with it: I have a WHIP roto-score of a 1. Ok? There. I said it. This makes for tense viewing experiences when I get to sit down and actually watch one of my starting pitchers. Every infield single has me yelling, “That was recorded as a hit!?” But, if I weren’t actually watching the game, I would have only seen the hits and walks and innings pitched portion of a starting pitcher’s line and just assumed they gave up too many.  Luckily, watching Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal on Wednesday assured me that he’s still a guy to roster and that he had some bad luck. This is not to say that Skubal’s game line was bad, but I’m super sensitive about my WHIP and last week’s game in Kansas City reinforced in my mind how important checking a game log can be before making drop decisions. Let’s use Skubal’s most recent outing as an example and do some micro game logging and play logging to focus on the hits allowed.

Tarik Skubal – 6/16/21: 6IP, 6H, 3ER, 2BB, 7K, W
LD%: 11.8, GB%: 41.2, FB%: 47.1

Read the rest of this entry »


Analyzing Power Drainers

In one of the most iconic and artistic pieces of American cinematography of all time, power-hungry aliens travel to Earth from Planet Moron Mountain and drain NBA basketball all-stars of their talent. While I still hold out hope that there will be a baseball version of SpaceJam within my lifetime, I can only imagine who amongst MLB’s stars would be cast. One look at statcast leaderboards could help. Here are the 10 qualified hitters so far this year who have seen the largest drain in hard-hit rate:

Read the rest of this entry »


A Closer Look: Arizona Diamondbacks

After an 85-win season and key additions on both sides (Starling Marte and Madison Bumgarner), the Diamondbacks are hoping to work their way into the playoffs. They likely be fighting for a wildcard spot thanks to the Dodgers being in their division, but there’s a lot of talent on this club and they should remain strong throughout 2020.

OTHER TEAMS:

3 QUESTIONS

What does Zac Gallen’s first full season look like?

Apparently Gallen is battling Merrill Kelly and Alex Young to secure the fifth starter’s role heading into the season despite his scintillating debut last year. In fairness, Kelly and Young were pretty solid last year so I guess they deserve a shot to compete for the spot, but everyone seems to have Gallen as the leader in the clubhouse.

Read the rest of this entry »


A Closer Look: Detroit Tigers

After checking out the high end of the AL Central last time out, we turn our attention a little lower to the rebuilding Tigers who are still expected to be in the bottom two of the division but will start showing some fruits of their laborious rebuild.

OTHER TEAMS:

3 QUESTIONS

Will Matt Manning and Casey Mize debut in 2020?

Assuming a measure of health, it looks like both young arms will make their MLB debuts in 2020. They aren’t going to break camp with the club, but they should be up in the summer sometime. Manning has usurped Mize, the former #1 overall pick, on our Tigers prospect list, though both are given 60 Future Value grades. A tremendous effort at Double-A saw Manning refine his three-pitch mix and once again shave down his walk rate, yielding a healthy 28% K rate and 7% BB rate in 133.7 innings. He’ll start the season at Triple-A and be at the ready for a call up as long as he continues to pitch like this.

Read the rest of this entry »


A Closer Look: Minnesota Twins

OK, it’s time to start getting these going as I’ve fallen behind a bit due to an unexpectedly busy offseason.

OTHER TEAMS:

3 QUESTIONS

Can Jake Odorizzi repeat his success?

Odorizzi was a standout pitcher in his second year with the Twins, posting a 3.51 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 159 innings. He even made the All-Star team. In his debut with the Twins back in 2018, he had a 4.49 ERA and the Twins likely realized one key issue with the right-hander: he couldn’t go deep into games. His OPS was .627 the first time through, .659 the second time, and then soared to 1.159 the third time.

Read the rest of this entry »


A Closer Look: Miami Marlins

A team in the throes of a rebuild isn’t expected to do much in the offseason, but the Marlins quietly put together a nice set of moves, acquiring a group of players they can either look to flip and strengthen their system or be some of the veteran pieces of their next quality team years down the road.

OTHER TEAMS:

3 QUESTIONS

Is there any hope for Lewis Brinson?

Remember when Brinson hit 5 HR in Spring Training and got a bunch of fantasy managers excited about his 2019? I guess we glossed over the 32% K rate. Or the fact that he put up OPS totals of .937, .973, and .951 in the three Spring Trainings prior to 2019. The spring surge proved to be indicative of nothing positive as he went on to be literally the worst hitter in baseball (min. 245 PA) somehow hitting 0 HR in 248 PA. He now has 709 MLB PA over which he’s been – yep, you guessed it – literally the worst hitter in baseball (min. 700 PA) thanks to an impossibly bad .183/.238/.293 line in that time.

Read the rest of this entry »


A Closer Look: Los Angeles Angels

The scorching hot stove put the ACL series on the backburner a bit, but we’re diving back in this week and starting with the Angels, who have been very busy in the month-plus since our last piece in this series.

OTHER TEAMS:

3 QUESTIONS

Can Tommy La Stella pick up where ’19 left off?

Few players personified the bouncy ball of 2019 better than La Stella. He entered his age-30 season with a career .711 OPS and 10 HR in 947 PA only to nearly double his career total in April alone when he smacked 7 HR. He stayed hot through May and June with a .324/.358/.485 line and another 9 HR before disaster struck. On July 2nd, he fouled a ball off his leg that was originally diagnosed as a contusion, but eventually turned out to be a broken leg and effectively ended his season (he returned for two games in September).

Read the rest of this entry »


A Closer Look: Cincinnati Reds

We’re headed back to the National League for the upstart Reds who have a strong rotation and some intriguing bats setting them up as a 2020 fringe contender with a few key offseason moves.

OTHER TEAMS:

3 QUESTIONS

Is Joey Votto done as a premier hitter?

After a nine-year run which saw Votto hit .315/.436/.544 with 30 HR, 95 RBI, 102 R, and 9 SB per 162 games, he fallen on hard times the last two years with just a .272/.387/.415 line and 16 HR, 65 RBI, 83 R, and 4 SB per 162. His 2018 and 2019 aren’t that far off outside of his walk rate so while a lot attention is being paid to his 2019, this is now two severely non-Vottoan years.

Read the rest of this entry »


A Closer Look: Baltimore Orioles

From the World Series runner up to second-worst record in baseball, let’s take a closer look at the rebuilding O’s.

OTHER TEAMS:

3 QUESTIONS

Will Jonathan Villar be on the team to start the season?

The concern among the fantasy community is that Villar might be traded in the offseason to a team where a) he wouldn’t have a locked in full-time gig and b) they don’t run as much, thus robbing some of his fantasy value. The 29-year old switch-hitter has enjoyed a nice rebirth with the Orioles, posting a nice 107 wRC+ over 950 PA with a very fantasy-relevant 61 SBs.

Read the rest of this entry »