For Breakouts, I think these hitters will outperform their current draft cost. With hitters, I’ve found I don’t have a knack to determine which hitters will outperform their projections besides looking at playing time. The projections catch most of the other adjustments (e.g. new home park, aging adjustments, etc…).

I divided the players up by 50 spots of ADP so fantasy managers could consider the players in their league depth. 

Changelog

• 3/7/2024: Initial list

Ranking Methodology

• ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
• $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
• ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
• 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).

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Shortstop is shaping up nicely this winter. Even cutting the guys who are added with the 5-game eligibility threshold we’re using, there are still a lot of interesting multi-eligible studs with major upside. The next wave is already making noise with some young risers carrying massive price tags despite some clear risk while a lot of the veterans come with stable floors. There is still some uncertainty at the position that I will address with updates throughout the rest of the winter.

Changelog

• 3/6/2024 – José Caballero & Gavin Lux added, multiple ranking updates
• 2/22/2024 – Xander Bogaerts, Matt McLain, Tim Anderson, Gio Urshela profile and ranking updates
• 2/15/2024 – No ranking changes, but wanted to update the ADP info
• 1/30/2024 – Vaughn Grissom boost & write-up, Corey Seager sports hernia surgery news
• 1/9/2024 – First Release

Ranking Methodology

• ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
• $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
• ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
• 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

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Second base has been one of the thinner positions in baseball over the last couple of seasons in a large part because so many of the players are eligible at other positions. However, this year isn’t as bad as it has been previously with a number of older bounce-backs and young breakouts adding to the depth of the position.

The thing to be careful to keep track of at the position are the runs and drop-offs. There are only four elite options and they are all going in the top 40 picks. The top 15 second basemen by ADP are gone by pick 160. There are some really interesting sleeper picks, especially for those in shallower formats, but for those in deeper formats it becomes very thin in the later rounds of the draft.

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I don’t consider busts to be players who have no fantasy value but guys who will disappoint compared to where they are being drafted. There is no reason to take a chance on the player with similar options at similar costs.

Usually, the market will find any flaw in a player and bury them. Because of this, it’s easier to find a reason for a player to beat his draft cost than exceed it. But just as many players will be under their projections than over them by the season’s end.

For busts, we divided the players up by 50 spots of ADP so fantasy managers could consider the players in their league depth. 

Changelog

• 2/14/2024: Initial list

Ranking Methodology

• ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
• $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
• ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
• 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).

Read the rest of this entry »