Archive for 2021

The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jerry Blevins, Former Major League Pitcher

Interview

• All-Star Game Uniforms
• Life after baseball
• Jerry Blevins Trivia
• Game planning
  • Pitching to power versus contact batters
• Thoughts on new MLB rule changes
  • 3 Batter Minimum
  • Extra Innings Rule
  • 7 Inning Doubleheaders
• Sticky Substances Ban
• Cheating in Baseball
• Injury counts on the rise
• Progression of baseball analytics throughout Jerry’s career
• Balance of scouting & analytics in baseball
• Pitching against childhood hero, Ken Griffey Jr.
• The Love of Baseball
• Philly Cheasestakes in the visiting clubhouse
• Autograph story – Jeremy Blevins

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The Fantasy All-Stars Roundtable Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guests: Paul Sporer & Justin Mason (The Sleeper & The Bust)

Injury Guru Trivia of the Week

1st Half Fantasy MVP – Hitters

• Shohei Ohtani
• Cedric Mullins
• Kyle Schwarber
• Jared Walsh

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Our MLB DFS lineups don’t start and end with pitching. I’m not saying to punt pitcher every night or even every now and then. I’m just stressing that each and every slate does not rest upon our pitching. That said, the pitcher position is so vital because it’s the slot where we can get the most accurate projection in an extremely volatile wing of DFS.

Our pitching isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

Usually, I give you the six or seven pitchers in my pool and have at it, but tonight is a bit different. There are four pitchers that are so obviously the only the most-rosterable that they’re dominating the ownership over the field.

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The Rays Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Steve Carney

Personal history in the business

Baseball in 2021

• Effect of fans
• New rules – 3 batter minimum, 7 inning doubleheaders, extra innings

Tampa Bay Rays

• Who is the Athletics MVP to date?
• Tyler Glasnow
• Closer situation
• Ji-Man Choi
• Vidal Brujan / Wander Franco – Timetables

AL East Predictions

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The Bay Area Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jessica Kleinschmidt

Personal history in the business

Oakland Athletics

• Chris Bassitt
• Who is the Athletics MVP to date?
• Ramon Laureano Injury Update
• Closer situation
  • Jake Diekman
  • Lou Trivino
• Athletics needs via trading
  • Potential trade candidates (as buyers)
• Athletics Prospects
  • Daulton Jefferies
  • Grant Holmes
  • Nick Allen
  • Logan Davidson
  • Luis Barrera
• Marcus Semien contract thoughts

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The NL Central Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Sara Sanchez

Strategy Section

• Injured List roster slots in fantasy baseball
  • Do they add or remove “luck” to the game?
  • Do they take away “decisions” that fantasy owners have to make?
  • Is 2021 different than other seasons with regard to its use?
  • The use of a Limited IL slot for high value / undropable players.

Chicago Cubs

• Closer situation
  • Will Craig Kimbrel still close if traded?
  • Who is next in line for saves?
• Anthony Rizzo & Kris Bryant
  • Contract status
  • Who is more likely to be traded?
  • Who is more likely to be a Cub in 2022?
• Javier Baez outlook rest of season
  • Who would you rather have ROS – Baez or Lindor?
• Kyle Hendricks outlook rest of season
  • HR/FB rates and when FIP differs greatly from xFIP
• Prospects that may have an impact in 2021
  • Keegan Thompson
  • Miguel Amaya
  • Brailyn Marquez
• Underperforming players worth considering in fantasy
  • Ian Happ
  • Joc Pederson
  • Matt Duffy

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Our MLB DFS lineups don’t start and end with pitching. I’m not saying to punt pitcher every night or even every now and then. I’m just stressing that each and every slate does not rest upon our pitching. That said, the pitcher position is so vital because it’s the slot where we can get the most accurate projection in an extremely volatile wing of DFS.

Our pitching isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Lineups Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Steve Gardner

Strategy Section

• Lineups
  • 5 games for a star vs. 7 games for a scrub
  • When should you start paying attention to categories when setting your lineup?
    • When should you be playing the Jon Berti types?
  • Monday morning decisions for injured players
    • What are the key words/terms that managers use that you should pay attention to when making your decisions?

Fantasy Baseball in 2021

• How does 2021’s lower batting average environment affect how you play fanasty?
• What does the 2021 pitching environment mean for player values?
• Should we change the rules of rotisserie baseball?
  • BA vs. OBP
  • Saves vs. Saves + Holds
  • Wins vs. IP vs. Wins + Quality Starts

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The Is It Too Early Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ian Kahn

Strategy Section

• Is it too early?
  • Is it too early for individual scoring categories to matter?
  • Is it too early to play the matchups based on category standings?
  • Is it too early to punt categories or to alter your pre-season strategy?
  • Is it too early to evaluate how you did at the draft table?
  • Is it too early to cut a player that you spent meaningful draft capital on?

Hot / Cold Starts

• Cold Players
  • Patrick Corbin
  • Luis Castillo
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
  • Francisco Lindor
• Hot Players
  • Cedric Mullins
  • Byron Buxton
  • Jazz Chisholm
  • Matthew Boyd
  • Danny Duffy

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Here is a disputed fact: MLB changed the ball. League brass, on the record, wanted to make the ball livelier but also raise the height of the seams, which would increase drag. The two changes — more bounce, but also more air resistance — would, more or less, offset each other.

The fact is disputed because some of the game’s most intelligent minds — namely, renowned baseball physicists, the very people most capable of determining if the ball is, indeed, different — doubt the ball has changed. It’s imperative I tell you this because they may be right, which would make me (and MLB, for the umpteenth time), well, wrong. Everything that follows assumes the ball has changed. Maybe this meshes with what you’ve witnessed, maybe it doesn’t. This is simply one stupid man’s interpretation of the data available to us thus far.

Early returns suggest MLB accomplished what it set out to accomplish. We can use weighted on-base average on contact (wOBAcon) to describe hitter production on balls in play, aka batted ball events (BBE). The average hitter is slightly less productive in 2021 than in past years, but not egregiously so, as shown below. Also, it’s only April; as the weather warms, so should be the bats. It’s reasonable to expect 2021’s league-wide wOBAcon value to climb a few ticks before year’s end.

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