I covered the first 12 rounds of my AFL draft last week and today I’ll show the rest that we did in Arizona. We will finish the remaining 27 rounds online in January.

13.193 – Scott Kingery | OF/3B, PHI

I liked the positional flexibility and power-speed capability here with Kingery. His 2018 was a flop (.605 OPS) and while he couldn’t sustain his early-2019 success (.889 1H), he still hit eight homers and stole 10 bases in the second half. I still think there’s more here, but a full season of 2019 would essentially be a 20/20 season.

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The Arizona Fall League moved up the Fall Stars game to mid-October this year which in turn moved up Baseball HQ’s First Pitch Forum conference. As you may know if you’ve been following me for a while, we conduct some early NFBC Draft and Hold leagues out there where we select our first 23 players live and then finish the remaining 27 rounds online in January. This is always fun because of how fresh we are off the regular season and it’s interesting to see how much recency bias owns the draft. Plus, there’s the bonus of being at the AFL meaning some of the prospects on the cusp get pushed up as well.

Here’s a quick rundown of my first 23 picks conducted out of the 13 spot. I’ve long aimed for a late pick in order to be early in the first round (actually the 24th) when we resume in January as news and moves often create some big-time values to be garnered that late in the draft.

1.13 – Justin Verlander | SP, HOU

I figured picking late would leave looking at a starter in the first round and I have no problem with that. There is some trepidation with taking a 37-year old pitcher for some, but I don’t share those reservations because there is literally nothing in Verlander’s profile that makes him look like a risk outside of his age.

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10/13/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host
• @pitcherlist – Co-Host
• @GoJPG – Huge thanks to producer James Gale

NEWS

• The playoff ball

2020 DISCUSSION

• Two Key Takeaways from 2019 
• Stephen Strasburg (44 Too Early ADP) v. Jack Flaherty (43)
• Frankie Montas (165) v. José Berríos (81)

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10/08/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• NYY stomps MIN
• TB forces game 4 v. HOU
• ATL/STL & WAS/LAD game 5s
• Joe Maddon likely going to LAA

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We knew coming into the season that shortstop was deep, but it even exceeded the expectations from the spring. Studs being studs, rookies coming through in a major way, development for several others, and of course the ball created an explosion at the position. Even more impressive is the fact that we have another wave of potential gems on the horizon.

Other 2020 Rankings:

• SP
• C
• 1B
• 2B

Let me know what you think in the comments.

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Yesterday I looked at the National League players who could see their 2020 draft price jump after a strong playoff run. Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers are already eliminated after losing the wildcard game in heartbreaking fashion so his draft price won’t get out of control based on just four strong innings, but he did earn some new believers last night.

Here is a candidate from each AL playoff team who could greatly improve their draft cost with a big October.

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson

Before needing surgery to remove his hamate bone following the Japan series, Olson was carrying a 106 ADP, regularly going within the top 100. Knowing he was slated to miss a month, his price tanked especially because hamate surgery has always been a major concern for a player’s power even when they return. Olson bucked that trend, smacking 36 home runs in 541 PA from May 7th on and his early ADP is actually now higher than last year’s pre-injury mark at 100th in the Too Early Mocks (TEMs). That could skyrocket with a big October and I think he could peak somewhere in the 60-70 range.

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The fantasy community gets a little bit of a breather during the playoffs. Unless you’re one of those playing a postseason contest, this is the first baseball you can just sit back and watch in quite a while. Of course, we’re always analyzing and assessing players. Every October there is a player or a few players who do so well in the playoffs that they push their draft price up for the following spring.

Walker Buehler was the standout Playoff Tax player last year and it wasn’t even all success driven. His response to a second inning blowup in Game 3 of the LDS was really impressive. He followed it up with three perfect innings, highlighting the kind of talent and mettle in the 23-year old righty. He then put up a 2.41 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 22 Ks and 1 BB in his remaining three playoff starts (18.7 IP). He was already going to be sought after in drafts, but by the end of the 2018 postseason, he ascended into the top 12-15 of starters after closing the regular season around 20th. He wasn’t the only one to go off in the playoffs and increase his draft cost, but he was the most notable.

Here is a candidate from each NL playoff team (AL tomorrow) who could greatly improve their draft cost with a big October.

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9/27/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @pitcherlist – Co-Host/Producer

STUDS SINCE AUGUST 1ST:

• Sean Manaea
• Mike Foltynewicz
• Dakota Hudson

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A September surge doesn’t guarantee success the following year. For every Luke Voit (208 wRC+ in September 2018; 128 in 2019), Ketel Marte (148; 151), Yuli Gurriel (160; 134), there’s a Ryan O’Hearn (157; 68), Kevin Kiermaier (162; 77), or Willson Contreras who actually had the worst September wRC+ (min. 70 PA) at 27 but rebounded for an excellent 2019 and career-best 129 wRC+. It doesn’t need a 100% success rate to be a worthy exercise, though.

Let’s look at a handful of September standouts (focusing primarily on guys who weren’t great through August) and see if they are worth buying into for 2020.

Eloy Jiménez, CWS | 188 wRC+ in September

Jimenez came into the season with major expectations only to labor through the first two months hitting just .220/.273/.390 with 6 HR and a high ankle sprain that shelved him for nearly a month. He soared from June 1st through the first week after the All-Star break (.921 OPS, 11 HR) and it looked like he was cool for the summer. But a bruised ulnar nerve shut him down for a minimum stay and curbed some of the momentum.

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Should you spend for an elite closer?

Earlier this year, I broke down the profitability potential of the starting pitcher tiers. We learned that it was profitable from a return on investment perspective to purchase an “ace” starting pitcher in your auctions and/or drafts. I am referring to the article entitled, “The Case for An Ace”.

Today, I dive into the hit rates and profitability for various relief pitcher tiers. Sure, there will always be hits and busts in each draft round. If you happen to strike the right player, you will be set … and vice versa if you happen to draft a dud. From a game theory perspective, knowing the more profitable price points for players at particular positions (or for particular scoring statistics) is extremely valuable to the shrewd fantasy owner.

In the long run – it is better to know that saves have a better ROI in Round X vs. Round Y, whereas steals have a better ROI in Round W vs. Round Z, etc. Why not maximize your potential sources of profit in fantasy baseball, by being efficient with your draft selections and with your auction dollars? Sure, you are free to draft Aristides Aquino in the 1^st round if you so choose – but it is prudent to keep in your back pocket what the numbers say about what the best investments are.

The Experts / Tout Wars

In my days of playing fantasy baseball, I have come across two opposing strategies regarding closers. Both approaches have been heavily publicized over the years.

• Never. Pay. For. Saves.
• Buy a top closer.

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