The hot stove season is a time of discovery. In responding to the news of trades and signings, and in doing research to prepare our annual preseason rankings, we learn things that we missed during the regular season.

After the Rays traded Tommy Pham to the Padres earlier this month, I wrote about how Pham mysteriously started hitting grounders with less authority one-third of the way into the season. (Also, thank you to commenters randplaty and zwibi, who pointed out that Pham was playing through hand and elbow injuries over several weeks late in the season.) Of 130 hitters who saw at least 1,500 pitches and hit at least 100 ground balls in both 2018 and 2019, Pham experienced the sixth-largest year-to-year decline in average exit velocity on grounders (EV GB), and that was even with his decline not beginning until two months into the season.
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It is that time of year again! With the new year upon us, I am releasing my first set of ranks during this week and next for those doing early drafts or prep over the holidays. All ADP and position eligibility are based on NFBC Draft Champions leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

It is that time of year again! With the new year upon us, I am releasing my first set of ranks during this week and next for those doing early drafts or prep over the holidays. All ADP and position eligibility are based on NFBC Draft Champions leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

Corey Kluber traded to TEX for Emmanuel Clase and Delino DeShields Jr.

It was a busy Sunday with a pair of pitchers finding new homes and sending another shockwave through this ever-moving market. Just as the morning was giving way to afternoon, the Kluber trade came through with him being sent to the Texas Rangers for Clase and DDS. To give you an idea of how obsessed I am with baseball, this was right around lineup lock for my fantasy football playoffs and let’s just say that if there had been a late scratch on my team, I’d have missed it.

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Using the current NFBC average draft data for their 50-round Draft & Hold leagues, I’m going to put together most of an offense going at 200 or later (2 catchers because I hate myself, an infield, and 2 OF). I guess it’s just a different way to identify some sleeper/later values that I like, but hey, let’s do it!

C1 – Omar Narváez, MIL | Pick 237

Among the 21 catchers with at least 650 PA the last two years, Narváez’s 120 wRC+ in 804 PA is 3rd behind only Mitch Garver (130 in 694 PA) and the guy he replaced, Yasmani Grandal (123 in 1150). He’s a brutal framer which could cut into his playing time a bit unless they have some plans to improve him, but I’d take 400 PA with 15 HR and a .277 AVG.

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12/4/19

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THE NON-TENDER TEAM

• C: Josh Phegley (3:03)
• 1B: C.J. Cron (4:55)
• 2B: César Hernández (14:55)
• 3B: Maikel Franco (23:12), Travis Shaw (31:40)
• SS: José Peraza (39:11)
• OF: Domingo Santana (45:08), Kevin Pillar (50:36), Steven Souza Jr. (59:33)
• P: Blake Treinen (1:06:22), Taijuan Walker (1:07:00)
• Ranking the Hitters (1:08:00)

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Prospect season is around the corner, and while various rankings, reports, and even trades will continue to influence the ebb and flow of prospect opinions, it’s helpful to lay the groundwork for establishing this year’s fantasy prospect values as early as possible.  The list below represents a very early look at the top 101 prospects in the game for fantasy leagues tailored specifically towards traditional rotisserie scoring (where AVG, ERA, and SB are better indicators than OPS, FIP, and wOBA.). For example, this list could be a resource for evaluating the value of prospects in Ottoneu Old School 5 x 5 leagues.  The top 101 prospects for sabermetrics leagues is here.

Years ago I introduced the Scorecard system, my custom prospect ranking process, and I’ve continued to use this method for scoring and ranking this crop of 2020 prospects.  In ranking these prospects I take into account the following factors:

Scouting

“Scouting” is everything that goes into evaluating the true talent of an MLB prospect.  Age, ability, stats, rankings, “makeup”, and scouting reports all play a role here.  It’s the input of information that causes you to ask about the player’s ceiling, their floor, and what might be realistic in between.  What are the risks, and how serious are they? Is this prospect regarded more for their defensive talents than offensive? What MLB players might they compare to? What is their future value expectation and how likely are they to reach it?

Taylor Trammell scouts like a tremendously athletic player, but scouting alone hasn’t yet materialized into an elite on-field player, so there are other elements to consider when ranking him among the other top prospects in the game in this context.

Scoring

“Scoring” is honestly assessing whether the prospect’s skills and talents effectively translate to the specific scoring format of your fantasy league.  It seems obvious, but I continually see fantasy owners fail to make this connection in the way they draft and value their prospects each season.  While Andrew Vaughn might be a top pick in sabermetic leagues, his value needs to be reassessed in the context of 5 x 5 leagues, for example.  In order to be more successful in building our dynasty rosters, we need to always project value within the context of our specific league, which is what this rating is designed to consider.

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I was originally going to cover all of these moves (sans the Miami ones because they hadn’t happened yet) yesterday when I wrote up San Diego’s busy offseason, but that might’ve been pushing 2500 words so I broke it up into two pieces. Let’s get caught up on the latest offseason deals:

Mike Moustakas to Cincinnati

While the terms of deals aren’t a major concern for us in the fantasy realm (at least until they start to play a role in dictating playing time), it feels like Moose is finally getting the money he deserved the last few years. After making $12.5 million the last two seasons for production worth at least three times that, he’ll be paid $64 million over the next four seasons to play in Cincinnati and make a more permanent move to the keystone. With Eugenio Suárez locked in at 3B, Moose will now be an everyday 2B and also cement Nick Senzel’s future in CF.

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A total of 53 players were non-tendered prior to Monday night’s deadline, and a number of fantasy-relevant players were included in that group. Domingo Santana and C.J. Cron fit that description, and if they can successfully come back from injury, so may Steven Souza Jr., Taijuan Walker and Aaron Sanchez.

What is less clear is whether Blake Treinen, José Peraza and Kevin Gausman can still be called fantasy-relevant. They certainly were as recently as 2018, but each of them fell so far in 2019 that they failed to make the top 500 in ADP in the 2 Early Mocks. Yet, upon closer examination, all three have the potential to have comeback seasons in 2020. Even though they may not get much attention in fantasy circles this offseason, I’ll make the case as to why each is deserving of a spot on your late-round flier or watch list.

Blake Treinen

In 2019, Treinen lost all of the gains he made in his strikeout and swinging strike rates in 2018, and he even lost his long-held knack for getting grounders. This combination led to the escalation of Treinen’s ERA from 0.78 to 4.91 and to him losing the Athletics’ closer role to Liam Hendriks. The loss of whiffs is likely related to a decrease in average sinker velocity from 98.0 to 96.7 mph, as well as a drop in average sinker spin rate form 2371 to 2250 rpm. He was generally locating his pitches higher (see below), which would explain his middling ground ball rate (42.8 percent) and HR/9 ratio (1.38).
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Enough news has trickled out to put together a few noteworthy news nuggets.

• In my opinion, Chris Sale is not worth his current price right now (NFBC ADP of 44). I can’t have my likely ace and third-round pick with so many questions surrounding … especially not being ready to start the season healthy.

Red Sox ace Chris Sale has been cleared to begin throwing again after a visit with Dr. James Andrews, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI Radio. The goal is for Sale to be a full go for Spring Training in a few short months. Sale’s latest visit to the physician comes as a follow-up to an August appointment in which Sale received a platelet-rich plasma injection.
…
He didn’t suffer any ligament damage, and today’s update should inspire some optimism that Sale will once again be a stalwart in the Boston rotation and return to the Cy Young form that he maintained for the better part of a decade.

Better but not great.
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