Bullpen Report: March 31, 2015
It’s still March and the season has yet to start but that doesn’t mean the closer carousel isn’t in full swing. From here on out, as teams whittle down their major league rosters and we get more information on bullpen usage, we will be updating the BR regularly.
• Red Sox closer Koji Uehara has been on the shelf with a hamstring injury lately and it acted up again in a bullpen session Monday. While Uehara’s injury isn’t major, he’s still 39 years old without a clean medical bill. Uehara won’t be out for too long but it’s important to note Uehara said “I don’t know when I’ll be back […] It’s a day-to-day process. I have to do what I have to do to get ready.” In Uehara’s place, expect Edward Mujica to take over the ninth with a little Junichi Tazawa thrown in. Mujica should now be owned in all leagues, even shallow ones. He can’t be relied upon for particularly strong ratio help or strikeouts, but saves are saves and Mujica will be tallying them in the first month of the season.
• For those of you worried about Aroldis Chapman leaving his appearance early today, he is OK and “could pitch as soon as tomorrow.” Continue to treat Aroldis Chapman as the best closer on the board. However, if you are feeling particularly sneaky, send a trade offer to his owner mentioning his injury and hope he gets worried an accepts.
• The Astros made some (small) headlines improving their bullpen this offseason bringing in Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek. Chad Qualls was solid as closer last season, but Gregerson is the better reliever to say nothing of the success that Neshek had last year as well. Until now a committee of sorts was in the works but the Astros officially named Gregerson the closer today. A.J. Hinch said “we’ll sort out the other roles as we go” but it’s safe to assume behind Gregerson will be Qualls and Neshek. This situation was a bit up in the air previously, but with Hinch anointing Gregerson as the closer, his job is actually relatively safe. A lot can change with one bad week at the start of the season, but if there is another speculative save add on the wire, a la Mujica, feel free to drop Chad Qualls for him.
• Dellin Betances averaged 96.6 mph on his fastball last season. That velocity combined with his killer breaking ball enabled him to have a fantastic season (1.64FIP; 135 strikeouts and 24 walks). Unfortunately, part of that equation has eluded him this spring as his velocity has yet to return to 2014 levels. This certainly could be a concern but Brian Cashman helped spell that issue saying (via Chad Jennings): “He’s actually averaging a mile (per hour) higher at this time this spring than last spring. If it’s apples to apples, then he’s right where he was last year. Obviously his performance in the spring is different than the arm strength, but the arm strength is not the issue. Just want to make sure everybody knows that.”
So, Betances’ velocity isn’t a concern but his performance stil is. Completely writing off Betances would of course be foolish but the Yankees have yet to name a closer, and in fact have loosely mentioned a two-headed closer in the past. If Betances is going to get consistent saves he will have to show improvement as Andrew Miller is fully capable of handling the ninth inning himself. If you draft or own Betances, Miller is a necessary handcuff considering he will surely provide positive value for team in addition to the saves insurance.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
Steve Delabar was optioned to the minors
As was Ryan Cook
Lots of updates to the grid, a few slipped the cracks. We’ll have this changed for next time.
Are you excluding Cingrani from Cincinatti’s order because you think he’s far from saves and holds or are you not considering him a reliever yet?
I’m just not sure of how he will be used yet. A long man? A set up man? A lefty?
Also for Wash isnt it Barrett & Treinen as the next two up?
According to Rotowire and FG’s own Ben Durino, Evan Marshall is the favorite for saves in AZ if Addison Reed falters. Oliver Perez is probably a close second. I know Ziegler somehow managed double-digit saves in 2013, and AZ’s front office is bonkers, but he has terrible splits against lefties.
Either or both of Scheppers and Tolleson are a pretty good bet to start the season on the dl.
Are the Dodgers really not starting the year with Jansen at the top of the pecking order?
He had surgery on his foot.
Lost Qualls so save chasing (may the “fun” begin). Looking at the Dodgers situation right now, is Peralta the add or is it just a committee?
Mattingly says committee, but I don’t fully believe him. I like Peralta best out there, but have also rostered Sergio Santos.
I think it’ll be Peralta first shot but we’ll see. Maybe Mattingly wants Peralta to stay in the 8th and let others get a shot because managers are weird sometimes.
Thanks for the analysis and the chart!
Would you consider adjusting the green-yellow-red light thing to show who is the most/least clear first man up in case of closer injury? I know these things are volatile, but, for example, Ottavino would seem to be more entrenched as the #2 option than some others.
This is always something we have to deal with. right now it’s simply just the three colors representing closeness to a change. I’ll talk it over with the guys and see if we can come up with something in addition for particular situations.
It’s used best as a companion piece while reading but we understand some use that as a snap shot and if you’re not reading all the updates you may not know the urgency difference between two reds or two yellows.
Do you think Bastardo finds himself in many HLDs situations? Love the K’s and think Pittsburg will be good for him from a coaching, park factor, and defensive stand points.
As a lefty with some good recent history, he should receive some holds but Pittsburgh has a few guys ahead of him, including lefty Tony Watson for the higher leverage innings.
Any chance Ryan Madson actually breaks camp with the Royals?
Oh man, I’m not sure I can accurately answer that question. Madson has been out of the game for so long that even if he breaks camp, we would still have to see him throw for a bit before making a real guess on if he will be an acceptable reliever. The Royals have a deep and solid bullpen that Madson being healthy and rosterable in fantasy leagues seems far fetched.
I’ve heard Greg Holland may have lost some velocity, do you have any concerns about him?
Thanks for bringing this up actually. I do have a few concerns but I’m not sounding the alarm just yet. Wade Davis, who is ownable in essentially all leagues should be a larger target now.
Is Paco Rodriguez a consideration in LA? He has 13 K’s and 0 BB’s in spring training.