Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9/17/2019

Brad Johnson: Alright, let’s kick this off.

Brad Johnson: Before we start, I encourage you to participate in The Daily Grind Invitational on FantasyDraft.

Brad Johnson: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-daily-grind-verlander-or-coors/

Brad Johnson: The link is in Section 1

Brad Johnson: I must have forgotten to click publish this morning, so the post only went out an hour ago

Brad Johnson: We were having 40% overlays without me screwing up the publishing schedule so it might push 50% today

Brad Johnson: Basically, enter for $2, expect $4 in return.

Lee: Thoughts on who’s the 1st in line for saves for Pirates – or is it a committee?

Brad Johnson: So… yea…

Brad Johnson: Focusing only on the fantasy side of things, Vazquez was roughly the second best reliever in the game so this is a big blow.

Brad Johnson: I expect Richard Rodriguez to have top shot at closing. It’ll probably go committee though. With just a couple weeks left, there’s not much incentive to name a guy before going into the winter.

Fantasy Owners Everywhere: I won my league’s regular season on the strength of Trout and Yelich; I lost in my league’s first round of the playoffs because of Trout and Yelich.  Hold me?

Brad Johnson: I lost an ottoneu H2H matchup (won regular season) by 25 points. I imagine a healthy Trout would have been +25 points over Adam Frazier…

Quadrangular: hey Brad, can we just chat about Vlad Jr. for a minute? The hype was absurd, and the projections were basically unprecedented. What happened? Why aren’t we talking more about how wrong everyone was? What do you expect for 2020?

Brad Johnson: Sure. I don’t think anybody was wrong. We got a 35th or 40th percentile outcome. The talent is beyond obvious. He’s going to go top 40 in drafts on his top 5 upside. The potential is still ludicrous.

Brad Johnson: Now, there was a lot of pressure to buy at the 75th percentile outcome (30 HR, .290 AVG, 100 RBI pace)

Brad Johnson: I also think there was a degree of infection from keeper and dynasty leagues where he still looks like a Top 1 asset candidate along with Soto and Acuna.

Brad Johnson: Personally, I probably won’t be adding shares as I prefer to speculate on upside later in drafts and take verifiable talent later

Brad Johnson: Kinda burned me this year as I picked up no new shares of Yelich or Bellinger

Dan Gleeballs: For 2020… who are you most optimistic about: Severino or Montas?

Brad Johnson: Severino

Brad Johnson: But I like Montas a lot too

Brad Johnson: Had somebody ask Montas or Bieber on my Discord this morning. That’s a very close race imo

Brad Johnson: Others felt it was easily Bieber

Kylie: Can choose one for spot start tonight – Martin Perez vs CWS or Adam Plutko vs. Det – who’d you suggest?  Looking for a decent  probability of a W without hurting the other stats too much.

Brad Johnson: I’d go Plutko personally. They’re pretty similar, but I see a little more meltdown (and upside) potential for Perez. He himself is less consistent than Plutko and the White Sox offense can be a tad feast or famine

Brad Johnson: Detroit is just famine

Dustin : Bellinger or Acuna. Who are you taking first next year

Brad Johnson: Acuna

Brad Johnson: Steals

Brad Johnson: Interestingly, I didn’t think he would steal much in the majors. Not sure how long he’ll keep it up

Ed: Am I crazy to consider keeping Muncy over JD Martinez for next year? Muncy is 3 years younger and offers great position flexibility.

Brad Johnson: Not crazy. It’s a hard decision that merits sleeping on

roster headaches: Hi Brad, in the semi’s of my 14 tm H2H league and currently have Marte and Brand Hand on my roster. Do I hold or drop in lieu of getting healthy arms/bats for this pivotal matchup? Thanks!

roster headaches: available bats include: kevin newman, Sano, omar navarez, etc.

Brad Johnson: I think you have to go as active as possible for H2H playoffs.

Brad Johnson: That said, those aren’t exactly sexy options. No down-roster Mets or Rockies?

stever20: Vlad Jr. could still hit .275 with 20+ hr and 75-80 RBI.  in 120 games.   How crazy is it that line is viewed as being a disappointment?

Brad Johnson: It’s pretty nuts.

Brad Johnson: It’s worth noting that Vladito’s skill set seemingly gets less of a boost from the juice ball.

Rick: Will Smith, Christian Vasquez, or Travis d’Arnaud for the next week?

Brad Johnson: I’m betting Smith when I have the option. I’ll take talent over reps at C

All the Marbles: Will Keston Hiura return and earn me a couple digital pennants next 1.5 weeks, or will he sit there and be a useless roster spot (daily lineups)?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think he’s going to fully return

stever20: would a good comp for Vlad Jr. for next year be Juan Soto?  Really similar stat lines for first year.

Brad Johnson: Pretty close

Brad Johnson: Let’s put a pin in it for now

Franimal Style: From Rotoworld via Twitter “Indians manager Terry Francona said Franmil Reyes could be a late scratch Tuesday night against the Tigers because he’s dealing with “personal stuff.” ” — Any idea what this is about?

Brad Johnson: No idea.

Nick: Tom Murphy (against the Pirates and Orioles) or Carson Kelly (against the Marlins and Padres) for the rest of this week?

Brad Johnson: Kelly unless you need to prioritize HR-only

Bill: How do you deal with a couple early blowups in playoffs? Just stream a ton right away to guarantee the counting stats?

Brad Johnson: Usually, yes.

Brad Johnson: In 2019, I might be a little more careful

Brad Johnson: Odds are, your opponent will have blow ups too.

Lyle: Vlad., Jr., has the same wRC+ this year as Manny Machado and Nick Markakis?  How crazy is that (on several levels)?

Brad Johnson: I think we could do Vladito facts for the rest of the hour

Kyle: Lost Giolito in H2H semis. Gonsolin have a reasonable chance to go 5 innnings tomorrow?

Mike: Just lost Giolito! Who’s worth grabbing to replace him?

Mike: Just lost Giolito! Who should I grab to replace him? 15 team mixed

Brad Johnson: Some Giolito panic…

Brad Johnson: First to Mike, you can shoot some names into the chat and I’ll see if any look rosterable.

Brad Johnson: I think the answer is to look for favorable spot starts or closers like Shaun Anderson

Brad Johnson: In a league of that depth, you’re not going to have the best options.

Brad Johnson: As for Gonsolin, I think I’d set the 50th percentile at just under 5 innings

Ed: Where are you drafting Zac Gallen next year? Can he outpitch his FIP forever?

Brad Johnson: The repertoire is pretty attractive, but that could be a very tough division to work in. I think he’ll be hyped beyond where I’m willing to take him

Brad Johnson: Let’s put it this way, the Nick Pivetta hype this spring was pretty spicy, and his platform/skills weren’t half as good as Gallen

Brad Johnson: I imagine every league will have an owner who “has to have him”

roster headaches: no rockies available that I can see.  Available Mets: Nimmo, Amahed Rosario

Brad Johnson: Those are both solid adds depending on the stats you want.

Brad Johnson: They have Coors Field and GABP this week

Kdog: Ever do dumb stuff in your playoffs like forget how many season transactions you have and then use the last one right before your finals begin?

Brad Johnson: Sure do. When your attention is as divided as mine, bonehead mistakes become par for the course

Not Brad: So do I drop Starling Marte? Or hang on and hope he plays or gets moved the IL? Times are tough in the h2h playoffs

Drop or Not Drop?: Am I allowed to drop Starling Marte if I’m roster-crunched & in the semifinals (5×5 H2H)?  I just don’t see him returning to action but he’s still 95% owned.

Brad Johnson: Yes, I think you can/should drop him.

Not Brad: It’s so exciting to be relying on guys like Mark Canha in the h2h playoffs

Brad Johnson: That’s doing playoff the right way. Even better to lean on Seth Brown hitting 4 magic HR.

Joe: Who to stream and who to bench today? Canha, Urshela, Heyward, the Gurriels, Pham, Chapman (choose 2 to bench)

Brad Johnson: Of the top of my head, probably benching 2 of Gurriel, Gurriel, or Heyward.

another bad dynasty manager: Hi Paul:  I’m in a deep pts. league with 13 kprs. After the finals are over on Sunday, the trading resumes.  I have these hitters: P. Alonso, Voit, Olson, K. Marte, Didi, C. Seager, R. Devers, J. Pederson and Laureano. A decent prospect bench with C. Kieboom, N. Pearson & Dylan Carlson. I will be needing a kpr type SP. Do I have to package a vet with a prospect to get an ace for next season?

Brad Johnson: Hi Dave: I recommend keeping Mike Trout

Trent: Would you rather take Goldschmidt in the 4th round or Votto in the 6th round next year?

Brad Johnson: I think I’d go Goldy. If it’s OBP, I might switch my answer

another bad dynasty manager: Paul: In a deep league, Montas a keeper for you? IMO, he prolly only cheated once (though nobody knows for sure).  Do you agree? Nobody in either of my leagues is interested in him. Thx for these chats all season!

Brad Johnson: (he’s trolling me, right?)

Brad Johnson:

lipton: Matt Olson capable of hitting 50 HR over a 150 games next season?

Brad Johnson: Capable, yes. Lemme boot up my HR calculator. I think I had him at 45 HR/650 PA.

Brad Johnson: 44 HR

Brad Johnson: So getting to 50 is… well it’s 6 extra well hit baseballs in 606 PA

Gus Chiggins: Right on queue, Keston Hiura back into the starting lineup batting 5th

Brad Johnson: Haha. I guess they gotta throw out all the stops

Mike: Are you as squeamish on streaming Alcantara tomorrow as Jeff is in his write up? Obviously cant count on the W but hes been awesome recently. And the Dbacks havent exactly been punishing the ball

Brad Johnson: I didn’t read Jeff’s piece, but yes, I mistrust Alcantara about as much as any other low-end pitcher. He does have more ceiling and a better median than the typical scrub-a-dub.

nahtan: what’s your take on Ramón Laureano next season? his power has taken another step forward – is top 20 OF hard to believe?

Brad Johnson: Seems like a stretch. I think he’s a streaky guy who offers a power/speed profile that’s been aided by the ball.

Brad Johnson: Because of the speed with non-lethal supporting categories (unlike, say Mallex Smith), he’s going to be drafted much higher than the value of his production

Brad Johnson: Pick Laureano early than hope to make up for it by finding late-round value.

Brad Johnson: This is if you fail to get Lindor/Acuna types

Ryan: Bigger health risk for next year: Aaron Judge or Josh Donaldson?

Brad Johnson: Donaldson by miles and miles and miles

SuperMercado: Are you believing Oscar Mercado’s hot streak for H2H? He seems to do a little of everything, which is kind of nice for a last guy.

Brad Johnson: I don’t buy streaks very often as they tend to end abruptly. But the skill set IS nice for a back-end patch

Mike: Outside of the past month, is Kershaw laughing at all the haters who predicted that he was done? Is he capable of doing something similar in 2020?

Brad Johnson: He might be if he cared at all. I don’t see any reason to bet against him next year. He was one of my favorite value targets in the ace-grouping this year. And I think he’ll basically be in the same spot (5th to 10th).

Brad Johnson: (among SP)

Lobster Man: Which HR hitting monster call up has the chance for a better career: Kyle Lewis or Aristides Aquino?

Brad Johnson: Let’s not overreact to Lewis.

Brad Johnson: I’m not convinced he’s even a fifth outfielder.

Brad Johnson: Aquino isn’t exactly guaranteed to stick around either, but I do think he’ll hit enough HR to make up for pain elsewhere.

Kdog: Whitley Merrifield NOT stealing that much this season. Still a keeper next year? I have to choose tween him and Soler. I mean…Soler right?

Brad Johnson: He also leads the league in caught stealings

Brad Johnson: He was never really an elite speed guy. I was consistently baffled whenever he broke 20 steals.

Brad Johnson: And I suspect he’s lost a step, although I haven’t looked at Statcast or anything

Brad Johnson: brief time out to measure chicken temperature

Brad Johnson: wing tips are good right out of the oven

Brad Johnson: My dinner seems to be ahead of schedule so this might not last the full hour. Sorry folks!

lipton: weekly reminder to pick up Julio Rodriguez (SEA) in your keeper league before it’s too late

Ryan: Do you think the Reds are committed enough to Aquino to make him fantasy relevant?  He might be the 4th OFer next year behind Winker, Senzel, and Ervin.

Brad Johnson: Aquino ain’t behind Ervin

Brad Johnson: Though it could get platoony

nahtan: which keeper do you prefer in ottoneu fangraphs points: $70 Trout or $35 Acuna (after salary allocation)

Brad Johnson: Acuna

Brad Johnson: But both is a better answer

Matt: In a Dynasty league (OBP) who are you more excited about as a keeper – Alfaro, or Meija? (or J McCann)

Brad Johnson: I guess Mejia

Brad Johnson: I can’t muster any excitement though

LupPup: Is Mark Canha keepable in dynasty leagues on a cheap contract? or are the odds of him getting playing time in 2020 too small?

Brad Johnson: I’d have to know more specifics

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll get 400 PA give or take

lol: Gerrit Cole – legit #1 SP pick next season?

Brad Johnson: Yes, he’s in the mix. Let’s see where he lands though.

roster headaches: Do you trust Caleb Smith enough to start him in a 14 tm league h2h playoff (6×6)? And what about taking a chance on Austin Voth in a great matchup on Friday?

Brad Johnson: It’s more about what you need to win than trust

Brad Johnson: If Smith (and Voth) have to put up for you to win the matchup, then you have to roll those dice

Brad Johnson: My guess is you have those guys rostered because your thin-staffed which tells me you ought to use ’em

Brad Johnson: But it’s entirely situational – hard for me to say what I’d do in your shoes (and even if what I’d do is the right play)

Brad Johnson: I sometimes opt for fun over smart

lol: which team is 2020’s detroit tigers – the team you always spot start against?

Brad Johnson: Well, the Marlins and Tigers don’t look like they’re going in any sort of positive direction any time soon

Mike: Do you envision the Yanks and Stros resting their position players the next week and a half?

Brad Johnson: In a sense. They’ll mostly play, but they might come out in the 6th inning or take an extra day or two on the bench

Brad Johnson: And it won’t be applied evenly

Weirdo Dude: Where are you taking Cueto next year among SPs?

Brad Johnson: Whoa.

Brad Johnson: As of today, I’m picking him off the waiver wire

Brad Johnson: Let’s let things settle before we worry about deep cut pitchers

nahan: what i’m basing the top 20 off of: Ramón Laureano has played 162 games as of yesterday and his line is: 623 PA, 27 HR, 100R, 82 RBI, 20 SB with a .288/.345/.521 line – the babip is high-ish, but he’s fast enough and isn’t exclusively a pull hitter

Brad Johnson: He’s definitely a good player

Brad Johnson: I very nearly traded Morton for him in a 20-team industry dynasty last winter (other guy balked)

Brad Johnson: I’m still mad about it

Brad Johnson: I wound up trading Morton for Eaton, Gibson, and Wendle. Then Eaton later turned into B. Dozier and C. Stewart.

Brad Johnson: So basically I got a maybe power hitter who tanked this year and a lower-mid-tier SP

roster headaches: expectations for Blake Snell tonight?

Brad Johnson: 3+ IP

LupPup: What kind of line can we expect from Keston Hiura next season? I love his game – and I want to keep him on my roster – but worried about regression given that .401 BABIP and 30.3% K rate …

Brad Johnson: That’s two-handed regression. I’m pretty sure he’s around a 22% K-rate guy.

Brad Johnson: And he punishes baseballs on a line drive plane

Kenny: Frustrating that Nate Lowe almost never seems to be in the lineup for Rays.  Why the fascination with Choi?

Brad Johnson: They think he’s better right now

Brad Johnson: I would have made the switch when Choi was out a couple months ago

Brad Johnson: But they have something telling them to stick with the vet

jon: which sox player do you prefer next season – moncada or eloy – position aside

Brad Johnson: I think I’m more comfortable with Moncada at the moment, though I see more ceiling for Eloy

Seeds: Zac Gallen feels like he could have #2 upside as early as next year based on his pitch mix and command. What say you?

Brad Johnson: He does feel that way. But that requires you to bet on a 70th percentile outcome.

Rays Rays Rays: I have 3 Rays “starters” these days, Yarbrough, Morton, and T. Richards, and like them all. But is it too dangerous to throw them against Boston (and, for Morton, NYY) if I”m in a ratio battle? Would a streamer be better for the last week? I know “safe” isn’t a word you like to use with pitchers, but I’m asking anyway. Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Streaming probably isn’t “safer” than those guys

fil j worthington: you buying low in matt carpenter next years? he’s still got 2/39 with STL or something silly

Brad Johnson: I do expect some shares to filter my way

Brad Johnson: I’m a sucker for boring vets

Brad Johnson: Had a bunch of Justin Turners this year with bland results. And Eaton everywhere.

Adam: In the brave new world of 2019, how many homers does a guy have to hit to be considered a power asset in fantasy?

Brad Johnson: Upper-20s

Weirdo Dude: Thoughts on Wilmer Flores going into 2020?  Everyday 2B now after coming back from injury and overcoming the short side of a platoon.  Could be a sneaky MI option.

Brad Johnson: I feel like we’re right back where we were last winter

Brad Johnson: I would have liked to see more juice out of him in this juicy season

Daniel: Would you be starting Carlos Correa this week at all?  I know Hinch has said about him not playing full games.

Brad Johnson: It’s classic opportunity cost. Are you playing Paul DeJong as his backup? Or Jordy Mercer?

Buzz: Jose Ramirez a first rounder for you next year?

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: And that’s not even because I’m down on him

Brad Johnson: I think I’m still basically buying close to where he was this spring

Brad Johnson: But we’ve had so many guys leapfrog him…

ERA movement: In an only league, I’m trailing the guy ahead of me in ERA by .05. Is that something 2 weeks can solve?

Brad Johnson: Yes, especially in 2019

Brad Johnson: But you need him to get unlucky with some meltdowns

Brad Johnson: I don’t recall the math offhand, but I seem to remember it’s easier for somebody to screw their own ratios than for you to catch them by improving yours

Brad Johnson: And on that note, I have to carve a bird. Adios amigos!

Brad Johnson: Good luck in your finals