The Daily Grind: Verlander or Coors

You probably can’t roster Coors Field hitters AND Justin Verlander – not without making some serious sacrifices.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Yep.

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

We had another low scoring contest with yisman the only participant to break the 140-point plateau. I usually consider that the minimum target for placing in the money. It would have been enough for second place yesterday. Friend Yis went with a very straightforward Coors stack coupled with Pablo Lopez and Robbie Ray. No need to get fancy. Kudos and Leaderboard.

You know the drill – it’s a full slate on FantasyDraft. We’re running huge overlays so take advantage.

2. Weather Reports

The wind is blowing in six mph at Wrigley Field.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

The Angels-Yankees game has one of those silly 6:35pm starts so f*** ’em.

Justin Verlander ($24,900) is the priciest prince of the pie. Double-digit strikeouts are likely, although we have to start wondering if the Astros might manage his innings a tad. He’ll host Lance Lynn ($18,400) and the Rangers. Lynn has turned pumpkin in the second half which is to say he’s pitched merely decently with occasional bright spots. I would not try him against the Astros unless you’re playing one of those massive DK GPPs and want to go contrarian.

Patrick Corbin ($21,600) is next up. He’s visiting Saint Louis. It’s a neutral matchup. For me, this is roughly par value. You can be pretty sure you’ll get 20 or more points with the downside scenarios yielding playable totals too. The upside isn’t anything like Verlander, but the Nationals do have an incentive to wring every drop out of Corbin. Miles Mikolas ($15,500) might finally be getting his act together. He’s borderline usable out of the mid-tier. Just don’t expect much profit.

Yu Darvish ($21,100) has the winds on his side. He’s pitched like an ace since mid-June. If you want Corbin’s price point with Verlander’s ceiling, this is your pick. Of course, there is a cost – a chance for a meltdown outing. The win bonus may be a challenge opposite Sonny Gray ($19,700). The Gray side of the equation is much like Corbin – high floor with some limits on the ceiling. The Cubs offense is extremely stunted these days.

On the face of it, I would like Chris Paddack ($19,700) if I thought he was likely to reach even five innings. He was rumored to be done for the season after his last start so you better believe he’s limited to something like 65 pitches or will be pulled if he runs into any sort of trouble. It’s too bad. A matchup against the Yelich-less Brewers is friendly. Brandon Woodruff ($19,500) is back to throw three or so innings. Don’t.

Dallas Keuchel ($18,000) is another, cheaper Corbin. He’s hosting the Phillies in what should be an easy win. To my eyes, they tend to struggle against ground ball pitchers.

Blake Snell ($17,800) is another big name set for a short outing. And he has a gnarly matchup opposite Ross Stripling ($13,000) and the Dodgists. Strip has been used like an opener lately.

More often than not, I try to prey upon Alex Young ($16,700). Since he’ll host the craptastic Marlins, I’m on board with him as an affordable mid-tier upside play. Caleb Smith ($16,100) is wilting to the finish line.

Adam Plutko ($15,600) is honestly a better simulacrum of Young in that he’s mid-tier-priced, upsidey, and facing a laughable opponent. I’m convinced Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull ($9,300) would have been a revelation this season if not for the juicy juice baseball. He’s offers enough strikeouts to make this low cost work.

Nathan Eovaldi ($14,700) appears to be recovering just in time to write himself into the 2020 Red Sox plans. With the Giants visiting town, this might be the week he fires off a five inning, 15 point performance. Which is hardly exciting… There is some ceiling for a big outing.

Marco Gonzales ($12,800) is very aggressively priced (i.e. low) for a visit to the Pirates. They’re prone to southpaw pitchers, and we all know PNC Park is a pitcher haven. Mitch Keller ($16,200) is overpriced for his random number generating.

Martin Perez ($11,800) and Brett Anderson ($9,900) aren’t attractive options, but they’ll probably return more than a point per $1,000.

Favorite Plays: Darvish, Gray, Keuchel, Plutko, Gonzales

Stack Targets: Vince Velasquez, Chandler Shepherd, Tim Melville, Marcus Stroman, Jorge Lopez, Wilmer Font

4. SaberSim Says…

Verlander, Darvish, Woodruff, Gray, and Corbin are the preferred arms. Mr. Sim says Woodruff will throw 5.92 innings. Nope. Verlander, Darvish, Keller, Woodruff, and Gray are the top values. Frankly, I’m shocked to see Keller here. I have over half of his outcomes in the sub-10 point bucket.

Unsurprisingly, the bates consist of Pete Alonso, Nelson Cruz, Michael Conforto, Wilson Ramos, and Mookie Betts. Guess which team is visiting Coors Field? Austin Deal, Ryan McBroom, Lewis Brinson, C.J. Cron, and Brian O’Grady comprise the bargains. For some reason, I always read it as Brady O’Grady which is a vastly superior name.

5. Yep.

Marcell Ozuna was unowned last night.

Mondesi isn’t allowed to dive, and here we see the cost.

Yep.

We hoped you liked reading The Daily Grind: Verlander or Coors by Brad Johnson!

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stever20
Member
Member
stever20

not sure how friendly Milwaukee is even w/o Yelich. In the 6 games since he’s been out, Brewers still scoring 4.5 runs per game, and they’re still in Miller Park, one of the better hitters parks out there.

Cave Dameron
Member
Cave Dameron

The Brewers have a team wRC+ of 96 and now they’re missing the best hitter in the league. I don’t think these past 6 games suddenly make them a good offensive team.

stever20
Member
Member
stever20

And it’s 102 when you take out the pitchers….

They’re even w/o Yelich still an average hitting team, and they’re playing in a good hitters park.

Cave Dameron
Member
Cave Dameron

Well the pitchers still have to hit so why are you ignoring them?

stever20
Member
Member
stever20

well right now for one, it’s maybe 1 PA per game for the pitchers, then the rest pinch hitters… September rosters…

They’re still scoring really close to the same w/o Yelich than they were with Yelich(and that goes to the games he missed earlier this year as well).

Cave Dameron
Member
Cave Dameron

What sample size is that? 20 games? I don’t know why you think these small sample sizes means their offense will continue to stay the same with Yelich out.

stever20
Member
Member
stever20

well right now I think it will because they’re playing in general bad pitching staffs… So maybe instead of scoring 8 runs, they’ll get 6 runs. Also, I think park factors into it as well.