Ottoneu Hot Right Now: Most Active Current Auctions

As always happens a few days into the season, Ottoneu managers are firing up auctions left and right, trying to grab the next big thing before it becomes too big for grabbing. Today, we’ll look at the six players who are being auctioned in the most leagues right now.

Kyle Wright – Wright impressed in his start on Saturday, going 6 IP with 6 K, 1 BB 2 H, and 0 R. He has by far the most auctions going on at the moment. Wright was an impressive prospect, performing well at every level through 2018, but never turning the pedigree into MLB success. Prior to Saturday, he had a career 6.56 ERA in 70 innings across four seasons, backed up by his FIP, xFIP, SIERA or any other stat you choose to look at. So what changed Saturday?

For one, his pitch mix.

Kyle Wright Pitch Mix
2021 2022
Four-seam 12.8% 0.0%
Sinker 37.6% 43.4%
Curve 14.3% 40.8%
Slider 27.1% 6.6%
Change 8.3% 9.2%

That’s a pretty stark change. Given how bad all his pitches performed in the past, it’s hard to say he ditched weaker pitches for stronger ones. Instead, all we can really say is that this looks, at first glance, like a deliberate change in approach. That kind of intent is both immediately measurable and a reason to believe.

His velocity was up on his sinker, curve, and slider, and down on his changeup. After allowing a 30% barrel rate last year, he gave up exactly zero (0) barrels on Saturday. The Statcast run values on all his pitches got better. Control, which was always an issue (career 14.8% walk rate and 37% zone rate), was much better (4.8% walk rate and 50% zone rate).

All in all, there are some solid reasons to believe. The biggest reason not to believe is that Wright has been so bad for so long since coming up the first time. It’s hard to write off that history. But I am comfortable bidding up to $6 on Wright, though I’ll probably stop closer to $3-$4 depending on cap situation. The pedigree suggests very real upside if these changes stick. And if they don’t, a $3 cap penalty isn’t a bad price to pay to find out. I probably won’t use him for his next start, as I am still not confident in him, but now is the time to buy.

Heliot Ramos – Ramos was once one of the most exciting young prospects in the game, but the shine has certainly worn off. His impressive performance in the low minors never really appeared in Double- or Triple-A. Until the smallest of sample sizes in Triple-A this year – a 17 PA stint that saw him strike out less, walk more and post a great overall line. Just 17 PA shouldn’t drastically change your thinking on a player, but the fact that the Giants called him up is a pretty meaningful data point, especially given their recent track record of identifying and developing talent.

In the high minors, Ramos regularly ran K-rates approaching 30% without the kind of pop needed to prop that up. However, Ramos has also been consistently young for his level (he’s still just 22), and facing older competition can suppress numbers and hide development. Development that the Giants may have seen more clearly, leading to his promotion.

Despite trusting the Giants, I am probably out on Ramos in Ottoneu. I have a few concerns. First, age or not, his lack of production in the high minors is a concern. Second, his profile is more “all around solid” than stand out. I don’t expect top end power or elite on-base skills, and that plays down a bit in Ottoneu. Lastly, the Giants heavy use of platoons and deep bench limits the upside further. Barring a star-level breakout I don’t think he has in his game, he’ll have to share time with Darin Ruf 러프, Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater, Joc Pederson, and (once healthy) LaMonte Wade Jr.

If I needed an OF, I might take a shot on Ramos at a low price, but I am not worried about missing out on him.

Steven Kwan – Like Ramos, Kwan is a rookie OF getting his first taste of the big leagues. But that is about where the similarity ends. While Ramos has disappointed as he moved up, Kwan went from off-the-radar to trendy-rookie-of-the-year pick with his Double- and Triple-A performance last year. While Ramos has some serious swing and miss in his game, Kwan has none. Literally none. Through his first 19 MLB PA, he has yet to strike out. In fact, he has yet to swing and miss. And this isn’t new – Kwan had a 2.6% swinging-strike rate in the minors last year no one else was below 5.0%. While Ramos has to contend with a crowded SF outfield, Kwan has already established himself as the Guardians starting LF and number two hitter.

Kwan, arguably, has lower upside, given the limited power potential, but I would say he just has different upside. Kwan’s Ottoneu upside looks like Brandon Nimmo or Michael Brantley – high OBP, high AVG, double digit HR (but not much more). That’s an often under-appreciated skillset in Ottoneu.

The challenge with Kwan at the moment is he is the talk of the town in baseball, and that drives up prices. As amazing as his start has been, it is still less than 20 plate appearances and he wouldn’t be the first player to explode onto the scene and then fade once pitchers figure him out. The difference for Kwan vs. many flash-in-the-pan types is that his breakout is entirely based on what he does best. He hasn’t smashed five HR in four games. He has worked counts, avoided strikeouts, put the ball in play. And there is no reason to think he won’t keep doing that.

I would be comfortable putting a $4-$5 bid on Kwan, if I needed an OF or had space for an extra bat. I don’t want to spend $10 – that is paying too close to his upside, but I would love to have him on my roster. For me, he is a clear priority over Ramos if you need OF help.

The RelieversDaniel Bard, Tony Santillan, and Jake Diekman are also in this high-auction camp. For these three, format matters a lot. If you are in a 5×5 league, closers are closers and Bard is an interesting target despite his obvious deficiencies (namely, being a Rockie). Santillan and Diekman are tougher as it is not clear that either is the closer – I would speculate on Diekman before Santillan at this point.

However, in any other format, I am more interested in Santillan and Diekman, than Bard. In points or 4×4 leagues, I am far more interested in talent and overall production, and I am not going to pay for saves. I think Santillan might have the most upside of the three, but Diekman is an excellent pitcher who can help you.

That said, I also don’t think you need to go after any of these three. Tim Mayza, Adam Ottavino, Seranthony Dominguez, and others are performing well, rostered in less than 50% of leagues, and readily available because they didn’t just dominate the middle of the Yankees lineup on Sunday night baseball. I would rather find the under the radar guy than pay for the hot name in the bullpen.

If you like Santillan and/or Diekman and want to bid $1-$2, go for it. But I would rather let someone else pay $3+ and find a cheaper option than make a $4+ bid.





A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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4onejrmember
1 year ago

Formatting is not quite right on this one… That’s one long subtext