Big Kid Adds (Week 20)

D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

George Lombard Jr. (9), Kaelen Culpepper (8), Angel Genao (7), and Hector Rodriguez (7): These four prospects were well covered coming into Sunday’s FAAB and after the fact, so I’m not going into their overall talent.

Instead, it time to dive into their small-sample result (between 17 PA and 24 PA). As for immediate red flags:

• Culpepper and Rodriguez have strikeout rates over 31%, but all four have a Contact% over 72%
• Pitchers think they have found a weakness and aren’t throwing many fastballs to Culpepper and Rodriguez (<46%).
• Rodriguez has a .059 ISO with the lowest HardHit% and 0% Barrel%.

While playing time will ultimately determine these hitters’ values, it seems like early on Lombard and Genao aren’t showing any weakness and the other two are.

Abimelec Ortiz (6): The focus on Ortiz surprised me. He’s obviously on the strong side of a first base platoon, and the team is facing just three lefties this week. I  value him as a guy who is added and dropped based on his matchups. If/when he is rostered will be based on league depth. In the 15-team NFBC Main Event (450 total players), he’s 75% rostered. In the 12-team Online Championship (360 players), it’s a 7% rostership rate.

Part of the reason he might not be rostered in the smaller leagues is that there are so many decent first base options. In one 12-team league, I got Michael Busch off the waiver wire for $2 out of a $ 1000 FAAB budget. If platoon bats Nathaniel Lowe or Spencer Horwitz are rostered in a league, so should Ortiz.

As for talent, signs point to Ortiz providing both power and possibly batting average. One of my systems points to Jonathan Aranda being a comp. And here are his Steamer600 comps.

That list is not encouraging. I have tempered expectations.

Moisés Ballesteros (6): At this point, Ballesteros should be qualified at catcher in all formats. On the season, he has a .216 AVG, 6 HR, and 1 SB in 205 PA. After a .298 AVG last season, fantasy managers expected his batting average to be positive, not a hindrance.

Pitchers have attacked him differently this season by not throwing as many fastballs to him and throwing sliders instead (9% to 22% usage, .506 vsOPS). His profile seems more typical of a catcher (low AVG, ~20 HR) than the player coming through the minors.

Since being traded to the Angels, he has started in all eight games, three at catcher. Some team should take a chance on him in all leagues.

Osleivis Basabe (5): For this season, the 25-year-old middle infielder might be the best available shortstop option on the waiver wire. He’s starting every game while batting .282/.293/.538 with 3 HR and 1 SB in 41 PA. Besides a solid batting average, he probably won’t be a positive contributor in power and speed, but he won’t be a complete zero either (projects for a full-season 10 HR/10 SB). Sadly, those numbers remind me of Adam Frazier.

Jared Young 제러드 (5): Strong-side platoon bat who is batting .262/.336/.432 with 7 HR and 3 SB. With the speed Young provides, I’d prefer him to Abimelec Ortiz.

Starters

Jackson Jobe (9): I feel Jobe was a divisive player to bid on this past weekend. For teams in need of hitting, they focused on the top bats. For those needing pitching, Jobe was the best upside dart, but Kade Anderson could still get promoted. In the NFBC Main Event, I ended up with the top bid among all leagues for him since the two teams I’m battling with also needed pitching. It might have been the wrong move, but it’s now or never.

As for Jobe, his fastball was at 98 mph, and he generated a 64% GB% … both career highs. As one of the game’s top prospects, hopefully, he’ll be a difference-maker.

Hunter Dobbins (8): Nothing exciting going on with this 4.00 ERA talent. His 1.31 WHIP (3.4 BB/9) could be a hindrance for some teams. Solid bench streamer.

Mitch Bratt (7): Some fantasy managers gambled on Bratt’s start against the Rockies and were barely helped with 2 ER, 4 K, 1 BB, and 4 H in 7 IP. When I saw he was being added, I knew it had to be matchup-based. While he’s been lucky to have a 3.74 ERA (5.05 botERA, 5.59 xFIP), his 1.40 WHIP (5.1 BB/9) is doing as much ratio damage as a 4.93 ERA.

Bratt is a one-time streamer and should head back to waivers.

Drew Anderson 앤더슨 (7): Anderson is a boringly middle-of-the-road starter. His overall numbers look better because of his time in the bullpen, but in the rotation he has a 1.20 ERA (3.97 xFIP), 1.20 WHIP (4.2 BB/9), and 9.6 K/9. And even those numbers are in short stints because he hasn’t thrown 5 IP this season, with a high of 70 pitches.

His arsenal is mainly fastball (10% SwStr%), change (18% SwStr%), curve (12% SwStr%). He has no handedness split with a 18% K-BB% against lefties and righties.

The walks and how far he throws into games can be an issue, but worth a stab considering the other waiver wire options.

Cody Bradford (6): While I had Bradford on several bid lists, I couldn’t buy into someone averaging 88.6 mph on his fastball. The NAIA fastball is showing its full glory with a 4.8 K/9 (4.8 SwStr%). The crazy thing is that his fastball is his swing-and-miss pitch (8% SwStr%), with his changeup at a 4% SwStr% and not one whiff from his slider.

I’ll value him based on his 5.09 xFIP, which means he’ll either be on my bench or the waiver wire.

Blade Tidwell (6): I have no faith in Tidwell as a starter. He can’t get lefties out (.836 vsOPS, 5% K-BB%) while handling righties (.373 vsOPS, 26% K-BB%). The numbers were worse last season.

As a starter, his team won’t get to choose the best situations for him. Instead, his opponents will get to load their lineup with lefties for max damage.

Fantasy managers might have seen that he was to face the Rockies (95 wRC+ vs RHP) on the road and rolled the dice.

Jameson Taillon (5): I didn’t understand this add at all. Again, it might have been schedule-based with two starts (Red Sox and Yankees), but Taillon has been unstartable this season (5.68 ERA, 1.37 WHIP).

Toronto has him throw harder, and he’s now on the IL with a forearm issue.

Relievers

Dylan Smith (7): Smith (3.09 ERA) got the last Save for the Giants when these adds took place. Since then, he’s blown a Save and JT Brubaker has saved a game.

Andrew Kittredge (6): He’s either the closer in Baltimore or sharing the job with Yennier Cano.