Big Kid Adds (Week 18)

Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (9): Encarnacion-Strand seemed to be taking over the third base job in Baltimore with five straight starts at third base. At that point (seven games), he posted a 1.155 OPS with 3 HR. Then he sat for the next two games with Coby Mayo starting at third base instead.

In leagues of any depth, he’s a must-roster to see where this goes, but the sample isn’t large enough to point to any breakout. The one stat I’d watch closely is his 81% Contact%, which is up from a 77% Contact% last season.

Brady House (8): With Curtis Mead being traded away, House was promoted and immediately started at third base … sort of. In four games since being promoted, he started in two of four games with Jorbit Vivas starting in the other two.

Vivas probably deserves some consideration with a .663 OPS on the season (192 PA) while House is at a .707 OPS. They might form a platoon since House struggles against righties (career .590 OPS vs RHP, .711 OPS vs LHP), while Vivas has no splits.

Projections value House as a 20 HR talent with a .245 AVG and no steals. That profile has fantasy value if playing. Since House isn’t starting every game, he is probably irrelevant except in NL-only leagues.

Esteury Ruiz (7): Before this past weekend, Ruiz was on the short side of a platoon. But then he started in three of four games and looked like he was taking over the Marlins centerfield job from Jakob Marsee (.610 OPS). All three starts came against right-handed starters. He sat against the next two righties to start the week, then started against a lefty. It’s tough to get a read on his volume.

Fantasy managers want Ruiz to be a thing with his 24 SB in 138 PA. He’s even got 5 HR to throw in this year. Prorating him to 600 PA, he’s on pace for a 20 HR/100 SB season.

Luis Rengifo (6): Rengifo doubled his OPS from .534 with the Brewers to 1.066 with the Padres. Most of the gains are from his BABIP going from .233 to .458. All his power metrics are up with career-highs in Average Exit Velocity, Hard Hit%, and Bat Speed.

While the production won’t continue, it does buy him some playing time with seven starts in the last eight games, including four in the outfield. Ride the hot hand.

Petey Halpin (5): The 24-year-old Halpin is starting (12 straight) and stealing bases (6 SB) and not much else (.200/.238/.316). One weird quirk is his strikeout rate dropping from 31% K% (73% Contact%) before the All-Star break to 5% (84% K%) after it.

Nick Fortes (5): With several catchers going to the IL, Fortes was the best available option. In 249 PA, he has 4 HR and a .280 AVG.

Paul Goldschmidt (4): Weekly projections loved Goldschmidt with four lefties on the schedule. Additionally, he’s been starting against about half the righties, with the Yankees dealing with injuries. The platoon splits are real. This season he has a 1.052 OPS against lefties and just a .602 OPS against righties.

On the season, he has been a solid source of home runs (16 HR) and not a batting average drain (.258 AVG). A solid option when playing.

Victor Caratini (4): Again, another catcher being added with the waiver wire being bare. For comparison, here are the “best” healthy catching options available in my 15-team auction league:

• Logan O’Hoppe
• Nick Fortes
• Miguel Amaya
• Carlos Narváez
• Brandon Valenzuela

It’s slim pickings.

Starting Pitchers

Ronel Blanco (8): Since coming off the IL, Blanco is trying to find a groove. So far, he has an 8.10 ERA (4.34 xFIP), 1.20 WHIP (5.4 BB/9, .105 BABIP), and 10.8 K/9.

This production is who he’s always been. A decent number of strikeouts (career 9.0 K/9) and walks (5.4 BB/9) with a high flyball rate (37% GB%) leading to home runs (1.5 HR/9). If he allows the home runs with none of the walked batters on base, all is fine. If the bases are jammed with runners, 8.10 ERA’s happen.

He hasn’t added or dropped any pitches compared to previous seasons, but he’s leaning into his changeup (24% SwStr%) more and throwing his slider (7% SwStr%) fewer times. Additionally, his fastball velocity is in the middle of previous seasons.

Overall, I think he has huge upside if he can ever get the walks under control.

Hunter Dobbins (5): I wish I had been more into Dobbins this past weekend, as he seems to be joining the Cardinals rotation. On the season, Dobbins has a 3.74 ERA (3.86 XFIP), 1.34 WHIP (2.9 BB/9, .316 BABIP), and 8.6 K/9. That’s not great, but considering the other starting pitcher waiver wire options in these deeper leagues, he stands out.

He’s throwing five pitches with usages between 35% and 8%, with his slider (35% usage, 11% SwStr%) and curve (8% usage, 21% SwStr%) being the only pitches with a swinging-strike rate over 10%.

David Peterson (5): Another example of managers adding the shiniest turd out of the lot. Peterson struggled with the Mets with a 6.09 ERA, but there was a sign of hope with a 4.08 xFIP. The Cubs must have seen the potential, traded for him, and ruined him.

Since joining the Cubs, Peterson has a 5.06 ERA (5.07 xFIP), 4.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and his groundball rate is down from 51% to 38%. He’s changed his pitch mix a bit, but hasn’t added or dropped a pitch. Overall, he’s throwing his fastballs a combined 10% points more.

He lined up for two starts this week (STL, NYY), so maybe that was behind the demand. Also, we might be at the point in the season when a few fantasy managers don’t care about ratios and are just rolling out guys in

Reliever

Hogan Harris (5): Harris is being treated as the closer in West Sacramento with the team’s last three Saves. Also, his results took off around June 1st, when he started throwing strikes. Here are the before and after numbers.

Stat: Before June 1st, After June 1st
Ball%: 42%, 34%
Zone%: 46.8%, 53.7%
K%: 24%, 39%
BB%: 17%, 7%
xFIP: 4.91, 2.45
WHIP: 1.59, 1.33

His 2.45 xFIP since June 1st is the 8th best among relievers. If he remains on the A’s, he should be pushing 100% rosters in all leagues that count Saves. Currently in the NFBC Rotowire Online Championship, he’s just 24% rostered.