All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some relief pitchers.

David Aardsma
Everyone expected Aardsma to regress this year, and his ADP reflected it. While he did do some regressing, he still has quite a bit in front of him. He gave up less fly balls this year, yet his BABIP dropped even lower. He still saved owners 31 games, but he didn’t even come close to touching last year’s value.
Crude 2011 Projection: 3.60 ERA, 5 saves, 8.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. The reduced number of saves is because I think he’ll be traded by the Mariners shortly after the offseason begins.

Matt Capps
The Nationals made a great decision this offseason, bringing Matt Capps in to be their closer. They ended up getting a solid prospect for him, and the Twins will be relying on him during this postseason. With Joe Nathan coming back, will the Twins send Capps packing, or will they keep him as insurance?
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.85 ERA, 10 saves, 7.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. While he’s a good pitcher, he’s not guarenteed to get saves next year. Play a wait and see approach with all of the Twins’ relievers.

Jonathan Broxton
Broxton was completely dominant during the first half of the year. He didn’t give up an earned run in April, and had a FIP of 0.19 during that month. 0.19! Something happened in the second half, though, and Broxton began to walk too many batters. The Dodgers lost all confidence in him, and he lost his job as the closer.
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.75 ERA, 30 saves, 11.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I don’t think he’ll slip in drafts, and he should be an elite player next season.

Daniel Bard
Bard didn’t pitch quite as well as expected, but he still did pretty well for himself. His value will all come down to Papelbon. Will he stay or will he go?
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.60 ERA, 27 saves, 9.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I think Papelbon gets traded, but the Red Sox bring in a veteran or two to keep Bard on his toes.

Drew Storen
As soon as he was drafted, Storen was labeled the Nationals “closer of the future.” The Nationals had him put his work in for the minor league affiliates, and then gave him some chances once Matt Capps was traded. With a full season in the organization under his belt, will the Nationals turn over the ball to Storen in the ninth inning?
Crude 2011 Projection: 3.33 ERA, 20 saves, 9.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. Like Bard, I think he becomes the closer but loses some opps to a veteran presence.

If you have a relief pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some starting pitchers.

James Shields
If you listen to xFIP, this was James Shields best season. If you ask ERA, or a majority of fans, this was his worst season. His strikeout rate was much better than his past two seasons, but it doesn’t look like he did anything to deserve it. He got smacked around this year, and even the great R.J. Anderson couldn’t really figure out why.
Crude 2011 Projection: 210 IP, 4.15 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. He’ll be undervalued next year, so prey on other owners and draft him a couple rounds later than he should go.

Josh Beckett
For all the crap the mass media and Red Sox fans are giving him, Beckett wasn’t all that bad this year. He ended with an xFIP of 4.01 in less than 130 innings. However, he did have the worst whiff rate of his career, and his worst season throwing first pitch strikes.
Crude 2011 Projection: 160 IP, 4.10 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. 160 innings isn’t worth the price you have to pay. Draft him, but don’t keep him.

Ricky Romero
I was giddy when Romero was pitching well early on, but he struggled in the second half. For the last three months, Romero failed to post a K/BB over 2, but kept his xFIP around 4.00. He was still a four win pitcher this year, and his 55% ground ball rate is great. Pitching in the AL East didn’t help things, either, and I’m willing to bet he wins 17 games in most divisions.
Crude 2011 Projection: 200 IP, 3.75 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. Odds are you got him off the waiver wire, and he’s worth that price.

Brett Cecil
Cecil had a nice April and May, but didn’t get much hype. The lefty doesn’t do anything special, and he’s a slight above-average pitcher. It was good to see him walk less batters, and his SwStr% was improved by a percentage points.
Crude 2011 Projection: 190 IP, 4.00 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He wasn’t worth much in drafts, so he’s a nice value to have in the back of your rotation.

If you have a starting pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some starting pitchers.

Colby Lewis
In his first year back in the bigs, Lewis performed very well. Lewis pitched more than 200 innings, striking out close to a batter an inning. Even though he doesn’t have overpowering stuff, he was able to make hitters miss on a consistent basis.
Crude 2011 Projection: 200 IP, 4.00 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s not going to be a sleeper this year, so he’s going to be a fantastic value.

Brett Anderson
Anderson doesn’t make this list because anyone is questioning his abilities, but because of the injury risk involved. He had problems with his pitching elbow multiple times this year, and pitched fewer than 115 innings because of it. His K/BB and GB% were both higher this year, so Anderson’s still got game.
Crude 2011 Projection: 150 IP, 3.20 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. Not because he’s bad, but because he should slip a couple of rounds in drafts, and you can snag him there.

Zack Greinke
Greinke’s year wasn’t 2009esque, but it was remarkably similar to 2008. He topped 200 innings for the third straight year, but his SwStr% (and thus his K/9) decreased, leaving him with less than the 200 strikeouts many were hoping for. But, he did increase his GB%, so it wasn’t all bad news.
Crude 2011 Projection: 220 IP, 3.85 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.15 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. Like Anderson, you should be able to get him a couple of rounds later in drafts. Plus, he may not get more than 10 W’s, once again, in 2011.

Ricky Nolasco
Once again, Nolasco frustrated the crap out of his owners. For the second straight year, Nolasco’s xFIP was far better then his ERA, thanks to a K/BB of 4.45. He’s homer prone, and hitters somehow have the ability to hit him around a bit. But, he’s going to do a great job giving you some strikeouts without a very high WHIP.
Crude 2011 Projection: 175 IP, 4.30 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I’d like to think he’d go a couple of rounds later, but someone will always be willing to take him a little early with the hope that he’ll finally deliver.

If you have a starting pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some outfielders.

Carlos Beltran
Coming back from offseason knee trouble, Beltran showed some promise that could leave owners hopeful heading into 2011. With an extra offseason of rest, could Beltran actually return to his old self? A move out of center field could help the former star, and who knows if the new Mets’ management will do the right thing.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 14 HR, 8 SB
Verdict: Cut. I’d rather have an outfielder without knee problems. Don’t buy into his name value.

Colby Rasmus
I was pretty high on Rasmus coming into the season, picking him up as a bench option in as many leagues as possible. If he wasn’t drafted, he was grabbed off the waiver wire early on thanks to a hot September. He slowed down, and Tony La Russa isn’t his biggest fan, but he still managed over 500 plate appearances for the second straight year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 25 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Keep. Don’t trick yourself into thinking he’s a .300/30/30 guy, though. He never will be.

Drew Stubbs
Stubbs is a classic example of what most owners view as a replacement level fantasy player. He’s always on the waiver wire, usually owned by a few different teams, because he’s such a tantalizing talent. His counting stats are great, and I think he’s going to be a 30/30 guy at some point in his career. His strikeout rate is just plain ugly, so he’ll have to put some work in if he wants to become more of a complete player.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.340, 25 HR, 35 SB
Verdict: Keep. His power and speed combo is too good to ignore.

Jacoby Ellsbury
After being viewed as a heel by most Red Sox fans, Ellsbury could very well be in a different uniform when 2011 begins. After stealing 70 bases in 2009, Ellsbury followed it up with 7 steals this season. He still has a ton of speed, and could easily swipe 50+ bases again next season.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 5 HR, 40 SB
Verdict: Cut. If you wanted Ellsbury this year, you had to take him in the second or third round. I’m not willing to pay that price again.

If you have an outfielder you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some outfielders.

Alex Rios
Rios surged early this year, and was one of the most added players. Unfortunately, but predictably, he slowed as the season wore one. A lot of this came down to a bad BABIP, as his power production was fairly consistent.
Crude 2011 Projection: .290/.340, 19 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Keep. You got him for cheap last year, and he’s still worth far more than that.

Curtis Granderson
The extraordinary season that many predicted from Granderson was anything but. He still put up solid numbers across the board, and was a four win player, but most expected better. Will his second year in the pinstripes, his age 30 season, be any better?
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.340, 27 HR, 16 SB
Verdict: Keep. His kind of all-around production is still hard to find.

Shane Victorino
A career year at age 29. Who would have guessed? However, some owners are skeptical, and afraid his batting average will never return to a level close to .300. Plus, you have to wonder if he can put up numbers close to his 2010 campaign.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.345, 15 HR, 28 SB
Verdict: Keep. You won’t be able to let him go and pay the same price for him, so he’s worth holding on to, even if he can’t repeat 2010.

Will Venable
Venable was able to be had for next to nothing this year, thanks to playing for the Padres and his low batting average. With added playing time, Venable turned in a solid fantasy performance this year. If he could cut back on the strikeouts, he could be an outstanding player.
Crude 2011 Projection: .250/.330, 15 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Keep. If you paid more than a couple of bucks for him, you can cut him. Otherwise, he’s worth a roster spot.

Carlos Quentin
You didn’t think he could ever repeat 2008, did you? However, for a power hitter, his strikeout rate is pretty darn good. All he needs to do is stop pressing and hit some more line drives, and Quentin will be golden.
Crude 2011 Projection: .255/.350, 25 HR
Verdict: Cut. If he could hit 30+ homers again, I’d be willing to swallow his poor batting average.

If you have an outfielder you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some shortstops.

Derek Jeter
The Captain was drafted pretty high this year, and his production was lacking. He’s going to be 37 next June, so this isn’t the time to own Jeter if you haven’t already.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.340, 10 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Cut. He’s still worthy of a roster spot, but not at his keeper price.

Jimmy Rollins
Rollins is another aging shortstop who has had a bad year, but he’s not as old as Jeter. Rollins will be 32 by the time the 2011 season rolls around, so he’s not at the bottom of the hill quite yet. For the first time in his career, Rollins did not step to the plate at least 625 times due to injury. However, he walked more than he struck out for the first time in his career, and was only thrown out once on the basepaths.
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.335, 12 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Cut. His value will not equal his price.

Starlin Castro
While Castro was a solid performer in real life, his fantasy value was limited by his lack of counting stats. Castro did steal ten bags, but he did that in 18 tries. Plus, his average is going to be a product of his BABIP, which sat around .350 this year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .300/.355, 5 HR, 12 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’s got the ability to rack up counting stats at some point, and he won’t hurt you in the meantime.

Alcides Escobar
Escobar came into 2010 with huge expectations, and fulfilled none of them. But, for the most part, his lack of production wasn’t his fault. The Brewers didn’t give him many chances to run, and his BABIP was absurdly low.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 5 HR, 20 SB
Verdict: Keep. If you reached for him based on upside, you should cut him. But, his market value should be fair enough.

Cliff Pennington
Pennington is a typical Billy Beane player. He keeps the strikeouts to a minimum, plays solid defense, and walks at an average rate. While I thought he’d be a valuable player in real life, I never suspected fantasy success so soon.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.350, 7 HR, 30 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’s been undervalued because of his average, which should change next season.

If you have a shortstop you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some second basemen.

Dustin Pedroia
Odds are you drafted Pedroia in the second round, or maybe the third round if you got lucky. With a serious foot injury on everyone’s mind, owners may be forgetting the fantastic season Pedroia was having before he got hurt. How will his injury affect his next season? We really can’t say for sure, so he may end up being a gamble on draft day.
Crude 2011 Projection: .300/.385, 18 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Keep. The foot may decrease his stolen bases, but he’s still a stud.

Martin Prado
If you look away from his counting stats, Prado’s numbers are almost identical to 2009. It doesn’t feel like it, but Prado is still young and just entering his peak. He’ll be playing in a good lineup next year, so he could score 100 runs again without breaking a sweat.
Crude 2011 Projection: .310/.355, 17 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Keep. He should be plenty healthy by spring, so I’m not worried about him.

Ben Zobrist
Want to know just how good Zobrist was in 2009? Even in a down year, Zobrist was a three win player this year. Impressive. Zobrist stayed on rosters this year thanks to good counting stats, and shortstop eligibility. He won’t be SS eligible next year, so what do we make of him? Can he bounce back?
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.390, 14 HR, 20 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’s an OBP stud, and that’ll help the rest of his numbers. Still a very good second baseman.

Gordon Beckham
He was a disappointment early, but a stellar July and August gave everyone hope. He caught the injury bug late this season, but he’ll be fine next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.340, 12 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Cut. He’s got upside, but you can do better for what he’ll cost you.

Rickie Weeks
Weeks finally made good on the potential everyone saw early in his career. While he still hasn’t cut back on the strikeouts, his counting stats are ridiculous, making him one of the best players at his position.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.350, 26 HR, 13 SB
Verdict: Keep. The RBI’s and Runs he provides your team are tremendous.

Eric Young (Jr.)
EYJR is one of the fastest players in major league baseball, but the Rockies don’t seem to want to give him a chance.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.330, 0 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Cut. I love me some EYJR, but the Rockies won’t let him play enough to make him worth owning.

If you have a second basemen you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some third basemen.

Adrian Beltre
When it comes to Beltre, it may all depend on where he signs this offseason. Will he stay in a venue that fits his strengths? My guess is that after playing in Safeco, he won’t play in a pitcher’s park if he can help it. Also, can he perform without his next contract on the line?
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 25 HR
Verdict: Keep. While it’s not star level production, I’ll take that from my starting third baseman.

Mark Reynolds
Believe it or not, you can swallow a .200 average if you’re getting 35 homers. But, is that worth keeping?
Crude 2011 Projection: .230/.340, 30 HR
Verdict: Keep. It’s hard to deal with him, but the power is hard to come by.

Pedro Alvarez
His rookie year has been right in line with my expectations, but a hot September has me dreaming of so much more. He’s still young, and very raw, but the potential is enormous. Can he learn to control the stick with more precision during the offseason? My gut says yes.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.345, 24 HR
Verdict: Keep. An above-average 2011 goes down smooth with a great 2012.

Ian Stewart
2009 showed us Stewart’s power potential, while 2010 showed us his improved ability to hit for a decent batting average. If he can put it all together and continue to get a majority of the playing time against righties, he’ll have value.
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.340, 20 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Keep. See a pattern yet?

Chase Headley
Headley’s move back to third base proved to be a prudent move by the Padres, as he’s been close to a 5 win player this year. His stolen base numbers have been a big surprise, but his ability on the basepaths will be a key part of his value since he doesn’t hit for much power. He should be entering his peak shortly, so there is no better time than the present for Headley to improve.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.340, 15 HR, 13 SB
Verdict: Keep. Those numbers are pretty good for a guy who’ll slip in a lot of drafts.

Aramis Ramirez
Even after a horrendous start, Aramis somehow managed to end the season with a decent fantasy line. He still has a lot of problems to work out during this offseason, but he could be a nice option next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.330, 25 HR
Verdict: Cut. He won’t be worth what you have to pay to keep him, but don’t be afraid to snatch him back up in the draft.

If you have a third basemen you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some first basemen.

Billy Butler
Butler continued to increase his walk rate while simultaneously cutting back on the K’s. The batting average is always there, but owners are still waiting for the power to come along. He’s only 24, so a power surge is still possible, but it’s probably going to take a slight adjustment in his swing, and that may not be worth the risk. Somewhere down the road, he has a 30 HR season or two in him, but how long are you willing to wait?
Crude 2011 Projection: .315/.395, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep. As long as he keeps churning out a high average, I’m willing to wait for more power.

Kendry Morales
Morales had a chance to duplicate his 2009 success until he snapped his leg like a twig. He’ll still be in his peak years when he returns, so the leg is likely the only thing to hold his value back.
Crude 2011 Projection: .285/.345, 28 HR
Verdict: Keep. If you got him in the fourth, he’s still worth it.

Matt LaPorta
It feels like I’ve been here before. You? For someone who’s supposed to be a great power hitter, LaPorta has a sub-.400 slugging percentage. The only good thing to come out of this year is his improved BB%, and a ton of MLB experience. He’s still only 25, so maybe he’s a late bloomer?
Crude 2011 Projection: .255/.320, 16 HR
Verdict: Cut. Not looking like a stud, may never even be average.

Justin Smoak
He disappointed early this season, but Smoak has been on fire since he was recalled. He’s kept the strikeouts to a reasonable level, is working walks and is still hitting for power. Sure, it’s a small sample, but I like what I’m seeing right now.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep. Too much potential to let him go.

Ike Davis
I’m not going to lie and say I saw this coming. Davis has been very good this year, and has gotten overlooked quite a bit. He has the Mets job going forward, and will be a big part in their rebuilding plan.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.365, 23 HR
Verdict: Keep. He may never be a superstar, but he’ll put up good numbers.

If you have a first basemen you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at four catchers.

Matt Wieters
Wieters is one of the most common keepers that owners are on the fence about, and that’s no surprise. Unless you expected a catcher to have a .350+ BABIP for the rest of his career, his 2010 numbers aren’t that much of a shock. Wieters improved in a lot of categories (BB%, K%, SwStr%, Contact%), but saw a drop in his line drive rate forcing his BABIP to trend lower.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.345, 14 HR
Verdict: Cut. He’ll probably fall in drafts, so you’re better off waiting for him.

Geovany Soto
This one’s pretty simple, at least in my eyes. All of Soto’s problems stem from Sweet Lou and playing time, and he’s already gone. Plus, even with reduced PT, Soto was one of the best catchers this year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.380, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep.

Ryan Doumit
A constant frustration thanks to his injury problems, Doumit may not be quite the same risk heading into next season. With the Pirates starting to give him time in the outfield, some of the injury worries should melt away. I wouldn’t expect much more than 450 plate appearances, but that’s a number you can live with.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.345, 15 HR
Verdict: Cut. If you can, forget about his 2008 season as soon as possible.

Carlos Santana
Before the horrendous collision with Ryan Kalish, Santana was an automatic keeper going into 2011. He’s shown good power, fantastic patience, and a good stroke at the plate. Heck, he even stole a few bases. Knee injuries and catchers are scary stuff, so you need to be extra cautious with this one.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.400, 12 HR
Verdict: Keep. As long as you don’t have to pay too high a price, he’s worth the risk.

Tyler Flowers
Once considered the White Sox obvious catcher of the future, his fate is not so clear now. Chicago will have a vacancy to fill, but will they hand it over to Flowers?
Crude 2011 Projection: .225/.300, 10 HR
Verdict: Cut. I don’t think he’ll ever hit for a high enough average to justify keeping him.

JP Arencibia
After his spectacular debut, JPA didn’t do much in the limited playing time the Blue Jays gave him. He can still mash, and it should be his job to lose coming into spring.
Crude 2011 Projection: .245/.295, 15 HR
Verdict: Keep. He has too much power to send him packing.

If you have a catcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.