Here are your results from last week’s round of voting. Don’t forget to submit your vote for today’s ballot (Joe Nathan), which went up earlier this morning.

Pablo Sandoval
My vote: 9
Average: 10.63
Median: 10
Std Dev: 3.73

Apparently I was off a little bit, but these results seem about right to me. However, the fairly large standard deviation worries me, as I’d like to see it drop down about a full round. But, it shows just how much argument there will be when it comes to Kung Fu Panda’s value. Valuing Sandoval as a late 10th round pick means owners are expecting something close to a .280 average with 17 homers with a little more than 70 runs scored and driven in. Those numbers are fairly reasonable for Pablo, so you aren’t going to get much of a deal if you take him in the tenth. If he could fall to me in the 12th, I’d be much more excited, but I suppose I could talk myself into a 10th round selection if I hadn’t taken a third baseman yet.

Wandy Rodriguez
My vote: 9
Average: 10.97
Median: 10.5
Std Dev: 2.71

Just like Pablo, I leaned a little too early with Wandy. I am very happy with the smaller standard deviation, though, and it makes me much more confident in your conclusions. Selecting Wandy on the 10-11 turn means that owners aren’t expecting a whole lot from him. In fact, if he can just put up the same overall numbers as last year, he’ll be worth more than that. I don’t think that means that you, the voter, are wrong. It just shows the lack of respect Wandy will receive, especially after his early season slump last year. If I can grab Wandy in the late 10th or early 11th to be my third starter, I’m very happy with that. All it would take for Wandy to be worthy of a second starter ranking would be lucking into some wins, and that’s a chance I’m willing to take.

In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, I take another suggestion from reader Dale. Someone get this man a free hat, or another gift of some kind! Results from last week’s round of voting will be up at noon (eastern) today, so don’t forget to check that out.

Joe Nathan has long been a fantasy stud, because he can give you close to 100 strikeouts a year from the relief pitcher position. Plus, he’s given you 35+ saves in every year he’s active for the Twins, and his low ERA combined with high innings count can make a huge impact on your total pitching numbers, compared to what some other closers can do for you.

If I had to complain about Nathan, I’d moan about how he doesn’t get enough ground balls, but he’s still likely to be above the 40% mark in that area, so it’s hard to get worked up about it. I’d also mention that Nathan’s velocity was slipping a bit even before his injury, but he was still able to get batters to swing and miss at a high rate. Again, nothing to really complain about.

Nathan’s case is going to be a very interesting test, because he didn’t even see the field during the 2010 campaign, and this will be the first time we’ve tried a closer. I’m expecting a fairly large deviation on this one. Will Nathan still be viewed as a top flight closer on a good team, or will owners be a little skittish? That’s for you to decide.

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Since it is turkey day, I figured I’d give thanks to things throughout the fantasy world from last season and the upcoming one. I had fun doing this last year, so I figured I’d carry on the tradition.

I’m thankful for…Brandon Morrow getting a shot in the rotation. I was always a Morrow hater when he was in Seattle (mainly because of the whole Lincecum thing), but I’ve changed my tune after seeing a full season of him in the rotation. Makes you wonder what he could have done if Bavasi hadn’t jerked him around so much. On that thought, I’m thankful Bill Bavasi is no longer the Mariners GM.

I’m thankful for…Shin-Soo Choo getting out of his military service. Losing Choo wouldn’t have been good for baseball, the Indians, or keeper league owners everywhere.

I’m thankful for…young rooks like Mike Stanton and Jason Heyward. Getting to see two youngsters take the league by storm early on is really fun to watch.

I’m thankful for…John Buck’s breakout season. Watching someone overpay for him on draft day is going to be so much cool.

I’m thankful for…Ubaldo Jimenez’s early brilliance. Ubaldo made me look like some sort of genius is more than one league last year.

I’m thankful for…Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Having those two in the same lineup for many years should be really fun, and good for baseball in Kansas City. Unfortunately, it may mean that Dayton Moore keeps his job, which is not good for baseball in Kansas City.

I’m thankful for…Joel Hanrahan’s resurgence. I always felt bad for the guy after his ERA ballooned during his last year in Washington, and it was good to see his strikeout rate rise so high in Pittsburgh.

I’m thankful for…Raul Ibanez’s regression. Now we can all stop pretending he’s some sort of stud.

I’m thankful for…Cliff Lee. Watching that man pitch feels like a privilege, and the inevitability of him in pinstripes is something I’m not prepared for. Here’s hoping Nolan Ryan and Chuck Greenberg can save the day!

I’m thankful for…no impending baseball strike. With the NFL and NBA looking at lockouts next season, fantasy football and basketball enthusiasts could be tortured. Not us fantasy baseball nerds, as we’ll enjoy a long and fruitful 2011 campaign.

All that being said, what are you thankful for?

Today in ADP Crowdsourcing, I go all Harry Potter and talk about Wandy Rodriguez.

Most owners probably don’t realize just how good Wandy Rodriguez was last season after he started slow for the Astros. If you gave up on him during his doldrums last year, I can’t blame you, because I was among the many who did (and regretted it later).

Wandy had a really hard time in May and June, as he couldn’t strike batters out at a high rate and was starting to lose a grip on his walk rate. Sure, his whiff rate was down during those two months, but not astronomically so (puns!). He bounced back in the next two months, striking out over a batter an inning in July and August, with a K/BB rate just below 5.00. August was especially impressive, as he posted an ERA of 1.34 with a 1.86 FIP to boot.

Wandy has been very consistent over the past three seasons, delivering a FIP around 3.55, a strikeout rate around 8.5 per nine, and a swinging strike rate around the 9% mark. And he’s done it all while relying on two pitches. For someone who just came into the spotlight a few years ago, Wandy will already be 32 years of age when next season comes around, but he should still be able to deliver good numbers next season.

Because Wandy’s always seemed to fly under the radar anyway, are owners going to completely overlook him after his slow start last year? It’s your call, and I appreciate the input. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring. Please note that because of the Thanksgiving holiday, ADP results will not be up until Monday.

To submit your vote, click here.

Next up in our ADP Crowdsourcing series is Pablo Sandoval, with props going out to reader Dale for the suggestion.

If I were to write a book about Pablo Sandoval right now, one of the working titles would be “A Tale of Two Seasons: How a Pudgy Third Baseman Frustrated Owners Everywhere.” After jacking 25 dingers with a .330 batting average in 2009, Kung Fu Panda managed to hit only .268 with a measly 13 homers in almost the exact same number of trips to the plate.

Looking outside of our little fantasy box, we can see Sandoval’s performance from a wOBA, and thus a WAR perspective. In 2009, Sandoval was rated at 35 runs above average. His total dipped below -3 runs in 2010. Terrific in ‘09, but somewhat terrible in ‘10. What gives?

It’s hard to truly determine his drop in power production, but we can take a little closer look at some problems that could have plagued his batting average. Was it his strikeout rate and problems making contact? Nope. How about a problem hitting line drives? A little, but not so much. Turns out, Sandoval’s problems stem from a BABIP that sat at .291 at season’s end. While Pablo went after balls out of the zone more often, I don’t think that would be the main reason for a near 60 point dip in BABIP.

This is where you come in, America. Will Sandoval’s BABIP be closer to his 2009 or 2010 numbers, or somewhere in between? Will owners expect higher production in 2011, and will they be willing to pay for it?

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

Below are the results for this week’s ADP Crowdsourcing. If you have any suggestions for next week, leave them in the comments for consideration.

Adam Jones
My vote: 10
Average: 10.05
Median: 10
Standard Dev: 2.91

The votes were pretty clear on this one, and the results didn’t really move much throughout the day. By being taken in the tenth round, it looks like we’re assuming owners are projecting him to hit another four or five homers, with the rest of his numbers staying relatively unchanged. Also, a tenth round projection means he will be around the 30th outfielder taken, making him a third outfielder on most teams or a second outfielder on clubs who focus elsewhere earlier in the draft. Makes sense to me.

Edinson Volquez
My vote: 16
Average: 14.08
Median: 15
Standard Dev: 4.46

There was quite a bit of disagreement about Volquez, and you can see that clearly from the standard deviation of the data set. In fact, as late as Wednesday evening, the average was around 13.5 while the median stayed a 15, showing the pull of some lower outliers on the data. Being picked in the 15th round, that means owners are probably hoping for an ERA around 4.50 with high strikeout numbers and normal wins and WHIP around 1.35. This may be feasible for Volquez, and his ERA could be even lower if everything clicks. At this price, Volquez is going to be worth the risk.

Once again, if you have a suggestion, leave it in the comments for consideration. Tune in next Monday and Wednesday for the next two installments.

Once a fantasy superstar, always a fantasy superstar? Not so much if you’re Edinson Volquez.

Volquez put up dominant fantasy numbers in 2008, winning 17 games with an ERA of 3.20. However, neither his FIP nor xFIP was entirely impressive, mostly because his walk rate was worrisome.

When Volquez tried to duplicate his numbers during the 2009 season, he was shut down and had to undergo Tommy John surgery after throwing less than 50 innings. In those innings, Volquez’s control got worse, as did his ground ball rate and his ability to miss bats. Calling 2009 a disaster for Volquez is putting it lightly.

After returning from injury late this season, Volquez started out very slow for the Reds. His control problems were back, and he was giving up way too many homers. But, in miraculous fashion, Volquez turned the corner big time in September, looking better than he did in 2008. His ability to miss bats was at an all-time high, and he did a great job of keeping the walks to a minimum and delivering ground balls.

Even in his best year, his WHIP was high and his K/BB rate was not spectacular. But, he was only 24 at the times, and the extra two years (even if they were shortened by injury) could have done him a world of good.

So, here’s the question I have for you: Will owners buy into his strong finish and his name value, or are they far too skeptical to assign much value to Volquez? To date, this is the toughest one to gauge, at least for me.

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

Adam Jones always seems to get a ton of love from someone on draft day, then never lives up to the hype and disappoints. However, his transition from 2008 to 2009 was impressive, so he hasn’t always let his fans down.

After a .277-19-10 season in 2009 in which his HR/FB% was ridiculously high, Jones made some adjustments to his swing and ended 2010 with a .284-19-7 line. While that’s a pretty solid line for a 24-year old, is this what his peak will be?

Jones put up impressive power numbers while in the Mariners organization, and it may finally be transferring over. However, his problems making contact will not only plague his batting average, but limit his power production as well. Some players can get away with contact problems and still hit a ton of homers, but they hit far more fly balls and are much stronger than Jones is.

I know some owners have considered Jones a 30-30 candidate in the past, based on his raw physical tools. I’ve always seen him as someone with a ceiling closer to 25-15, basing my opinion on his performance we’ve seen, more than his physical potential.

So, you tell me: are owners tired of waiting for another big step from Jones, or are they going to give him another shot? His drop in HR/FB% with steady home run production could mean better days are ahead, but will the Average Joe know that?

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

Alright, let’s take a look at your thoughts on where Brandon Morrow and Jay Bruce will be drafted this coming year.

Brandon Morrow
My Vote: 12
Average: 10.7
Median: 11
Standard Dev: 3.56

This was actually really interesting if you had the ability, as I did, to sit around and watch the average move throughout the day. For the first few hours, we were hovering around the start of the ninth round, but that moved back to around the tenth as the day wore on, and eventually reached it’s final destination in the second day.

Read the rest of this entry »

Since you guys really seemed to have liked the ADP Crowdsourcing idea, we’re going to march forward and do a couple every week. Today, I’m going to tackle Jay Bruce, and the results for both Morrow and Bruce will be up tomorrow for your viewing pleasure.

Jay Bruce has always been an interesting case, at least for me. When he showed up on the scene in 2008, he showcased great power for a 21-year old, hitting over 20 dingers in just over 400 ABs. While his strikeout rate wasn’t good at the time, it wasn’t awful for a young power hitter getting his first taste of big league action. He also showed a good line drive rate, and his walk rate wasn’t terrible, either.

In an injury shortened 2009, Bruce left many of us in awe as he hit more homers in fewer plate appearances. And while his batting average was bad, it wasn’t due as much to strikeouts, as he improved his contact skills immensely. Thanks to all of these factors, as well as his young age, he had quite a bit of hype surrounding him coming into 2010 drafts.

His 2010 was disappointing on some levels, as his home run rate actually dropped and his strikeout rate rose. Yet, he still hit 25 homers and hit .281, as well as keeping his contact rates steady. There are still a lot of good signs that he’ll have a very bright future, including the fact that he’ll still only be 24 when next season begins.

I have no clue how owners are valuing him coming into 2011, so I need your help. Have the masses grown tired of waiting for Bruce’s breakout, or are they willing to give him one more shot? Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your answer, click here.