ADP Crowdsourcing is back with a slightly different format, and now with the second half of a pair of related players. Just like earlier in the week, we are still voting on where you think the player will be drafted (just like we did before), but also where you would take him.

Before Buster Posey took the league by storm, there was Carlos Santana. Santana was called up by the Indians in mid-June and absolutely dominated. His minor league numbers were always impressive, but it’s hard to expect such an immediate impact from a catcher. Santana hit six bombs in less than 200 plate appearances, and had a walk rate around 20%! Small sample sizes be damned, I’m giddy just thinking about Santana’s debut.

Santana’s rookie season was ended by another rookie in Ryan Kalish, who slid into Santana while he was blocking the plate. Given the images of the impact, it’s a wonder Santana still has a career in front of him, but he’s supposed to be ready for baseball come spring training. Santana is nothing if not impressive, so he’ll probably be playing the National Anthem on his guitar, too.

If not for the injury, Santana may be getting all of the hype that comes with being a young catching stud. But owners are going to have to proceed cautiously, and the common man may not even be excited about Santana due to his BABIP lowered batting average.

Like Buster Posey’s crowdsourcing earlier this week, we are still voting on where you think Santana will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Should make for good times. Also, please note we are using pick, not round this time because of Santana’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

We resume our ADP Crowdsourcing series with a slightly different format, and with a pair of related players this week. This time we are voting on where you think the player will be drafted (just like before), but also where you would take him.

Two words: Buster Posey. One more word: NEXT. In case you don’t subscribe to ESPN: The Magazine and don’t know what I’m talking about, you can read Calcaterra’s small writeup on the matter, or read Buster Olney’s piece.

However crazy ESPN’s selection might be, Posey may well be the NEXT great fantasy catcher. It’s not real often that catchers get called up to the big leagues and put up impressive offensive numbers, but that’s exactly what happened in 2010. Posey hit 18 homers in about 400 at-bats to go along with a .300 batting average. Even if that line was over a full season, it would still be pretty darn impressive.

For the most part, Posey’s numbers look completely repeatable – and there is a category or two that he could improve on (mainly his walks) – but staying stagnant is not going to be enough for most fantasy owners out there. Because Posey will be 24 years old when the 2011 campaign begins, owners will probably be looking for some Giant improvements.

We are still voting on where you think Posey will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Should make for good times. Also, please note we are using pick, not round this time because of Posey’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

Here are the results from this week’s ADP Crowdsourcing, and I’m bothered by what you all had to say about Lee.

Robinson Cano
My vote: 7
Average: 7.7
Median: 7.5
Std Dev: 3.3

There isn’t much to talk about after these votes. We were all in agreement when it came to Cano, with all of us being pretty confident that he’ll go in the second half of the first round. The seventh pick is right where he deserves to go, but owners shouldn’t be blamed for getting a little bit excited and selecting him as early as fourth or fifth, because he could very well be worth it.

Cliff Lee
My vote: 40
Average: 24.8
Median: 24
Std Dev: 8.74

I’m ashamed of all of you for making me look so foolish, so I guess I need to say something about the disparity in our votes. First, in what world would owners pick Lee at the 2-3 turn? Because I’m pretty confident it’s not this one. In the small sample of mock drafts that I’ve been involved in, Lee has gone during the middle of the fourth round. Granted, these were before he chose to play in Philly, but has his value really gone up that dramatically? I seriously doubt it. He may go at the 3-4 turn, but I think you all are a good 10-12 picks off here, and even a fairly generous standard deviation doesn’t reach that mark. Like a great author once said, “I may be wrong, but I doubt it.”

This is the first time I’ve looked at the results and though y’all were just flat out wrong. What am I missing here? I desperately need voters to defend themselves in the comments, so please do so.

In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we stay with the topical trend. We are using pick number instead of round again, so please vote accordingly.

We all knew that Cliff Lee was going to make a big splash in free agency, and that he would have a large and lasting effect on the teams involved. But, we all assumed those teams were the Yankees and Rangers, not the Phillies.

One of the good things about Cliff Lee returning to Philadelphia is that we already have a sample, albeit a relatively small one, in place. During his 80 innings (okay, you caught me, 79.2 innings) in the NL, Lee struck out over a batter an inning, and posted his best swinging-strike rate since his 52 inning year in 2003. His FIP was a tremendous 2.83, and we can all remember how dominant he was in the playoffs.

Lee is already 32-years old, and will turn 33 before the 2011 season ends. However, he does not rely on velocity, and his control appears to be the sharpest it’s ever been. The defense behind him will be more than adequate, especially in the infield, and getting to face pitchers once again will benefit his numbers. With all the free agency hype, will Lee’s value be overblown? Or could Lee actually be undervalued because of his lack of strikeouts? It’s your job to decide.

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. This time around, we’re using pick number instead of round, as it works a little better for top players. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here. And while you’re at it, why not submit a fan projection for Lee by clicking here?

In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we are using pick number instead of round again, so please vote accordingly. Also in today’s edition, we use a suggestion from the audience, specifically reader “phoenix2042.”

Robinson Cano’s 2010 breakout was huge for a multitude of reasons. Some pertaining to fantasy baseball, and some that were more relevant to real life ballin’. Sometimes, when we see a player improve his power numbers, we’ll see a drop in batting average due to a changed swing and/or more strikeouts while going for the big one. This was not the case for Cano, who’s batting average dropped a single point despite a higher (yet still low) strikeout rate.

Cano’s now shown me that he can be a consistent .320 hitter if his BABIP doesn’t screw him, and entering his age-28 season, we could see even more pop from the middle infielder. He hit 29 dingers last season, so surpassing 30 would be pretty easy.

Cano has had over 600 plate appearances in each of the past four seasons, and has never made less than 500 trips to the plate in his career. He’s durable, plays a premium position for a good team, and produces at a high rate. This guys a first round pick, for sure, but how high should he really go in the first? That’s for y’all to decide.

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. This time around, we’re using pick number instead of round, as it works a little better for top players. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here. And while you’re at it, why not submit a fan projection for Cano by clicking here?

Here are your results from this week’s round of topical crowdsourcing.

Adrian Gonzalez (Red Sox / Padres)
My vote: 16 / 25
Average: 13.3 / 23.2
Median: 12 / 23
Std Dev: 5.3 / 6.6

Good news: 95% of you read the instructions and voted based on the pick, not the round. These numbers started out around the 15 and 25 marks in the beginning, and slowly crawled their way down as the hours wore on. Perhaps I was a bit bearish with my predictions, because the numbers you all came up with make sense. Essentially, Gonzalez will be taken at the turn in every draft, and I did just that in a mock draft yesterday. If I can start a team with Gonzalez as one of my two cornerstones, I’m happy.

Mark Reynolds
My vote: 10
Average: 7.8
Median: 8
Std Dev: 3

This is probably the farthest I’ve been off thus far. Reynolds is an interesting guy coming off a poor year, and I thought the 10th round was generous enough for owners hoping for a bounceback. I believed a 10th round pick was pretty safe due to his move to the AL East and some expected regression in his batting average. Apparently, I was wrong. If it’s going to cost a seventh or eighth round pick to nab Reynolds, I’m probably staying away. That risk isn’t worth it to me with so many other players left on the board, even with the weak third base class. That’s just me, and I’m wondering if any of you are willing to take that leap of faith with Reynolds?

In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we stay in the news and revisit our old voting format.

While Werth and Gonzalez were stealing headlines, Mark Reynolds was dealt to the Orioles in a deal that was a tad surprising, considering the slugger’s reputation around baseball. For some, Reynolds is, and will continue to be fantasy kryptonite due to his extreme power and ability to steal a handful of bases. While his batting average tanked, and simultaneously went in the toilet, his power remained and he blasted 32 homers in less than 600 plate appearances.

However, Reynolds is now a problem child of sorts. He seems to have gotten it in his head that striking out 40% of the time was a-okay, as long as he hit a lot of home runs. So, Reynolds hit as many fly balls as he could last year, instead of focusing on just hitting the ball hard as he’d done in years past. The result was an ugly BABIP and a batting average below the Mendoza Line. With the drop in batting average came a drop in his slugging percentage, which dipped all the way down to .433, which is 110 points lower than his 2009 campaign.

Reynolds will be playing third base for the Orioles, but could slide over to first should prospect Josh Bell show some improvements in the minors next year. Moving from Arizona and the NL West to the tough AL East isn’t going to help Reynolds stock any, but how much will owners care?

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

When I first wrote this, Gonzalez was still on the road to being a Red Sox. Then, I edited it when the deal fell through, and again when the deal ended up getting done. However, the question set I had when the deal fell through will lead to an interesting discussion, so I’ll keep it up. The first question assumes Gonzalez plays for the Red Sox (which he now does), while the second one assumes he is still on the Padres. That way we can gauge how far owners expect his stock will rise. We’re also going to use “pick” instead of “round” this time, so we’ll see how it goes. Hope it’s not to complicated.

Due to recent developments, it feels like my hand has been forced and we have to crowdsource Adrian Gonzalez. Playing for the San Diego Padres, Gonzalez has played at least 160 games in each of the past four seasons, making him one of (if not) the most consistent and low-risk picks in fantasy baseball. Read the rest of this entry »

Here are the results from this week’s groundbreaking editions of ADP Crowdsourcing, as it was our first time trying out a closer, a player who missed all of 2010, and a top-25 talent.

Joe Nathan
My vote: 8
Average: 11
Median: 11
Std Dev: 4

So, none of us really have much of an idea where Nathan will go, do we? If there’s one thing we can all agree on, it’s that Nathan would go somewhere around the seventh round if he were healthy, maybe even earlier if a closer run gets going. But, we just don’t know how he’ll respond coming back from his injury, at least not yet. If we did this with Nathan in spring training, when we have some sort of read on his status, our results would probably be very different. If he looks healthy, an 11th round selection is obviously a steal. But if he’s healthy, you aren’t going to get him in the 11th, are you? Just because of the inherent risk involved, I’m probably not going to draft Nathan this year, but if I did, it’d be in the 10-12 range.

Alex Rodriguez
My vote: 2
Average: 2.21
Median: 2
Std Dev: 1.05

Reader “Jason B” brought up a very good point in the comments on Wednesday, wondering why I didn’t group the selections for A-Rod by pick number rather than round number. I probably should have, but I did want to see how the format worked with an early round talent. I’ll probably try an early round guy soon, and will try out pick number instead of round. But, the old method held up fine, showing that A-Rod will likely go in the early second round, and he probably won’t fall further than the early third. I think he’s a great 1-2 turn candidate this year, and I’d be more than happy to take him there.

Today’s ADP Crowdsourcing comes from a suggestion by RotoGraphs’ own Mike Axisa. Snaps for Mike.

Alex Rodriguez’s 2010 had some ups, but it also had more than it’s fair share of downs. He started out his season with a very lackluster April, but bounced back and had an outstanding May, when he hit 5 homers and had a .330 batting average. Then in June, he was down again, but he did have some decent power numbers during the month.

July and August were really scary, because A-Rod had a LD% in the single digits, yet still managed to hit 10 homers in those two months. A-Rod ended the year with a bang, hitting 9 bombs in September with an average just below .300, giving some of us hope for a much better 2011.

A-Rod is 35 years old (36 towards the end of next season), and with his recent injury history, it’s not a surprise to see his production dip a bit. But, who are we to say a season with 30 HR and 125 RBI is bad? It just seems like it because of the problems A-Rod had in the middle of his season.

Believe it or not, A-Rod ended 2010 as a top-5 third baseman, and I don’t think anyone realizes it. However, he never would have done so without his outstanding September, and those numbers came right when fantasy owners needed them most. Will the average owner buy him based on his name value, last year’s overall production, or will they let him fall this year? That’s for you to decide.

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.