Crowdsourcing Results: Cano and Lee
Here are the results from this week’s ADP Crowdsourcing, and I’m bothered by what you all had to say about Lee.
Robinson Cano
My vote: 7
Average: 7.7
Median: 7.5
Std Dev: 3.3
There isn’t much to talk about after these votes. We were all in agreement when it came to Cano, with all of us being pretty confident that he’ll go in the second half of the first round. The seventh pick is right where he deserves to go, but owners shouldn’t be blamed for getting a little bit excited and selecting him as early as fourth or fifth, because he could very well be worth it.
Cliff Lee
My vote: 40
Average: 24.8
Median: 24
Std Dev: 8.74
I’m ashamed of all of you for making me look so foolish, so I guess I need to say something about the disparity in our votes. First, in what world would owners pick Lee at the 2-3 turn? Because I’m pretty confident it’s not this one. In the small sample of mock drafts that I’ve been involved in, Lee has gone during the middle of the fourth round. Granted, these were before he chose to play in Philly, but has his value really gone up that dramatically? I seriously doubt it. He may go at the 3-4 turn, but I think you all are a good 10-12 picks off here, and even a fairly generous standard deviation doesn’t reach that mark. Like a great author once said, “I may be wrong, but I doubt it.”
This is the first time I’ve looked at the results and though y’all were just flat out wrong. What am I missing here? I desperately need voters to defend themselves in the comments, so please do so.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
I had him at 30, not necessarily because I think his true value gets a boost going to Philly, but because the hype machine perceived value knocks him up a peg. Again, not where I’d take him, just where I see him going.
Also, another theory here is that the disparity between voting systems for higher ranked and lower ranked players played a role here. The early forth round is about as late as a player can go and still be considered “elite,” at least enough so that the system of voting on particular pick as opposed to round would yield more accurate/informative results. Because of this, voters may have felt compelled to push him to a slightly higher pick than they would have had we been voting on round. I suspect if we’d voted on round he’d have landed squarely in the third, and the results would have leaned more towards the later third and perhaps even pushed him to the 3-4 turn or early fourth.
Is that Std Dev abnormally large?
That’s what she said.
Not abnormally, no. It’s probably about right.
I was saying that even with an even larger deviation, my idea still wouldn’t have fallen inside it.
I see. It’s just a full deviation away from the next highest. Wasn’t sure if that might mean something. Thanks for doing these. Great idea/exercise.
In years past I’ve seen the top pitchers go as early as the mid 20’s (guys like Johan, Lincecum, Halladay in years past) as there is usually someone who feels like getting an ace early on in drafts. I feel like Lee will be drafted closer to the early-mid 30’s myself, but wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him taken as early as the poll indicated. The hype machine is powerful
I think around pick 35 is where he will fall. It seems about right because he should still go around 40, but should get a little boost because of the Philly rotation hype.
I think it will be interesting to see how all four of the pitchers are drafted next year. I half expected a slight bump in ADP with all four.
well people probably see him as putting up a good ERA in the national league, as well as getting run support for a bunch of wins with the Phillies. he was good in his time with them earlier, and he has spent most of his career in the AL, so the NL will probably be good to him. he already has an above average K rate, so facing pitchers will get him an extra K or two when he goes out there. the low walk rate means a pretty low WHIP as well.
having said that, i think a lot of this is the hype over his free agency and how much teams valued him getting into our heads. when his name isn’t flying around everywhere for the next couple of months, we will all be able to think of him in terms of ERA, WHIP, wins and an above average, though hardly elite, K rate instead of 7 years and 25million dollars.
I like taking top pitchers early, because the top guys can be so much better than the next rung down. Two years ago I ended up with Halladay, Hernandez and Lee using this strategy and dominated the league on the pitching side.
Why do the top starting pitchers typically go after the top position players?
Hitters can contribute to 5 categories, while starting pitcher contribute to 4.
Even the best pitchers can only have 80% of the value that the top hitters can.
Pretty sure that’s not it, though. Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder et al won’t be stealing many bases this year, or any year.
“Safe” hitters are more easily projectable and…well, safer. Is the more commonly accepted explanation.
Yes, but a SP contributes more towards ERA/WHIP/K/SV than a hitter does in their respective categories. In my league, an average staff has around 1800 IP, and 8500 PA’s, so a pitcher makes up about 1/9 the IP, and a hitter makes up only like 1/14 of the total PA’s
Because taking elite hitters before elite pitchers is a proven winning strategy. There’s a reason just about every fantasy expert recommends this strategy (with some taking it to the extreme where they don’t select a pitcher until Round 10 or after).
The reason this strategy works is because you can pick up pitchers off the waiver wire during the season and stream them in for starts. There are ALWAYS more pitchers on the wire that can help you than there are hitters.
You say you dominated your league in pitching. But did you win?
We were asked to vote where we thought he would be taken, not where we would take him. I would not take him in the 2nd, but I could certainly see where other people might. FWIW, I believe I voted around the 3-4 turn as my expected ADP.
“…and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues.”
I agree with Jake. Wait until you get into a draft with some Philly fans. Lee will be a top 20 pick.
I picked 40 too, Zach. He’ll go about a full round earlier than last year IMO.
Lasy year, in my leagues Lee was picked around 35-45. With all the hype I really think that he will be picked according these results, 24 is a good estimation.
May I suggest a Jeremy Hellickson and Aroldis Chapman crowdsourcing? It would be interesting.
I generally try to avoid picking ace pitchers too early. It’s not just that guys like Greinke can be up and down, it’s also that a lot of times there’s a plethora of young, overlooked studs with ADPs in the 80-120 range that go on tears each year to become top guys. Guys like Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jiminez, David Price, and Fancisco Liriano were all in that range last year. I’m thinking next year I’m going to put one top 5 pick into an ace and then just hold off to pick SP and relievers like crazy in the 80-150 range.
lets do a crowdsourcing of greinke! i think he’s gonna have a great year because a)he’s moving to the NL and facing pitchers now. b)he’s on a better team so he can get more wins than with the royals. and c)it seems like the brewers are making an all or nothing run in their last year with prince, so he should be really motivated, which he admitted that he was not last year with the sucky royals.
I think that in every draft, there are 3 or 4 pitchers that go in the first 3 rounds. Johan was a 1st rounder for a couple of years. Lincecum was a second rounder in many leagues last year. I think the difference for Lee and Halladay is that they are not going to make a run at 300 strikeouts and that is why I think they should and likely will be lower than the mid-20’s.
Asking the crowdsourcing question on Lee in the heat of the trade furor probably lowered the average a few notches as well.