ADP Crowdsourcing: Alex Rodriguez
Today’s ADP Crowdsourcing comes from a suggestion by RotoGraphs’ own Mike Axisa. Snaps for Mike.
Alex Rodriguez’s 2010 had some ups, but it also had more than it’s fair share of downs. He started out his season with a very lackluster April, but bounced back and had an outstanding May, when he hit 5 homers and had a .330 batting average. Then in June, he was down again, but he did have some decent power numbers during the month.
July and August were really scary, because A-Rod had a LD% in the single digits, yet still managed to hit 10 homers in those two months. A-Rod ended the year with a bang, hitting 9 bombs in September with an average just below .300, giving some of us hope for a much better 2011.
A-Rod is 35 years old (36 towards the end of next season), and with his recent injury history, it’s not a surprise to see his production dip a bit. But, who are we to say a season with 30 HR and 125 RBI is bad? It just seems like it because of the problems A-Rod had in the middle of his season.
Believe it or not, A-Rod ended 2010 as a top-5 third baseman, and I don’t think anyone realizes it. However, he never would have done so without his outstanding September, and those numbers came right when fantasy owners needed them most. Will the average owner buy him based on his name value, last year’s overall production, or will they let him fall this year? That’s for you to decide.
Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.
To submit your vote, click here.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Its not a surprise hew as a Top 5 third baseman given how shallow the position was. There were the other top tier guys who all did their things (Longo, Zimmerman, Wright) and a few respectable sleeper hits (Bautista, Beltre, Rolen, McGehee). Not a whole lot after that. Reynolds, Sandoval, Aramis Ramirez, and Figgins were supposed to represent the middle tier but were near complete busts, and the only prospects to come up and provide any value were Alvarez, Walker, and Chris Johnson, none of whom was without their warts, among which were the terrible teams they played for which limited their counting stat upsides. For the full season Juan Uribe and Miguel Tejada were Top 12 at third base, so its not a shock A-Rod was Top 5.
Given (I think) that he’ll go somewhere in the first 2-3 rounds, maybe the poll would have been more enlightening if it were grouped by what *pick* he will be:
Top 5
5-10
…
25-30
I don’t think there’s any chance that he lands outside the top 30, so I think those six groups of five picks will be more telling. Right now I think you’ll end up with something like a mean of 2 and a very low standard deviation which won’t be overly revealing.
Thought about it, but wanted to see how the normal format worked out with the early rounds. If it doesn’t work all that well, I’ll mix it up next time.
Had a really difficult time deciding between rounds 2 and 3…on immediate review I think I chose incorrectly.
Well for one thing you are going to have a smaller deviation for a low rounder like ARod. I personally stuggled to place him between 2nd and 3rd. I think that while he is not the absolutely dominating 3B option or SS option he was a few years ago, he is still ARod and when projecting where he will be picked in a league with 12 drafters, there is almost certianly going to be someone who is hoping for another 45 HR/ 140 RBI season. Of course 35 HR/ 125 RBI is not that bad for almost any round if he can keep the average around .300.
One place where I don’t really see as much value going forward is steals.
Also, can I suggest Johan Santana as a potential player to get crowdsourced? He’s supposed to be back in June but I’d be curious as to where people think he will go.
I’d rather wait on players who we’re waiting for this level of medical update on, probably as long as possible before heavy mock drafting starts, since the available information is bound to change anyway. Its entirely possible if we voted now his mock ADP will be completely different and he’ll need to be discounted from reviewing the croudsourcing process against early mock drafting and eventually actual draft results anyway.
If you get A-Rod after pick 24 you’re getting a steal. His ADP should be around 15-17 and he’s around #11-12 on my draft board (I over draft scarcity in 12 team formats knowing full well that the OF/1B are easy positions to patch).
arod’s good for 30 homers and over 120 rbis (lineup and batting clean up), so even if the avg is around .270 and his steals dissapear, he’s a strong plug for at least 2 categories and the average wont be so low it hurts you at all.
A-Rod is a good one. I have enjoyed the recent crowdsourcing selections.
Would like to offer up the following for consideration: Ben Zobrist
He’ll go anywhere from pick #8 to #15 at worst. Auction I wouldn’t pay more than $30 for him in an AL-only format.
Could we crowdsource Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker?
I think those guys are highly likely to be MVP candidates in 2011. HIGHLY likely.
He also is credited with only 137 games last year. Depending on format, if you are able to replace even half of those 25 games missed:
1. I admire your league for allowing roster shuffling in half-game increments.
2. Replacement-level hr/rbi/run/sb stats for 12 games only enhances your production from HIS SPOT on the roster. (Might hurt average though.)
Chipper Jones used to be undervalued after hitting his 30s with the ‘injury prone’ label. He’d still put up top-5 stats, just in 50-75% of a season. Tack on replacement stats (hardly ever taken into account) and now you have first-round-level production for a discount.
ah true, i never thought about that! i mean its intuitive, but i didnt think about that as being part of his value. i hope he stays healthy this year and can play in 150 games or so. would help his stats a lot