When I first wrote this, Gonzalez was still on the road to being a Red Sox. Then, I edited it when the deal fell through, and again when the deal ended up getting done. However, the question set I had when the deal fell through will lead to an interesting discussion, so I’ll keep it up. The first question assumes Gonzalez plays for the Red Sox (which he now does), while the second one assumes he is still on the Padres. That way we can gauge how far owners expect his stock will rise. We’re also going to use “pick” instead of “round” this time, so we’ll see how it goes. Hope it’s not to complicated.
Due to recent developments, it feels like my hand has been forced and we have to crowdsource Adrian Gonzalez. Playing for the San Diego Padres, Gonzalez has played at least 160 games in each of the past four seasons, making him one of (if not) the most consistent and low-risk picks in fantasy baseball.
I’m not going to get super detailed into his park factors here, because this is not the place for it. However, it’s pretty simple to think about it. Gonzalez slugged over .500 with at least 30 homers each of the past four seasons, and he was playing in Petco. David Ortiz slugged over .525 last year, and he was playing in Fenway. Which one do you think has more power right now? Thought so. Is it possible that Gonzalez could really slug close to .600, .650, or even .700 in Boston? There’s a chance, albeit a small one, and the move from the NL West to AL East will hurt him a bit.
So, how much help can a top-30 fantasy option really get by moving to a (far) better situation? Probably quite a bit. While this could propel him all the way to a late first round pick, I don’t think it will. But, that’s for you to decide, not me (all our votes count equally, you know).
Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. This time around, we’re using pick number instead of round, and we’ll see if this works a little better for top players. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.
To submit your vote, click here.