Last season, I introduced two independent projections to help fantasy managers evaluate players. One is based on just the hitter’s previous season production and the other is based entirely on StatCast data. It’s time to have them available for 2021 draft prep.

As I previously stated, this is the reason behind the projections:

I created the projections with inspiration from “The Model Thinker” by Scott Page.* The author states, “do not put too much faith in one model”. To further explain this stance, he states:

“The lesson should be clear: if we can construct multiple diverse, accurate models, then we can make very accurate predictions and valuations and choose good actions.
…
Keep in mind, these second and third models need not be better than the first model. They could be worse. If they are a little less accurate, but categorically (in the literal sense) different, they should be added to the mix. “

Several projection systems already exist. Other projections take many projections and combine them. The issue is that projections are exclusively based on the previous season’s results (e.g. stolen bases, home runs) while incorporating some various levels of regression, aging factors, and yearly weightings. My goal is to create projections that don’t follow this standard cookie-cutter formula. I expect the projections to not be the most accurate because “all models are wrong.” I’m wanting a unique perspective on a hitter’s talent.
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The 2021 draft season may be the most unpredictable one … ever. While several rule changes (e.g. NL DH) can cause some evaluation inconsistencies, the biggest monkey wrench to deal with will be the lack of previous season stats. Projection systems will weight the 60-game 2020 season (37% of a normal season) to historical averages but what are those who don’t use traditional projections systems? Or read or listen to people who don’t care for them in order to create a compelling narrative? It’s time to anchor some historical context around those narratives.

All analyses “should” start with at least some set of weights. For those who start with one, they’ll have an advantage. For those who guess the correct one, they’ll have a huge edge. The issue with setting weights is how to create a short season one that fills all the narratives.

First, most of the players were rushed to get game-ready and were not 100% ready when the season started. So the beginning of the season stats could be used to replicate this ramping up period, but the weather was still warm at the season’s end increasing offensive output. Maybe the entire first month should be ignored with everything in flux. Possibly the last two because that were the 2020 regular season months. played. So, I decided to look into all the possible options including a horrible first attempt.
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• One item missing from this article are hitters who played through an injury. While it needs to be updated, all the information can be located here.

• For Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, it took about two months for mechanical adjustments to take hold.

“In a shorter season, obviously everything gets magnified,” Rangel pointed out. “It’s tougher. In a regular season, we’d have about three or four months more to go, which gives you a little bit more time to kind of settle things down. It’s just hard this year, the way things are.”

Case in point: Lance Lynn.

In 2019, Lynn was 2-2 with a 6.51 ERA after five starts. By the time his recovery started to look legit, he was about to make his 11th start (Gibson, meanwhile, has 11 starts this season). If the season ended after two months and 12 starts, as it will for Gibson in 2020, Lynn’s line would have been good but not great: 7-4, 4.50 ERA, 77 strikeouts and 22 walks in 74 innings. Instead, Lynn took June through September and finished fifth in Cy Young voting.

The findings are just a data point that seems to be in line with other findings. Players need around a month or two to implement a change or get ready for the season. Just keep the idea in mind when a hitter is coming off the IL or missed part of Spring Training.
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I know information from the 2020 season will be suspect for future use and that includes closer usage patterns. Some parts are interesting. Others useless. Before going through each closer situation, I figured it would be a blood bath. After a month of constant flux, the results are better than I expected (not one established closer lost his job in September). The useable information seems to be in line with the last few seasons.

First off, the emphasis of this study is to determine how many draft-day closers make it through the season. Here is this season’s list with all previous studies found here.

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10/12/20: Note: First, thanks to everyone for the help. Second, the comments are closed so if any player needs to be added, reach me at @jeffwzimmerman on Twitter. -Jeff

With the season just over, I’d like some help collecting the hitters who played through an injury in 2020. First, I’m not looking for those who may have struggled because of COVID-19 complications (e.g. Austin Meadows, Scott Kingery, Yoan Moncada). That’s another study for a later date.

The information can help fantasy managers help point to why a hitter may have struggled when their 2021 prep begins. Also, my research has shown that these hitters see a production decline. It’s one offseason data point to get out of the way.

Please let me know if I’m missing any in the comments. All I ask is that as much information as possible be provided like the location (e.g. hip), when (e.g. summer camp), or an article link. Just a name doesn’t help. From my own notes and begging on Twitter, here are the hitters I have so far (list from 2017, 2018, 2019). Thanks.
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I’m as competitive as hell. I hate not winning. Simply…

So is almost everyone else. While many people search for an edge, they aren’t looking into harmful habits that erode that edge. All the gains an owner could get from researching the best players can be lost if he constantly overspends rostering them. Many times what a person considers to be an edge can actually be a hindrance. Here are several ideas that help me back and now that I’ve changed my stance
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To say the least, the 2020 fantasy baseball season will go down as a one-of-kind. A late start led to a 60 game sprint. Seven-inning double-headers. Weeks of rescheduled games because of COVID-19 positive tests. The National League DH. Twenty-eight-man rosters in September. Each of these on its own would fill the headlines. With the changes coming all at once, they felt overwhelming. I’m hoping to calm everyone if any and hopefully not all of the changes happen again. Here is some advice on how to handle the changes.

The help divided up into league setting and individual manager focus. While I inserted plenty of my own advice, I wanted to make sure as many people as possible contributed so Tweeted out and asked during my chat for input.
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The final week has some interesting two-start pitchers and some well-rounded hitters taking off for teams needing a boost. My one caution for owners is that even though one category (e.g. Saves) could be the easiest to gain (or lose) point in, it is possible to drop in other categories if they are ignored.

As usual, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

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