Jayson Stark asked several people in MLB about when next season will start and most think it will be delayed.

But in 2021, owners appear ready to dig in. If they can’t open ticket offices and play baseball games in front of real human beings who purchase real tickets, they’re likely to push to delay the season until they can.

“The belief is, we can’t have games without fans anymore,” said one NL club official. “And we understand that in certain parts of the country, it’s going to be impossible to have fans in April.”

So if it’s impossible to have fans in April, they’d prefer to wait until May. If it’s impossible to have fans in May, they’d prefer to wait until June. But even if they’re wrong and fans are permitted as soon as early April, their question is: How many fans?

First, don’t get too excited about any preset fantasy draft dates. There is a good chance the start of the season will be pushed back so everyone in a draft must know that possibility.

Second, players may have to go through the ramp-up and down and back up procedure again. The season could be a huge mess again with delays and an unknown start date.
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I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of a few more starters (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7).

570: Brendan McKay

McKay got hit around (.331 BABIP, 1.5 HR/9) in 2019, but his strikeout (10.3 K/9) and walk (2.9 BB/9) were fine. He never got to pitch in the majors last season and eventually needed shoulder surgery. Reports are that he’ll likely not be ready by Opening Day.

I’m just going to pass on him in all formats. There are other pitchers I’d rather gamble on than prospect coming back from shoulder surgery.
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I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams. Here is an evaluation of the six more starters (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6).

#596 Jaime Barria

Barria is a steady below-average MLB starter who should be streamed in half his starts. Here is what  is known about him.

• His 7.5 K/9 wasn’t ideal, it was at least paired with a 2.5 BB/9.
• His fastball velocity increased just a bit (91.7 mph to 92.1 mph).
• He’s flyball prone (34% GB%) so he could give up a decent number of home runs (1.6 HR/9 on his career).
• He’s got an average four-seamer (8% SwStr%) and slider (14% SwStt) and an ineffective sinker (3% SwStr%) and changeup (9% SwStr%). He needs to ditch or improve the last two (22% usage).

The same upside exists with him with just about every other pitcher. Throw harder. Improve or add a pitch. Ideal pitch mix. Until he shows an improvement, just stream him against weaker opponents.
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American League

Athletics

• A.J. Puk is expected to be part of the rotation.

A.J. Puk is progressing well from surgery. Forst counts him among the A’s starting rotation members along with Montas, Luzardo, Bassitt and Manaea.

— Martín Gallegos (@MartinJGallegos) December 9, 2020

The A’s are going to need to get their rotation 10 deep with that injury-prone group. And those replacements could get hurt and/or underperform so 10 might not be enough.
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I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams. Here is an evaluation of the six more starters (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6).

Note: I had been using the player’s ADP rank and I moved to the actual ADP for clarity.

#623 Shane McClanahan

The 23-year-old lefty is a member of the Rays organization who pitched OK through the minors until getting hit around (.450 BABIP, 1.5 HR/9) in AA (8.35 ERA). Drafting him seems like a desperate dart throw on playing time and talent. Pass.

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I started diving into the dividing out the effects of injuries limited ramp time for the short season and didn’t get far. Some league-wide rates didn’t add up. Hitters who head to the IL are outperforming the healthy population.

Note: This analysis is math-heavy. I summarized my findings and questions at the end.

To start with, here are the league-wide OPS values for all nonpitchers as I compare the first month as players might have been ramping up.
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I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams. Here is an evaluation of the six more starters (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5).
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• Pitcher Kohei Arihara (NPB) will join shortstop Ha-Seong Kim (KBO) as the top international free agents.

The news on Kim has been known for a while but the Arihara news will be interesting for any team needing pitching (i.e. all teams). The 28-year-old Arihara had his best season in 2019 with a 2.46 ERA, 0.919 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9. All the stats were a little worse in 2020. The Davenport translation on his 2020 season is a 5.09 ERA and 5.9 K/9. Not the best numbers so maybe he’ll end up as a long reliever.

• The KBO’s Sung-Bum Na (OF/DH) has been posted and MLB teams have 30 days to negotiate a signing.

Na has been an above-average hitter in KBO since his second year in the league and a star-level performer for much of that time. In 4140 career plate appearances since debuting as a 23-year-old, he’s batted .317/.384/.542 with 179 home runs, 244 doubles and 25 triples.

…

He moved to right field for the 2015 campaign, and that’s been his primary defensive home since, although he’s still logged some occasional time in center — most recently in 2019 when he started 18 games there. However, Na’s 2019 season was cut short by a severe knee injury that resulted in him being placed on a stretcher and taken off the field in an ambulance, as he told ESPN’s Marly Rivera earlier this year. He underwent surgery and spent seven months rehabbing from that procedure.

Na doesn’t seem like a priority add with the defensive limitations and he is coming off a major knee injury. Quite a few major leaguers fit the desciption as a broken down slugger.
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