| 7:31 |
: The focus of the chat will be FAAB and Waiver Wire questions. If I get through them, I’ll answer other questions.
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| 7:31 |
: Here are the winning bits from the two 15-team Tout Wars leagues from 30 minutes ago.
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| 7:32 |
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| 7:32 |
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| 7:33 |
: Hmmm…Crichton or Ginkel or someone else in AZ (Soria update?) Thx.
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| 7:33 |
: What a mess. Seems like Grinkel but I’d hedge with all three
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There are many different available player types available this week from prospects to closers to decent two-start pitchers to old boring vets. It’ll be interesting to see how the market focuses its resources to balance needs and wants. Some teams need to add a couple of closers while others are dealing with hitters who are day-to-day. Others might have several Nats on their team and could be losing one or more to the IL. It’s going to be exhausting but diligent FAAB prep this weekend.
In the following article, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial ownership) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Keep track of these banged-up guys over the next couple of days to see if replacements will need to be rostered.
#MLB injuries from opening day:
Rosenthal (OAK) – shoulder
Donaldson (MIN) – hamstring
Senzel (CIN) – shoulder
Dozier (KC) – thumb
Barnes (LAD) – hand
S Sanchez (MIA) – shoulder— Jesse Morse, MD (@DrJesseMorse) April 2, 2021
I’m going to continue my analysis of NFBC Main Event drops, but this first week will be a one-off. The NFBC ran its first FAAB bids last night but not all the leagues have drafted (I have my final one tonight), so the adds and drops not have the normal diversity and depth. Some of the information is still useful. With the limited number of teams and with the drafts so close to the season’s will dive into some of the players on the move (minimum three moves).
Note: I use the NFBC Main Event movement because it’s a decent number of identical leagues. Additionally, the owners stay engaged longer since each spent over $1700 per team.
Read the rest of this entry »
Blah, blah, some intro stuff on some guy that goes on too long. And here are the hitters who might be changing their launch angle (i.e. groundball rate).
Using Spring Training Ground Outs divided by Airball Outs (GO/AO), some possible swing plane changes might already be detectable. To find possible change, I found the hitters who had a combined 50% GB% and at least 300 PA from 2019 to 2020. Then, I removed those with fewer than 30 spring plate appearances and got the GO/AO values for the rest. Next, I converted the GO/AO to groundball rate (GB%) using the formula in this article. Finally, I just calculated the greatest differences and here are the results.
| 11:01 |
: Let’s start. I may not be up-to-date on all the news. I’ve had a lot going on in my life but will help in any way I can.
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| 11:01 |
: Tim Anderson’s last 2 years of extremely high bapip legit?
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| 11:03 |
: He’s the type of player to post them. GBs with speed, but no one has ever been at this level over a long stretch. If he keeps it up, he’ll be the first.
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| 11:03 |
: Pick two prospect stashes for this year: Spencer Howard, Edward Cabrera, Corbin Martin, Matthew Liberatore.
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| 11:03 |
: Howard and Martin
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| 11:04 |
: Do you have a favorite sleeper reliever? The best one I got in my h2h points draft was Matt Barnes, though I’m thinking I can steal someone from the waiver wire soon.
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• Every few days, I’ll keep updating these Spring Training velocity readings.
Astros
• Josh James’s (hip) recovery timeframe is between late April to late June.
Astros right-hander Josh James, who was slated to miss the start of the 2021 season after undergoing surgery to repair a labral tear in his left hip in October, had a “physical setback,” Baker said Wednesday. The manager didn’t divulge details but said James would be “fine in a few days.”
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The recovery time for James’ procedure is approximately six to eight months, the team said previously. A sixth-month recovery would take James into late April, while an eight-month recovery would stretch into late June.
I’m not even sure James is worth drafting-and-IL-stashing. I expect he’ll come back as a reliever and will be immediately dropped. I’d rather spend the draft capital on someone useable.
Read the rest of this entry »
Maximum Exit velocity is starting to get noticed more and more as the best single stat to measure a hitter’s raw power. While quite a bit has been written on it, the subject’s money quote is from Rob Arthur:
For every mile per hour above 108, a hitter is projected to gain about 6 points of OPS relative to their predicted number.
With several new Florida Spring Training ballparks getting publicly available Trackman, I sifted through all the games and found any players who set a new over 108 mph Exit Velocity high compared to the previous two seasons. Twenty-two players have seen improvement. Most of them had a limited number of plate appearances, so setting a new high should be expected. There are a few regulars who could see an improvement in 2021.
Alejandro Kirk
Combined PA: 25
2019 Max EV: NA
2020 Max EV: 107.4
Combined Max: 107.4
2021 Max EV: 110.3
Kirk has displayed power in the past and this jump is probably setting a baseline versus an actual power increase.
• Every few days, I’ve been updating these Spring Training velocity readings.
Astros
• Yordan Alvarez will have to sit for a couple of days whenever he plays in the field.
“I can’t get on board with that yet until we get clearance from the trainers,” Baker said. “It would help our team and flexibility if he could play the outfield and first base. In the past, whenever he played the outfield, we had to sit him down for a couple of days. Maybe his new knees after he got them operated on, that might permit him. As of now, we have to treat him with kid gloves and make sure he goes deep into the season.”
DH for life.
Read the rest of this entry »
During the offseason, I kept track of pitchers who saw a 2020 velocity drop or were coming back from injuries. I’ve decided to check in on them. I know some of the sources can be a little wonky (e.g. stadium guns), but it’s better than nothing. Also, the pitchers could add velocity as they continue through Spring Training even though it rarely happens. That said, any information is better than going in blind.
For the velocity readings, I used FanGraphs for the 2019 and 2020 readings and the 2021 information from my personally collected list.
Madison Bumgarner
2019: 91.4
2020: 88.4
2021: 90-91
Bumgarner seems to be caring after he blew off his pre-season throwing last year. Projections don’t like him projecting an ERA near 5.00 but if the velocity stands, he should at least be around 4.00 ERA pitcher.
