Another dive into pitchers going after pick 300 in the NFBC. Here are some arms I’ve already examined.
Starting and Relievers, Part 1 & 2($$):
Deep League Starting Pitchers
Free agents
• Masahiro Tanaka will not be coming back to the MLB to play.
Right-hander Masahiro Tanaka’s two-year contract with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles contained an opt-out clause this winter, but the team announced that Tanaka will return to the club in 2022 (hat tip to Yahoo Japan). Tanaka’s comeback season in NPB went well, as he posted a 3.01 ERA with a 20.19% strikeout rate and a 4.65% walk rate over 155 2/3 innings with the Eagles.
Astros
• Lance McCullers Jr. is still about a month away from throwing and may not be ready by the start of Spring Training.
The right-hander said that he is “about a month” away from beginning to throw, which represents a longer rest timeline than the six-to-eight weeks McCullers projected in late October.
Still, it would seem like McCullers is still tentatively on pace to proceed relatively normally during Spring Training, and then be ready for Opening Day
The focus of this article isn’t to list all the moves. Instead, I’m going to focus on the moves where I think fantasy values changed the most. Also, I dived into a few muddled situations.
There has been quite a bit of discussion on how bad the Rangers lineup was last season. They ranked 24th in hitter WAR (only team WAR projections are available), but are projected for the 12th highest total as of now.
I’m not shying away from this offense that rates to be better than the Red Sox and Braves. Since the offense will be respectable, there is no worry for Seager or Semien seeing a major drop-off (possibly some with home run regression but EVERY OTHER ANALYST has covered this angle). Read the rest of this entry »
Four more starters as I work my way through the list. Here are the ones I’ve already done.
Starting and Relievers, Part 1 & 2($$):
Deep League Starting Pitchers
Steven Matz (301 ADP)
I probably spent way too much time digging into Matz and eventually came to the conclusion that he’s a fine starter. His profile begins and ends with his pitch mix.
| Pitch | SwStr% | GB% | Pre-IL Usage | Post IL Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 7% | 45% | 47% | 56% |
| Change | 14% | 50% | 24% | 23% |
| Curve | 11% | 38% | 17% | 17% |
| Slider | 9% | 41% | 12% | 4% |
His sinker and change got a good number of swings and misses compared to similar pitches. Also, it was a good idea for him to move away from the slider and throw the curve as a third pitch after coming off the IL. The problem there was that he threw his sinker more and the strikeouts dropped.
General
• Charlie Morton talks about how rehabbing players won’t have access to team training facilities if a lockout happens.
Yeah, I don’t think many people have given much thought to how a lockout could affect things like injury rehab. Folks think mostly in terms of starting spring training and the season on time. But yeah, for guys rehabbing, it could be a pretty significant thing for them.
Yeah, because their life as a professional doesn’t stop. I mean, you go from working out at the team facility — I mean, Acuña and Soroka, those guys are working out at the stadium and rehabbing with our PTs — and then you’re on your own. Which I’m sure is probably pretty unsettling, especially if you have, like, franchise-caliber players involved.
It’s tough to know if this situation should move back any player return timelines, but it’s something to consider going forward. Read the rest of this entry »
I’m just going to keep grinding my way through the starting pitchers hoping to find a couple of gems.
For reference, here are the pitchers I’ve already profiled:
Starting and Relievers, Part 1 & 2($$):
Deep League Starting Pitchers
Trevor Bauer (308)
Even before the recent criminal charges, Bauer was a divisive player with the recent incident leaving him with no support. He’s such a hot topic, I about skipped him over. Read the rest of this entry »
With the projection analysis out of the way, it’s time to start finding some starting pitcher gems for those arms being drafted at pick 300 or later according to NFBC’s ADP.
For reference, here are the pitchers I’ve already profiled:
James Kaprielian (300 ADP):
Kaprielian didn’t start the season in the majors but was recalled in mid-May to join the A’s rotation. He was likely kept from throwing too many innings since he’s returning from Tommy John surgery, but he showed signs of life.
To start out, his velocity dropped 2 mph from 2020 but that 2020 value was from just 3.2 IP of bullpen work. In 2021, he was sitting 93 mph with a steady climb from averaging 92 mph up to 94 mph. This value is in line with his 2016 Baseball America report of “… sits in the low 90’s and topped out at 96.” Read the rest of this entry »
I’m finally done crunching numbers (part 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8) with late-season pitcher rate stats being the last to go. It’s so monotonous and painstaking, but I’ve learned a few things going through it all. The Average rises to the top … again with several other projections popping to the top.
First, here are the projections analyzed.
To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the NFBC ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected all the pitchers in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event) in ten or more leagues. Then I removed all the pitchers who never threw an inning. Read the rest of this entry »
I’m on the home stretch with most of the comparisons (part 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7) already done. Today, the counting stats for the late-season pitcher projections taking center stage. The boys over at Razzball dominated most of the results with the aggregators coming in near the top … again (might be a theme).
First, here are the projections analyzed.
To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the NFBC ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected all the pitchers in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event) in ten or more leagues. Then I removed all the pitchers who never threw an inning. Read the rest of this entry »
Free Agents
• Justin Verlander touched 95-96 mph in his latest tryout.
Free agent Justin Verlander has reached 95-96 mph in recent bullpen sessions, as Harold Reynolds said this morning on @MLBNetwork. Verlander, who turns 39 before next season, has said he wants to pitch until age 45. @MLB
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 8, 2021