Waiver Wire Report (Week 8)

No big dollar players are available this week. It’s a boring but useful bunch.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Christopher Morel: I expect Morel to garner the biggest bids this week. He’s hitting great (.313/.405/.563, 2 HR, 2 SB) and while qualified in the outfield, already has four games at second base. Additionally, he’s been batting leadoff making his only deficiency RBI.

Tyler Naquin: He’s been boringly good with a .258 AVG, 5 HR, and 3 SB. This production so far ranks 25th among all outfielders.

Josh Rojas: He’s been better than expected coming off the IL. The .321 AVG is not completely out of place considering his .326 BABIP (career .313 BABIP) and drop in strikeout rate (25% K% to 17% K%). He’s even chipped in three steals.

Oscar Gonzalez: For any team needing power (9 HR in AAA, 31 HR in 2021) and probably batting average (.265 AVG), Gonzalez is a must-add. While he doesn’t walk at all, he doesn’t have a strikeout problem. The power already looks legit with one batted ball of 113.1 mph (91st percentile). Add him this week and then figure out his talent because the demand will only go up.

Michael Harris II: The Braves just called Harris who might possibly be their best position player prospect. In AA, he was hitting .305/.372/.506 with 5 HR and 11 SB. If he can secure full-time at-bats (batting ninth in his first game), he immediately becomes mix league viable with the stolen base upside. Might not be rosterable if there isn’t playing time.

Kole Calhoun: The seven home runs are nice, but I don’t buy the .264 AVG with a career-high .314 BABIP. He does seem to be getting to a bit more power. While his 110 maxEV is in line with previous seasons, his StatCast 50% HardHit% (>95mph) and 91.2 mph avgEV are both career-highs.

Cal Mitchell: The 23-year-old left-handed batter has started three straight after hitting a balanced .306/.362/.500 with 5 HR and 6 SB in AAA. He’s not been over-matched so far (.885 OPS).

Hunter Dozier: He’s started nine straight games while hitting a respectable .265/.323/.444 with 5 HR. Also, it helps that he’s qualified at three positions (1B, 3B, and OF).

Kevin Kiermaier: Kiermaier has been able to stay on the field, so he is generating 6 HR and 3 SB with a .239 AVG. Roster until he gets hurt.

Michael Chavis: He’s started in nine of the last ten games while hitting .286/.320/.473 with 4 HR. Middle infield power source.

Tyrone Taylor: Taylor’s fantasy value has taken a jump up with everyday at-bats (six straight starts) after Hunter Renfroe went on the IL. Taylor’s production is fine (.248/.291/.431, 4 HR) but it’d be nice if he would steal more than one bag. His value will hinge upon getting consistent plate appearances.

Edwin Ríos: Talent (.279/.319/.559, 6 HR) has never held him back, it’s that he didn’t play enough. With a couple of injuries (Bellinger and Muncy), Rios has started six straight games. Like with Taylor, Rios can be a decent contributor when playing.

Pavin Smith: When healthy, he starts. He’s hitting for some power (6 HR) but that’s about it (.234/.325/.401). His batting average used to be better, but his strikeout rate has jumped to 29% K% because the league refuses to throw him fastballs (51% to 43%).

Luis Gonzalez: The 26-year-old lefty has been productive (.321/.368/.452, 2 HR, 3 SB) in 95 PA. His splits are extreme with a .922 OPS versus righties and a .411 OPS against lefties so the Giants only use him against righties. He is scheduled to face six righties next week.

David Peralta: He’s hitting for power (8 HR) but nothing else (.226/.316/.453) while sitting against lefties. He is scheduled to only face righties next week.

Emmanuel Rivera: He’s started in nine of the last ten games while hitting .242/.309/.500 with 3 HR. A third base emergency fill-in.

Brendan Donovan: He’s been good (.310/.444/.466, 1 HR, 1 SB, 72 PA) but has bounced around the field and to the bench. He was starting in right field, but the Cardinals used Lars Nootbaar (.332 OPS) instead on Friday. Donovan will need all the starts to be fantasy relevant.

Jonathan Villar. Villar’s value has jumped around. In April he was hitting .283/.322/.321 with 0 HR and 0 SB. In May, he’s hitting .200/.238/.350 with 2 HR and 3 SB. His playing time might be in jeopardy again (see early May) with the Cubs wanting Nico Hoerner starting at shortstop.

Darin Ruf 러프: With Brandon Belt on the IL, Ruf (.232/.364/.331, 3 HR, 2 SB) has been starting every game. When Belt is healthy, Ruf starts against all lefties and a few righties. Ruf is a streaming option when playing all the time or with a bunch of lefties on the schedule.

Miguel Andújar: He’s started four straight with Stanton on the IL. A cheap band-aid for the Stanton manager who needs some power.

Rougned Odor: He’s playing and hit three homers with a batting average (.237) that isn’t a complete drain.

Franchy Cordero: On the strong side of a first base platoon. So far this season, he’s hitting .254/.319/.413 with 1 HR. Boston does face six righties next week.

Seth Brown: While he has 5 HR and 4 SB, he is just hitting for power (.203/.267/.406) while only starting against righties (four lefties on next week’s schedule).

Matt Carpenter: Well, he’s started two games at DH and already hit a home run. My biggest issues with him will be playing time and if he’s good enough (projected .688 OPS) to stick in the Yankees lineup. He feels gimmicky.

Brett Phillips A power (4 HR) and speed (6 SB) threat when starting (on the strong side of a platoon). The playing time is such an issue since it’s a quarter of the way through the season and he only has 10 Runs and RBI. He’s never going to have a good batting average (.221 AVG in 2022) because of his 40% K%. Daily streamer at his best.

Mickey Moniak: While rehabbing in AA where he had five strikeouts in 15 plate appearances. He seems to have 15-20 HR power and no obvious spot for him in the outfield.

Catchers

William Contreras: He’s started five straight games and only one was at catcher. He’s been great for a catcher (.280/.379/.740, 7 HR). Must roster in all formats.

Brian Serven: The Rockies catcher is hitting .333/.333/.733 so far. He’s started in four of the last eight games. Decent streaming option with seven home games next week.

Christian Vázquez: A fine catcher who is hitting .275/.325/.367 with 2 HR.

Austin Barnes: Even though he’s hitting .235/.316/.510 with 4 HR, he’s only started in three of the last 10 games.

Hitting Prospects

Vinnie Pasquantino: Hitting .295/.392/.628 with 12 HR and 3 SB in AAA.

CBS Batter Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Josh Rojas 3B ARI 36% 45% 9%
Hunter Dozier 1B KC 36% 41% 5%
Christian Vazquez C BOS 30% 33% 3%
Kole Calhoun RF TEX 25% 45% 20%
Pavin Smith RF ARI 24% 26% 2%
Tyler Naquin RF CIN 23% 35% 12%
David Peralta LF ARI 19% 24% 5%
Brendan Donovan SS STL 18% 26% 8%
Jonathan Villar 2B CHC 17% 21% 4%
Darin Ruf LF SF 13% 22% 9%
Luis Gonzalez RF SF 12% 14% 2%
William Contreras C ATL 10% 53% 43%
Michael Harris LF ATL 10% 14% 4%
Michael Chavis 1B PIT 10% 12% 2%
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B KC 7% 14% 7%
Seth Brown 1B OAK 7% 9% 2%
Mickey Moniak CF PHI 7% 9% 2%
Oscar Gonzalez LF CLE 5% 8% 3%
Kevin Kiermaier CF TB 4% 14% 10%
Christopher Morel 2B CHC 4% 11% 7%
Edwin Rios DH LAD 4% 7% 3%
Austin Barnes C LAD 4% 6% 2%
Rougned Odor 2B BAL 3% 5% 2%
Tyrone Taylor CF MIL 2% 9% 7%
Miguel Andujar LF NYY 2% 4% 2%
Cal Mitchell RF PIT 1% 5% 4%
Emmanuel Rivera 3B KC 1% 5% 4%
Brett Phillips RF TB 1% 4% 3%
Franchy Cordero 1B BOS 1% 3% 2%
Brian Serven C COL 0% 3% 3%
Matt Carpenter 2B NYY 0% 2% 2%

Starting Pitchers

Brady Singer: I had Singer as the top add last week and nothing has changed for his week. He’s at a 9.2 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and 56% GB%.

Roansy Contreras: While the 22-year-old’s lefty’s 3.6 BB/9 is a little high but a 10.7 K/9 can cover up a ton of problems. In his first start, he threw 84 pitches in five innings.

Dane Dunning: The 4.32 ERA might be keeping some managers away but a 9.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 50% GB% is rosterable in all formats.

Jeffrey Springs: The 29-year-old lefty has been good (1.62 ERA, 3.18 xFIP, 8.9 K/9, and 0.81 WHIP) all season, but he wasn’t going long into games. That changed in his last two starts when he went five or more innings for the first time and threw a season-high 80 pitches in each start. His best pitch is by far the changeup (22% SwStr%, 53% GB%).

Aaron Ashby: Ashby’s transition to starting has been rough. While he has a 3.26 ERA, everything else is ugly (1.55 WHIP, 7.5 BB/9, 2% K%-BB%, 5.26 FIP, and 4.93 xFIP). The walks are what’s holding him back. I think the Ashby managers might be thinking they have a great two-step with him next week (at Cubs, vs Padres), but know there is a chance for a major blowup.

Johnny Cueto: He’ll allow an earned run at some point (0.00 ERA) but his results are a little better than I expected (9.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 50% GB%). If he keeps them up, he’ll be a solid starter.

David Peterson: A .219 BABIP has helped suppress his 2.16 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. While there should be some regression, his 7.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 55% GB are playable and project out to a high 3.00’s ERA.

Nick Martinez: He’s been acceptable (3.86 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9) but could take a step forward if he could stop walking batters (4.1 BB/9). The only pitch he can consistently throw for strikes is his 93-mph fastball.

JT Brubaker: The 9.9 K/9 is outstanding but too bad it’s paired with a 4.4 BB/9. He’s been better in May with his K%-BB% jumping from 10% to 18% (Manaea and Carrasco territory). The big change in May has been relying on his sinker (54% GB%, 6% SwStr%) more with his groundball rate going from 34% to 51%.

Erick Fedde: He’s been fine with a 3.55 ERA (4.16 xFIP), 8.3 K/9, and a 1.38 WHIP. His profile could improve if he’d just lower his 4.3 BB/9 (3.7 BB/9 for his career).

Jordan Lyles: He’s been a fine starter (4.10 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 1.35 WHIP) and can be streamed against weak opponents.

Jakob Junis: In four starts, he has a 3.97 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.01 WHIP, .221 BABIP, and 46% GB%. Those stats aren’t acceptable for most fantasy leagues. I’m not sure he has another gear since he’s already throwing his slider 53% of the time. The 0ver used pitch might be losing effectiveness with its swinging-strike rate dropping from 18% to 13%.

Justin Steele: With his ERA estimators around 4.00, his 5.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP are above normal because of a .354 BABIP. Besides the high BABIP, he has a 4.9 BB/9 on the season. Part of his struggles might be from his inability to throw strikes with his non-fastballs. His fastballs have a Zone% over 55% and his non-fastballs are at 40% or less. There should be a combination that should work with him, but he’s not there yet.

Keegan Thompson: If starting, Thompson is worthless since the most pitches he has thrown this year is 65 and has never faced a lineup a third time. That’s just not enough volume for a starter even if he has good rate stats (1.00 WHIP, 1.54 ERA, 8.0 K/9). If the Pirates plan on using him out of the bullpen and he can steal a Win.

Kyle Freeland: He was rostered for his two weak road matchups (PIT and WAS). His home-road splits have been extreme this year with a 6.25 ERA and 1.67 WHIP at home and 1.17 ERA and 1.17 WHIP on the road. There should be little-to-no reservations about streaming him on the road.

Alex Faedo: He’s been fine (6.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.33 WHIP, 3.00 ERA, 4.27 xFIP) with an 88% LOB% keeping his ERA down. For now, there isn’t a ton of upside in his profile.

Rich Hill: Rich Hill is doing Rich Hill things (3.86 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 1.17 WHIP). He’s only got one win on the season because he’s only gone more than 80 pitches once. That game was the only time he threw more than five innings. He’s not getting enough strikeouts to be rostered without the chance for a Win.

Zach Logue: Another two-step starter (at SEA, vs TEX) for a very meh starter. He’s got the deadly combination of too many walks (3.6 BB/9) and home runs (2.0 HR/9, 27% GB%). It doesn’t help that his average fastball velocity is under-90 mph.

JP Sears: He’s made one major start (5 IP, 84 pitches, 5 K, 2 BB, and 0 ER) and is now back in the minors. In AAA, he has a 0.83 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and a 12.5 BB/9. I don’t think he’s worth rostering right now but I’d have no qualms about adding him if he’s back in the Yankees rotation.

Wade Miley: A 58% GB% has his 3.38 ERA about a run less than his ERA estimators. He needs all the help he can get with his 5.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9. Additionally, he’s dealing with a shoulder injury that has his average fastball velocity dropping from 90.1 mph to 89.8 to 89.4.

James Kaprielian: He’s been bad (7.4 K/9, 1.35 WHIP, 1.57 HR/9, 5.48 ERA, 4.76 xFIP) and was probably only rostered for his current two-start week (at SEA, vs TEX).

Tucker Davidson: Completely unrosterable at this point with more walks (7.8 BB/9) than strikeouts (6.1 BB/9) leading to a 6.45 xFIP. Ignore.

Devin Smeltzer: Some good batted ball luck (.200 BABIP, 0 HR/9) has ERA at 1.04 while his ERA estimators point to a high 4.00’s ERA. The 4.2 K/9 is unacceptable. All of his pitches have a below-average swinging-strike rate.

Pitching Prospects

Brayan Bello: Had a 1.60 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 11.2 K/9 in AA. In AAA so far, it’s a 3.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 15.0 K/9.

Josh Winckowski: In AAA, he has a 3.13 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9.

CBS Starting Pitcher Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Aaron Ashby RP MIL 33% 58% 25%
Dane Dunning SP TEX 29% 33% 4%
James Kaprielian SP OAK 24% 28% 4%
Wade Miley SP CHC 24% 26% 2%
Roansy Contreras RP PIT 21% 38% 17%
Johnny Cueto SP CHW 19% 43% 24%
Keegan Thompson RP CHC 17% 22% 5%
Kyle Freeland SP COL 16% 20% 4%
Zach Logue SP OAK 13% 15% 2%
Brady Singer RP KC 12% 36% 24%
Justin Steele SP CHC 12% 20% 8%
David Peterson SP NYM 11% 25% 14%
Alex Faedo SP DET 10% 13% 3%
Rich Hill SP BOS 10% 12% 2%
Jake Junis SP SF 9% 20% 11%
Jordan Lyles SP BAL 8% 13% 5%
Nick Martinez SP SD 8% 13% 5%
J.T. Brubaker SP PIT 8% 10% 2%
Tucker Davidson SP ATL 7% 13% 6%
Erick Fedde SP WAS 7% 10% 3%
Jeffrey Springs RP TB 6% 23% 17%
Brayan Bello SP BOS 6% 10% 4%
Devin Smeltzer SP MIN 1% 3% 2%
JP Sears RP NYY 0% 4% 4%
Josh Winckowski RP BOS 0% 2% 2%

Relievers – Saves-based ranks

Emilio Pagán: Good reliever who is sharing the closer role.

Paul Sewald: Good reliever who is sharing the closer role.

John Schreiber: Good reliever who may be the closer.

Alexis Díaz: OK reliever who is sharing the closer role.

J.P. Feyereisen: Good reliever who is sharing the closer role.

Brooks Raley 레일리: Good reliever who is sharing the closer role.

Adam Cimber: Below average reliever who is the backup closer.

A.J. Minter: Great reliever who is a couple of steps away from a being the closer.

Zach Jackson: OK reliever who is a couple of steps away from a being the closer.

Matt Barnes: Bad reliever who shouldn’t be the closer … ever.

CBS Relief Pitcher Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Emilio Pagan RP MIN 40% 45% 5%
Matt Barnes RP BOS 28% 32% 4%
Paul Sewald RP SEA 25% 27% 2%
Adam Cimber RP TOR 15% 17% 2%
J.P. Feyereisen RP TB 13% 19% 6%
Brooks Raley RP TB 13% 16% 3%
Alexis Diaz RP CIN 7% 11% 4%
A.J. Minter RP ATL 6% 11% 5%
Zach Jackson RP OAK 1% 3% 2%
John Schreiber RP BOS 1% 3% 2%





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR once, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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alan fogelmember
2 months ago

Excellent commentary. Thanks!