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Mining the News (3/23/22)

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

American League

Athletics

Seth Brown is not expected to play first base and the outfield is up for grabs.

Seth Brown, who backed up Olson with a handful of games there last season, seems like an ideal replacement. However, A’s manager Mark Kotsay indicated that Brown is being looked at as more of an outfielder to this point. That leaves the competition down to three players in camp as non-roster invitees: Eric Thames 테임즈, Dalton Kelly and Billy McKinney.

There’s also uncertainty with the corner-outfield spots. Left field could see a left-right platoon formed between Brown and Chad Pinder. The A’s might also need Brown or Pinder to shift over to right field, as Stephen Piscotty has been dealing with a shoulder issue in camp and has yet to appear in a Cactus League game. If Piscotty’s injury lingers to the point where he’s not available for Opening Day, the door could open for Skye Bolt or Buddy Reed to nab a spot on the roster.

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Mining the News (3/21/22)

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

American League

Angels

Justin Upton is taking some reps at first base because of Jared Walsh’s heavy platoon split.

But Upton, who is earning $28 million in 2022 and has a full no-trade clause, is fully healthy and the Angels plan to experiment with him at first base, where he could potentially serve as the backup to left-handed-hitting Jared Walsh. Upton would face lefties to give Walsh a break, and he could also platoon with lefty Brandon Marsh in left field as well. Upton is a career .259/.359/.493 hitter against left-handers and batted .225/.355/.483 against them last year.

“We have him working at first base because there might be an opportunity to give Walshy a day off against a tough left-hander,” Angels manager Joe Maddon said. “There’s different ways to get his bat in the lineup. He’s getting his typical work in the outfield corners, but we wanted to introduce him at first base just in case that became pertinent.”

So far in his career, Walsh has a .604 OPS vs lefties and .945 against righties. Last season, Upton had a .838 OPS vs lefties and .652 against righties. The hitting part should work, but Upton just has to play a passable first base.

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Mining the News (3/16/22)

American League

Angels

Mike Trout will now be playing centerfield and Brandon Marsh doesn’t have a position after a conflicting report earlier in the week.

The Angels considered starting Brandon Marsh in center but ultimately decided to keep Trout there after he indicated that’s where he’d like to play and he’s in good health. Notably, Marsh also has to earn his spot on the roster this spring and there remains the possibility Marsh could be traded for pitching.

Guardians

• The starters will be throwing around 65 pitches on Opening Day.

Add it all up and Francona believes pitchers will likely only get built up to about 65 pitches, on average, by the time Opening Day arrives April 7 in Kansas City.

For now, the Guardians will spend the next three weeks stretching out relievers to help ease the burden on the starters.

Chris Antonetti said. “So, the more pitchers that are capable of pitching multiple innings, the better. Pitchers that have a history of starting demonstrated a track record of kind of holding more innings, so we could look at some of those guys who have been historically starters as relief options.”

I wonder if teams are going to plan on several tandem starters early on to help save the traditional bullpen arms for the other starters.

Orioles

Rougned Odor will be a second baseman and not play third.

Upon his signing, Odor slid directly to the top of the O’s depth chart at second base. And there’s no overbearing competition at his flank; Jahmai Jones and Richie Martin could incite a conversation with strong camps, as could No. 13 prospect Terrin Vavra. But someone like Shed Long Jr., whom Baltimore signed to a Minor League deal this offseason, is fighting against the reality of a full 40-man roster with other needs ahead of him — as well as rehab from right leg surgery in October.

Odor does have some experience at third base, though it only came across 33 games for the Yankees last season after DJ LeMahieu was injured. How was that experience?

“Uncomfortable,” Odor said.

It seems like Kelvin Gutierrez will get the first shot at the third base job.

Rangers

Eli White reworked his swing.

“Donnie (Ecker, new hitting coach) said it was Eli White, without a doubt,” Woodward relayed. “He’s always been kind of an east-to-west (swinger), shoulders kind of coming around. And he’s working north to south now with that bat angle. I saw (the batting practice pitcher) put it on the inside corner on him, and he hit one almost off the batting cages out there in left-center. The only way you can do that is with the proper path. So that was really encouraging. … Hopefully it sticks, because that was probably the most impressive part of the day.”

It’s not unusual for a player to overhaul their swing during the offseason. What is unusual is to do it successfully in an offseason in which a player isn’t allowed to talk to his hitting coaches. In fact, the new tandem of hitting coaches Ecker and Tim Hyers had just one short Zoom meeting with White before baseball’s lockout forced them into radio silence for three-plus months.

Tigers

Casey Mize plans on revamping his arsenal by mainly throwing his splitter more.

[Mize] buckled Javier Báez with a breaking ball. He says he plans to work in his curveball, which opponents hit .129 against in 2021, more often this season. He will likely cut back on using his sinker, maybe working it in occasionally to right-handers but eliminating it completely against lefties (left-handed batters hit .327 against the sinker last season).

And central to everything is the splitter.

Last season that splitter oddly disappeared. Consider, then, the fact Mize posted a 3.71 ERA largely without his most important weapon. Mize threw his splitter only 13.2 percent of the time.

“I would just throw a couple in a game that I didn’t like early on and abandon it, which is something I had never done in the past,” Mize said. “I told myself, ‘Keep throwing this pitch because it’s so good for you.’ But I did that a few games in a row, where I threw a couple in the first two innings that I didn’t like and didn’t throw it (again). … I think the decrease in volume led to a decrease in feel.”

Mize didn’t miss many bats with any of his pitches but at least a couple generated some groundballs.

Casey Mize’s Pitches
Pitch SwStr% GB% Usage
Four-seam 11% 33% 30%
Slider 11% 45% 28%
Sinker 5% 53% 22%
Splitter 10% 70% 13%
Curve 9% 33% 7%

National League

Brewers

Devin Williams is adding a slider/cutter.

Would he describe the pitch as more cutter or more slider?

“It depends,” Williams said. “Sometimes it’s a cutter, sometimes it’s a slider.”

The Brewers will let Williams tinker with the pitch during Spring Training and then make a collective decision at the end of Spring Training. A full camp is a bonus in itself; last year, Williams was limited after ending 2020 with a right shoulder injury.

• For now, Tyrone Taylor will not be getting full-time at-bats.

Brewers officials could not yet publicly discuss their agreement with veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen on Tuesday morning because the deal was still pending a physical exam, but Counsell did answer a question about one player potentially impacted by the acquisition: Tyrone Taylor. Said Counsell: “Tyrone’s role is going to be dependent on other guys. That’s probably where we’re going to sit here. The way you’d expect a season to go, that’s going to mean a lot of at-bats.”

Cardinals

Alex Reyes is delusional.

Reyes said he attempted to build up his arm stamina throughout the offseason by playing catch on a regular basis. However, Reyes said he has yet to throw off a pitching mound — something that he wanted to avoid because of the soreness in his throwing shoulder.

“I played catch pretty much most of the offseason,” Reyes said. “But, like I said, it was just kind of like soreness staying in there a little bit. But hopefully I’ll have worked through here in the next few days.”

So for the entire offseason, Reyes has dealt with shoulder soreness, but magically he’ll be fine in a day or two. I don’t buy it one bit.

Cubs

Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson could start the season in a piggyback starter situation.

Last season, the trio of Alzolay, Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson gained MLB experience both out of the rotation and in the bullpen. As camp opens, Steele and Thompson will be in the mix for one of the rotation jobs.

That said, Steele and Thompson also found success as multi-inning relievers for the Cubs last year. Given the shorter spring schedule, pitching coach Tommy Hottovy noted that there could be “piggyback” outings, if starters are not stretched out all the way. Steele and Thompson could fit that mold as hybrid options come Opening Day.

• The Cubs will not go with one person as the designated hitter.

The way manager David Ross sees things going, the Cubs will have a revolving door in the designated hitter role this season. Ross will want to mix and match players in that slot based on matchups, rest or other factors.

“It gives us some more flexibility, right?” Ross said. “I’m sure that’ll be an ever-changing spot of who’s swinging the bat well and who needs rest.”

Ross noted that outfielder Ian Happ, who is working his way back from a right elbow issue, could be used as a DH early in the season. Catchers Willson Contreras and Yan Gomes could also see time at DH this season to have them both in the lineup when it makes sense.

Marlins

Brian Anderson could spend time in the outfield.

With the addition of utility player Joey Wendle, Brian Anderson may see some looks in left field — a position he hasn’t played in his professional career. Anderson, who was an NL Gold Glove finalist at third base in 2020, last appeared in the outfield in 2019 — with 55 games in right. Mattingly compared Anderson to free agent Kris Bryant when it comes to being an athlete with defensive versatility.

“I’m always open to it,” said Anderson, who will continue to get his infield work in before taking fly balls. “I haven’t done it in a couple of years. But the last couple of times that I did it, it helped me out and helped the team out. That’s my job now, especially getting a guy like Wendle that can play multiple positions.

Mets

Carlos Carrasco pitched with a bone fragment in his elbow for seven years.

“Everything’s really good right now,” Carrasco said afterward, noting that he had pitched with the bone fragment for the past seven seasons. “It was the time to take it out. That’s what I did, and I’m glad I did, because I feel better.”

At least it’s gone now.

Jeff McNeil will be the Mets starting second baseman.

“I don’t think it will be split. Mac will get the majority [of playing time] there,” he said. Asked about Canó’s role, Showalter replied “I think Robbie knows he’s not going to play second base for us as much as he wants to. But we hope he’s not a pure DH either. There’s the potential for him to play some first base if needed. I wouldn’t put him in the outfield.”

Padres

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 will get the first shot as Fernando Tatis Jr.’s replacement.

In Tatis’ absence, the Padres plan to give Ha-Seong Kim the bulk of the reps at shortstop, and he’s penciled in as their Opening Day starter. An excellent defender, Kim has question marks surrounding his bat after a debut season that saw him hit .202/.270/.352.

The Padres are optimistic about the strides Kim has made adjusting to velocity from year one to year two — a focal point during the offseason. But if the offensive struggles persist, Jake Cronenworth could slide from second to short on occasion. Or, perhaps the most intriguing option, top Padres prospect CJ Abrams could earn his big league breakthrough if he performs this spring.

Phillies

Didi Gregorius had surgery to remove multiple bone spurs in his elbow that prevented him from hitting or throwing last season.

“They just tried to figure out what it was,” he said. “I had to play like that because I told them I didn’t want to miss any games. I wasn’t my best. … I couldn’t swing. I couldn’t extend. I couldn’t do anything. I couldn’t throw, so my throws were going all over the place. And swinging, if I can’t extend it, I couldn’t hit any pitch. The only pitches I was hitting were mostly pitches away. I even backed off the plate so I could kind of get extended. I was going through a lot last year, but that’s behind my back.”

Gregorius said he is healthy now. He is ready to compete, even if it means playing third base.

• The Phillies bullpen is not going to start the season with any defined roles.

The manager has interchangeable parts for late-inning situations. That is helpful, especially since Girardi has strict rules for his relievers’ workloads.

“You look towards the first couple of weeks of the season, you’re going to expect more innings out of your bullpen,” Girardi said. “So you’re going to probably need to interchange more than you normally would.”

Reds

Kyle Farmer will be the Reds shortstop … until he is traded away.

Right now, Farmer is the man, Bell said.

“Kyle, everything he did last year offensively, defensively, what he means to our team — I don’t even think that is a question,” Bell said. “He’s coming in as the shortstop.”

• The Reds have several outfield and DH options.

Before the trade, Bell had projected Winker in left, Nick Senzel in center and Tyler Naquin in right. Senzel and Naquin both finished the year injured, but the good news is that Bell said Senzel was in camp and looked good.

“I’m very confident that it’s going to be a big year for Nick and he’s healthy,” Bell said. “He is here. He looks good. He’s ready to go. A good mindset.”

The team also has Aristides Aquino, Shogo Akiyama, TJ Friedl, Max Schrock, and now Jake Fraley, who was acquired in the Winker deal. A lineup with Naquin at DH and Senzel, Aquino, and Fraley patrolling the outfield is a possibility.

Here are the group’s splits and projections.

Reds OF & DH Options
Name Career OPS vs LHP Career OPS vs RHP Projected OPS (DC)
Aristides Aquino .792 .780 .763
Tyler Naquin .633 .804 .753
Jake Fraley .475 .726 .744
Nick Senzel .773 .681 .744
Shogo Akiyama .594 .594 .705
Max Schrock .891 .735 .700

Senzel, Naquin, Fraley, and Aquino look like nice bets for regular playing time.

Rockies

Sam Hilliard lost 20 pounds over the offseason because of a stomach virus.

“My body feels good after doing all my training in Fort Worth, but when I went to the Dominican [Winter League] I actually got a stomach virus and lost about 20 pounds,” Hilliard said. “I had to hurry and gain a bunch of that weight on, but I’m working with the dieticians and strength coaches.”


Mining the News (3/14/22)

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

American League

Angels

• The Angels are going with a six-man rotation.

The Halos will have a six-man rotation again in 2022, so they could look to add another starter.

• In the shortstop battle, Joe Maddon thinks Andrew Velazquez has a leg up on the competition.

Outside of pitching, the club’s biggest weakness is at shortstop. Maddon said he sees Andrew Velazquez as the current leader there, ahead of Luis Rengifo and Tyler Wade. All three will compete for the job, but there remains a chance the Angels acquire a shortstop.

Projected wOBA for the three shortstops
Velazquez: .290
Rengifo: .304
Wade: .281
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NL LABR Reserve Round Picks

Earlier this week, I examined some of the reserve round picks in the AL LABR auction. Today, I’ve moved to the NL auction. To put it simply, the player talent took a significant step down from the AL options. So many players were rostered who will never make it to the majors this season or are just plain bad. For example, Nomar Mazara, who has yet to sign with a team and never had a productive major league season, was rostered.

Here are all the reserve picks


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AL LABR Reserve Round Picks

Every year, USA Today’s Steve Gardner hosts four LABR drafts and auctions. The LABR draft happened a couple of weeks ago with the three auctions (12 team AL, NL, and mixed) happening this past weekend. I was lucky enough to participate in the 12-team mixed auction (more on it later), but the most useful information is digging into the reserve picks. Sometimes I’ve never even heard of them. I’m going to dive into some of these end-game players from the AL auction and look for any hidden gems.

Here are all the reserve picks

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Summation of 2021 Projection Accuracy

Earlier this offseason I examined the accuracy of several projections. I’m going to give my recommendations today on the best way to balance those findings between getting the best results and keeping the process simple. I’m going to focus on playing time and stats for pitchers and hitters. While there could a way to weigh every single stat of every projection, it’s just a waste of time in my opinion. The best answer is to aggregate the best options.

I know some people will want a more in-depth answer while the following will be too much for others. Some projections, like ATC, are already trying to perfect the mix and still fall short of a straight average. The cause for the disconnect is that some of the stand-alone projections are constantly improving. What may be the best projection mix in one season is suboptimal in the next. I’m willing to have 95% of the projection accuracy and instead spend my time looking for information that the projections might have missed. Read the rest of this entry »


Auction Calculator Draft Sheet

Be sure to check out Lucas Kelly’s Beginning Guide to the Calculator

After going over what several members of our team would like in a draft prep spreadsheet, we made one that takes the output from our auction calculator and creates position rankings.

Important: We tried to include all the necessary information into the Google Sheet, but it won’t be ideal for everyone. You are encouraged to customize it to your tastes as it’d be too hard to take all individual requests to set up the perfect one for everyone. Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (3/1/2021)

American League

Blue Jays

Nate Pearson was told before the lockout to prepare to be in the rotation.

Before the lockout, in your end-of-year talks with the team or offseason talks, did they give you any indication of what your role might look like this year? Or was it just like go into the offseason, prepare to be stretched out and we’ll go from there?

Yeah, that was basically it. Just come in, you’re going to come in as a starter and you’re going to provide some depth for us. We’re going to build you up and we’ll see how it goes from there. And that’s exactly how I’m approaching it. I don’t know exactly what my role will be, whether I’ll be in the rotation, or a long-relief guy or bullpen guy. Whatever it may be, just be ready for it. And that’s exactly my mentality and my mindset going into it.

I don’t think he can stay healthy enough to remain in the rotation. He’ll have to transition to the bullpen leading to another up and down summer.

Rays

Tommy Pham would be willing to play some first base, especially for the Rays.

Tommy Pham is one of the many free agents still without a contract for 2022, and the lockout has only added to the uncertainty facing Pham’s market following a pair of underwhelming seasons with the Padres. However, Pham is looking to increase his positional value, with The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin writing that the veteran outfielder is “open to playing first base if needed.”

Specifically, Pham said he would be interested in playing first base in a second stint with the Rays, as Pham played in Tampa during the 2018-19 seasons. The Rays are known to be looking for a right-handed hitting first base option, and a reunion with Pham would be a creative way of addressing that need.

Red Sox

Garrett Whitlock was told to come into Spring Training to be a starter and the team will adjust from there.

[Whitlock] would love to be a starter again.

“I enjoy starting,” he said. “I love the routine behind it and everything, but at the same time, I’m a competitor. So whenever you tell me to go out there and get outs, I’m going to treat it as if it’s a 0-0 ballgame and I’ve got to bury you and I’ve got to put you away.

“So it doesn’t matter to me whether that’s the first pitch of the game or the ninth inning or anywhere in between.”

Red Sox manager Alex Cora hasn’t asked him to start.

“I’m a Year 2 guy now,” Whitlock said. “I haven’t earned that.”

Before the lockout, the Sox gave him some advice.

“They told me to come in prepared to be, like, fighting for a starting job, and they’ll reevaluate it from there,” he said. “So I’m going to build up and I’m going to go in and be as prepared as I can be.”

His role will likely depend on how many other players the team adds.

Matt Barnes blames several factors for last season’s decline.

Barnes, 31, doesn’t think his problems from last year will linger into the future. He believes a variety of factors contributed to his sharp decline.

“I think it was kind of a perfect storm of scenarios,” he said. “I threw a lot in a short period of time and I think, as a pitcher, you try to create what you had when you were completely fresh. That, in turn, creates bad habits. That happens, then trying to fix it and it felt like we were getting close and I had to sit down for a couple of weeks because I got COVID (Aug. 30-Sept. 17). I then just ran out of time.”

One interesting point is how he was used. His results were all over the place depending on the amount of rest he had (horrible with zero and two days, great with one or three). I wonder if the Red Sox would go with dual closers with Barnes getting 25 or so Saves and another arm accumulating about 10. It’s something to monitor.

Twins

Jim L. states:

Are there analytics around the costs/benefits of a versus a [DH] job-share situation?

With all the respects to Jim, I don’t care about your question, but it did get me to look into the Twins DH usage after Cruz was traded.

Post Nelson Cruz DH Usage
Name Count %
Donaldson 27 53%
Rooker 7 14%
Polanco 6 12%
Sano 5 10%
Arraez 4 8%
Garver 2 4%

That’s a lot of Josh Donaldson. It’ll be interesting to see who gets the starts at third base (e.g. Jose Miranda or Luis Arraez). And more importantly, how often?

National League

Cardinals

Giovanny Gallegos is not the team’s closer according to their GM.

During November’s general manager meetings, Mozeliak indicated the team did not have a set closer in mind for 2022. Gallegos could be a candidate for that role, but it’s unlikely the Cardinals name one until they complete their bullpen. They are expected to add one more reliever after the lockout, preferring an established veteran with experience in a multitude of roles.

Gallegos has an NFBC ADP around 115 which seems a little high considering the uncertainty.

Diamondbacks

Dan Straily 스트레일리 , who signed with the Diamondbacks, revamped his arsenal in Korea.

“I went over there because I had some things to work on,” Straily said. “And I was very aware of that. So I got over there and just went to work on them.”

Straily completely changed his curveball grip, worked on fine-tuning his changeup after watching what was a plus pitch for him flatten out over the years, and developed consistency with his cut fastball.

Here at FanGraphs, we have some pitch data from Korea with his fastball averaging 90.7 mph. It was his highest average since his debut season in 2012 when he sat 91.3 mph.

Mets

• The Mets (and others) might go with a six-man rotation to ramp up their starters.

That training camp was just over three weeks; if we have another one in the three- to four-week range — which seems likely — I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets (and other teams) adopted a six-man rotation early in the season and/or carried an extra arm in the bullpen for piggybacking purposes. A player like Trevor Williams could be useful in both roles for New York.


What’s Worse in Roto, a .220 AVG or a 5.00 ERA?

Here is a tale of two tweets.

The first one tries to see if fantasy managers would consider rostering a great pitcher in every regard except they would have a 5.00 ERA.

And now the same options (I see the steam vs. stream mistake, my bad!) but for a hitter who is projected to have a .220 AVG.

The results are a stark difference. The deal is that a .220 AVG and a 5.00 ERA will hurt a roto team the same amount. While it may not be obvious, a little math might help. To determine the effects, I took the Standings Gain Points equations from 15-team redraft leagues from The Process (a great resource, you should buy it).

AVG SGP = ((1669+H)/(6525+AB)-0.256)/0.0012

ERA SGP = (((489+ER)*9)/(1122+IP)-3.92)/(-0.0566)

These formulas determine how much a fantasy team would move up and down the standings based on the rate stat. The volume does matter since it’s worse to add 150 innings of a 5.00 ERA to a team than just 20 innings. Read the rest of this entry »