Waiver Wire Report (Week 10)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Christopher Morel: I can’t believe Morel (.303/.388/.528, 3 HR, 6 SB) was still at 40%. A must roster in all formats.

Nico Hoerner: In any league with steals as a category, Hoerner is on pace for 24 with some power and batting average. Additionally, he qualified at second and short.

Jon Berti: A stolen base (10 SB) play who is not a complete zero in power (2 HR, .136 ISO) and batting average (.273). Additionally, his 15% BB% should help keep him in the lineup. The only red flag is who sits when Joey Wendle comes off the IL.

Santiago Espinal: He’s been fine (5 HR, 3 SB, .293 AVG) while being qualified at second and third. He’s started nine straight games.

Kyle Farmer: He’s on place for 15 HR, 12 SB, and a .257 AVG. That’s useful in some formats, not in others.

Brendan Donovan: He was on fire for a bit but he is currently on pace for 4 HR, 8 SB, and a .295 AVG. He has started 13 of the last 14 games moving all over the field (qualified at 3B, OF, needs three or fewer games for 1B, 2B, and SS) so he might be a bench bat accumulator.

Jake Burger: In 35 games, he has 7 HR and a .275 AVG. That’ll play from a decimated third base position. He has started five straight and even more playing time might have opened up some with Gavin Sheets getting demoted. A nice power-average option.

Luis García: I’m way too biased since I’ve liked him after he debuted in 2020 as a 20-year-old. He did great in AAA (.314/.368/.531, 8 HR) is season and continued those results to the majors (.314/.324/.457, 52% StatCast HardHit%). He’ll have no speed and he profiles with power and a good batting average similar to that of Jonathan Schoop or Corey Seager.

Oscar Gonzalez: Gonzalez starts every day (14 straight games) and has been hitting a ton of groundballs (61% GB%) hard (49% StatCast HardHit%). His .449 BABIP won’t hold up, but if he can just lift the ball, a major breakout could be in the works.

Garrett Cooper: While his over .400 BABIP will regress bringing down his .315 AVG, he’s providing some power (4 HR) and playing every day while qualified at first and outfield. He is currently on the COVID-IL.

Lane Thomas: Thomas’s overall season has been disappointing. Even with a three-homer game, he’s just hitting .245/.298/.426 with 6 HR. Maybe his 34 June plate appearances point to a breakout (.438/.471/.813). The team has noticed and has him batting first or second over the last seven games. Even with the improved lineup spot, he’ll likely disappoint fantasy managers if he doesn’t start running like he did last season (6 SB in 77 games).

Jace Peterson: While his .218 AVG is a drag, his 6 HR and 8 SB are a huge help in roto leagues. Those stats should continue if he plays. The Brewers will need to figure out which infielder will sit when Kolton Wong comes off the IL.

Ezequiel Duran: For teams needing a bump in stolen bases, Duran is likely a must roster since he can provide them from the third base position (7 SB in AAA, 19 in 2021). He’s held his own so far in the majors (.273/.273/.409, 1 HR, 0 SB) while starting in six straight games.

Jose Miranda: While Miranda has been hitting for power (.224/.255/.418, 4 HR), he’s only started in seven of the last 10 games. It’s tough to know when he sits because it’s against random righties. While he has keeper potential, I’m not sure how invested I am in rostering him except in the deepest redraft leagues.

Jack Suwinski: The 23-year-old has been a pleasant surprise with his power-only approach (.231/.285/.471, 8 HR, 2 SB). He’s generally getting full-time at-bats. He starts six games and then gets a day off. He’s a nice power bat who will chip in a few steals but drag down a batting average.

Bryson Stott: The 24-year-old has struggled in the majors this season (.184/.243/.301) while dominating AAA (.333/.375/.611). In 33 June plate appearances, he’s hitting .333/.394/.667. He might be worth adding as a bench bat to see if the hot streak continues since he’s playing every day (eight straight starts) and he’s qualified at second and short.

Alex Kirilloff: It’s time to see if he’ll suck me back in. He’s been dealing with wrist issues for a few years now but is hitting .339/.448/.554 with 6 HR in AAA. It’ll be interesting to see if/when he gets promoted and how much he’ll play on a team without an obvious need.

Nathaniel Lowe: I’m not sure what’s the rush to roster a first baseman who is on pace to hit 21 HR with a .276 AVG. Bench bat at best.

Rougned Odor: He’s playing and hitting a few home runs (6 HR) with his batting average (.212) being a drag.

Trent Grisham: On the season, he’s been horrible (.180 AVG, 3 HR, 1 SB) led by career high’s in strikeout rate (26%), pull rate (46%), and groundball rate (46%). He has hit better (.256/.385/.488) over the last two weeks.

Catchers

Jose Trevino: Trevino has become the Yankees go-to catcher. His batting average is way up (.290 AVG) because he’s dropped his strikeout rate from 19% to 13%. Any catcher who is not a drag on batting average is probably a must roster.

Gabriel Moreno: He’s one of the top prospects in the game and was hitting .324/.380/.404 with 1 HR and 3 SB in AAA. One question is how much will he play. Second, will he hit enough to be useful or fall on his face like several other recent catching prospects?

Cal Raleigh: He’s it 7 HR to go with a .173 AVG (33% K%, .173 BABIP). He might be worth taking a shot on since he’s showing improvement each month (.423 OPS to .622 OPS to .999 OPS). Gamble on the improvement sticking.

Jorge Alfaro: Something is going to have to give with Alfaro. Currently, he has a 40% K% and .419 BABIP. Together, they have his batting average at .269. Overall though, a fine second catcher.

Max Stassi: Replacement level catcher (.245/.341/.400, 4 HR).

Hitting Prospects

Vinnie Pasquantino: Hitting .286/.380/.622 with 16 HR and 3 SB in AAA but must have been caught pissing in Dayton Moore’s Wheaties to still be in the minors.

Gunnar Henderson: Hit .312/.452/.573 with 8 HR and 12 SB and has recently been promoted to AAA.

Ezequiel Tovar: Hitting .317/.393/.579 with 12 HR and 16 SB in AA for the Rockies.

CBS Hitter Rostership Rates
Name Initial Roster% Fina Roster% Change
Christopher Morel CF CHC 40% 70% 30%
Kyle Farmer SS CIN 37% 54% 17%
Trent Grisham CF SD 35% 37% 2%
Santiago Espinal 2B TOR 34% 49% 15%
Nate Lowe 1B TEX 34% 36% 2%
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B KC 30% 35% 5%
Alex Kirilloff LF MIN 29% 33% 4%
Brendan Donovan RF STL 25% 33% 8%
Gabriel Moreno C TOR 24% 46% 22%
Jose Miranda 1B MIN 24% 32% 8%
Nico Hoerner SS CHC 24% 27% 3%
Max Stassi C LAA 24% 26% 2%
Garrett Cooper 1B MIA 15% 33% 18%
Bryson Stott SS PHI 15% 30% 15%
Jace Peterson 3B MIL 12% 17% 5%
Oscar Gonzalez RF CLE 12% 16% 4%
Rougned Odor 2B BAL 11% 13% 2%
Luis Garcia SS WAS 8% 19% 11%
Jose Trevino C NYY 7% 20% 13%
Lane Thomas LF WAS 7% 14% 7%
Gunnar Henderson SS BAL 7% 9% 2%
Ezequiel Tovar SS COL 6% 8% 2%
Ezequiel Duran 3B TEX 5% 18% 13%
Jorge Alfaro C SD 5% 7% 2%
Jon Berti 3B MIA 4% 10% 6%
Jake Burger 3B CHW 4% 8% 4%
Cal Raleigh C SEA 3% 8% 5%
Jack Suwinski RF PIT 1% 8% 7%

Starters

Ross Stripling: Besides Ashcraft, Stripling is the only pitcher I’d feel comfortable rostering from this week’s waiver wire. Stripling has a 7.5 K/9, 1.14 WHIP, and 3.65 ERA with no regression expected. He’s made the improvement by moving away from his fastball (8% SwStr%, 48% GB%) and throwing his slider (12% SwStr%, 62% GB%) and changeup (22% SwStr%, 57% GB%) more. This will be the last week to roster him.

Graham Ashcraft: I’m all in at his point with Ashcraft and it has nothing to do with his 1.14 ERA. My focus is on the 61% GB%, three games with a 6.0 K/9 or higher, a 97-mph fastball, ERA estimators in the 3.50 range, and having thrown six or more innings in his last three starts. Those are the traits of a rosterable starter who can be streamed off a bench.

Jakob Junis: A .231 BABIP (career .303 BABIP) has suppressed his 2.63 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with his ERA estimators in the high 3.00’s. While his strikeouts (7.5 K/9) aren’t ideal, he’s a streaming option when healthy. The problem is right now, he’s on the IL (hamstring). With so few starting pitching options, he might be worth stash while his cost is down.

Alex Faedo: A low strikeout rate (6.8 K/9) paired with no other above-average traits has him as a boring streamer-only option.

Zach Davies: He’s throwing strikes this season (4.6 BB/9 in 2021) as seen by his K%-BB% increasing from 6% to 11%. He’s one of the only pitchers who you see is what you get. He’s pitching like a low-4.00’s ERA guy and he has a 4.21 ERA. Streamer against weak opponents.

Mitch Keller: Since moving to a sinker three starts ago, he has a 2.51 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, and 55% GB%. For now, everything looks fine except those WHIP-killing walks. I have no faith in starting him at this point, but maybe I might try to add him if I have room on my bench.

Keegan Thompson: His .268 BABIP is keeping WHIP (1.14) and ERA (3.17) in check with ERA estimators closer to 4.00. While his 51% GB% indicates some ability to limit hard contact, he might even be better when looking at his individual pitches. His four-seam and change have a 40% GB% while cutter is 54% GB% and his curve at 64% GB%. One other item to consider is that he has a 5.24 ERA (4.84 xFIP) as a starter and a 1.38 ERA (3.65 xFIP) as a reliever.

Devin Smeltzer: While I believe what Ashcraft is doing with a minuscule walk rate, I don’t with Smeltzer. Smeltzer has a .194 BABIP leading to his 2.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. His 4.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 46% GB% instead put his ERA estimators in the 5.00 range. I’m going to bet on history and regression and just stay away from rostering him.

Konnor Pilkington: A Glen Otto clone with a 5.6 BB/9 helping lead to an unrosterable 1.54 WHIP. A 3.57 ERA isn’t going to last even if he has a 9.9 K/9. The home runs (0.4 HR/9) will eventually come and when paired with the walks, the ERA will also explode. There is a chance he can get the walks under control and then he’ll be rosterable pitcher.

Matt Swarmer: The soft-tossing 28-year-old’s results were outstanding (0.83 WHIP, 1.50 ERA) but the Yankees lit him up like a Christmas Tree (6 ER in 5 IP) and pushed his ERA up to 4.24 (4.11 xFIP). His biggest issue is the long ball (4.8 HR/9). On top of the home run issues, he’s only a fastball-slider guy so he might struggle the second or third time through the order.

Glenn Otto: He’s unrosterable until he gets his walks (5.1 BB/9, 1.36 WHIP) under control. The 4.24 ERA is OK, but his ERA estimators have it around 5.00. He might end up being a decent starter but he’s not there right now.

Jared Koenig: The 28-year-old lefty struggled in his debut (4 ER, 3 K, and 2 BB in 4 IP) and looks to have another start against Boston. He’s not considered to be a prospect but was dominating AAA with a 2.21 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9. I’m not interested at this point.

Pitching Prospects

Gavin Stone: The Dodgers prospect had a 1.44 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 10.1 K/9 in High-A and now a 0.41 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 15.1 K/9 in AA.

CBS Starting Pitching Rostership Rates
Name Initial Roster% Fina Roster% Change
Keegan Thompson RP CHC 37% 42% 5%
Jake Junis SP SF 35% 41% 6%
Graham Ashcraft SP CIN 20% 57% 37%
Devin Smeltzer SP MIN 15% 19% 4%
Glenn Otto SP TEX 14% 16% 2%
Alex Faedo SP DET 12% 21% 9%
Konnor Pilkington SP CLE 10% 23% 13%
Mitch Keller SP PIT 10% 12% 2%
Zach Davies SP ARI 8% 10% 2%
Ross Stripling RP TOR 5% 20% 15%
Matt Swarmer SP CHC 3% 7% 4%
Gavin Stone SP LAD 1% 3% 2%
Jared Koenig SP OAK 0% 3% 3%

Closers – Ranks based on Saves

Tanner Rainey: OK reliever who is the closer.

Tanner Scott: Good reliever who is the closer.

Paul Sewald: OK reliever who is getting most of the Saves.

Diego Castillo: Above-average reliever who is getting some of the Saves.

Matt Strahm: Good reliever who may be the closer or may be sharing the closing duties.

Jason Adam: Good reliever who is sharing the closer duties.

Colin Poche: Below-average reliever who is sharing closer duties.

Daniel Hudson: Good reliever who is the backup closer and is temporarily getting Saves.

Eli Morgan: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

A.J. Minter: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

Seranthony Domínguez: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

Alex Lange: Good reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.

CBS Relief Pitching Rostership Rates
Name Initial Roster% Fina Roster% Change
Tanner Rainey RP WAS 34% 37% 3%
Paul Sewald RP SEA 28% 35% 7%
Daniel Hudson RP LAD 23% 28% 5%
A.J. Minter RP ATL 15% 19% 4%
Colin Poche RP TB 11% 16% 5%
Diego Castillo RP SEA 8% 14% 6%
Seranthony Dominguez RP PHI 5% 8% 3%
Jason Adam RP TB 4% 9% 5%
Alex Lange RP DET 3% 5% 2%
Elijah Morgan RP CLE 2% 7% 5%
Matt Strahm RP BOS 1% 8% 7%
Tanner Scott RP MIA 1% 6% 5%





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR once, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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neilage
2 months ago

STL Zack Thompson?