Just to be clear, the following players are far from the best players involved. I’m focusing on the guys moving up in value. Some might not even be in play in most leagues (e.g. Reds outfield) but have the biggest up arrows attached to them.

1. Félix Bautista (BAL): Of the bullpen changes, Bautista seems the most likely to get the bulk of the Saves with Jorge López gone even though others releivers could be involved.

Félix Bautista, Cionel Pérez and Dillon Tate are candidates to close for the Orioles depending on matchups, Brandon Hyde said.

— Nathan Ruiz (@NathanSRuiz) August 2, 2022

I see the other being treated like Bautista was before the trade when he got three Saves.

On the season, Bautista has been great with a 1.66 ERA (2.77 xFIP), 11.6 K/9, and 0.88 WHIP. Looking across various shallow platforms (12-teams or fewer), he seems to be about 50% available. Read the rest of this entry »

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more of these leagues: Read the rest of this entry »

7:31	Jeff Zimmerman:

Read the rest of this entry »

Good luck on the first trade deadline weekend. The trades are a little slower than expected.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

Note: Real life got in the way yesterday and had to cut short the article. I wasn’t able to get to each team but here are some observations on some teams.

American League

Guardians

• Steady.

• Nolan Jones (.288/.383/.500, 2 HR) has started in nine of the last ten games.

Mariners

• Kyle Lewis (.737 OPS) has started in only four of seven games since being promoted.

Orioles

• Ramón Urías (.261/.302/.454, 11 HR) has started 16 straight games.

Rangers

• Ezequiel Duran (.250/.290/.386, 2 HR, and 3 SB in 93 PA) has started in seven of the last eight games.

• Josh H. Smith (.213/.315/.269, 1 HR, 2 SB) has started in eight of the last 10 games.

Rays

• Luke Raley (.205/.319/.333, 1 HR, 0 SB) has started six straight.

• Roman Quinn (.550 OPS, 0 HR, 4 SB) has started in five of the last six games.

Royals

• Since Benintendi was traded, Kyle Isbel (.237/.282/.357, 2 HR, 5 SB) has started both games.

Twins

• The corner infield and DH situations are still murky. Jose Miranda and Byron Buxton are the only two to start all three games since Miguel Sanó (.361 OPS) came off the IL. When Buxton was the DH, Sano and Urshela sat.

Yankees

• Andrew Benintendi (.320/.387/.398, 3 HR, 4 SB) has started both games since being acquired. Matt Carpenter has sat in both of those games.

National League

Diamondbacks

• Josh Rojas (.283/.357/.422, 6 HR, 11 SB) is sitting against lefties and I’m still not sure why.

Giants

• Thairo Estrada (.265/.317/.412, 9 HR, 15 SB) has started 14 straight games.

Marlins

• Luke Williams is now starting against righties while hitting .242/.319/.323 with 1 HR and 6 SB in 69 PA this season.

• JJ Bleday (.182/.217/.409, 1 HR, 1 SB) has started in six straight games while hitting either third or fifth in the lineup.

• Lewin Díaz (.252/.323/.492 and 19 HR in 368 AAA PA) has started four straight at first base.

Mets

• Track over the weekend to see how Tyler Naquin is used.

• Daniel Vogelbach (vs RHP) and J.D. Davis (vs LHP) are in a platoon.

Nationals

• Victor Robles (.239/.300/.319, 3 HR, 12 SB) has leadoff for four straight games.

Pirates

• Cal Mitchell (.216/.254/.342, 3 HR, 1 SB) has started in eight of the last nine games.

Reds

• Just one lineup to go off after Naquin was traded to the Mets. Matt Reynolds (.264/.335/.368, 3 HR, 4 SB in 194 PA) looks to be the most likely to see more playing time.

The following nerd talk can be blamed on Ozzie Albies. Currently, he’s on the IL after needing surgery on his broken foot but plans on an August return. While digging through his stats, I was not sold on him being an early-round difference maker. Over the past two seasons, he just had a .255 AVG after it was at .279 in his first four seasons. One obvious change was that he has really started going for flyballs with his Flyball Rate (and Launch Angle (LA)) heading up.

What I wanted to know if Albies has changed his swing for more power and a lower batting average should be expected going forward.

To find the values, I had to do some manipulation of the public StatCast data. I don’t like how it’s currently being provided, so I needed to make a few adjustments.

First, instead of the 95 mph cutoff for the Hard Hit rate (used by BaseballSavant.com), I prefer 102 mph based on this Twitter thread I had with Jon Anderson.

Okay minimum exit velo at 26-30 degrees to reach .500 AVG and 1.500 SLG

2019: 98 mph
2020: 98 mph
2021: 100 mph
2022: 102 mph

— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) May 20, 2022

A batter’s swing path is the point where they create the hardest contact. The theory behind this concept can be found in these two articles. The value is a by-product of the Hard Hit query. Both of the values can be found in this BaseballSavant search.

The key with this information is to find the sweet spot of getting enough air under the ball for line drives and home runs while at the same time not popping up for some easy outs. Here are six graphs that will get us to a simple rule. If you don’t want to be overwhelmed by the graphs and numbers, feel free to jump down to the Conclusions section.

Graph and Math Stuff

For this step, I going to compare the average hitters’ Isolated Power (ISO) and BABIP using the Hard Hit% and Bat Path. I studied all non-pitchers from 2015 to the present who had 50 batted ball events in a season. I’ll start with ISO since the results are cleaner.

ISO vs HardHit% and Bat Path

First, here is a simple table of average ISO and for certain Hard Hit% and Bat Path. I tried to limit the number of empty values here.

To no one’s surprise, the higher and hard a ball is hit, the hitter’s ISO get higher

The deal is that on the right side of the table a change is starting to occur. For the weak hitters, their ISO has peaked and is heading down.

The change isn’t 100% clear, looks to start around 22 degrees.

Looking at the information another way, here is the average ISO grouped just by the Swing Path.

The ISO values peak around 20 degrees and then start declining. The key swing path for power seems to be around 20 degrees

BABIP vs HardHit% and Bat Path

Power isn’t the only factor to take into account So to start out again, here are the average BABIPs for a certain HardHit% and Bat Path.

The image is not as clean as the ISO one, but there is a range of high BABIP under 15-degrees Bat Path and over 15% Hard Hit%

Again, here is a look at the limited results from an upper cut bat path.

Again, not the prettiest image, but all the extremely low BABIP values fall in this range.

And finally, one last graph to show the average BABIP at different bat paths

While there is some curvature to the BABIP graph, it’s flatter from -5 to 20 degrees.

Conclusions

From the graphs and tables, the key to being productive is to hit the ball as hard as possible (duh) with a swing plane of 20 degrees. To get to elite levels, the Hard Hit% needs to be over 20%

Going back to Albies, here are his Hard Hit% rates and Swing Paths over the years.

The change in Swing Path obviously occurred between the 2019 and 2020 seasons. The change wasn’t as obvious since his Hard Hit% was in the low teens. When that rate dropped to 6% this season, all his results tanked. Albies swing path is fine as long as he’s hitting the ball hard.

Besides Albies, here are some other hitters with a Swing Path over 22 degrees but a sub-15% Hard Hit%.

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more of these leagues: Read the rest of this entry »

7:32	Jeff Zimmerman:

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s so tough to see who has jumped in value with a few games played. I’m guessing Sunday news and performance will matter more than ever.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Orioles

• Many of the starters will be on innings limits including Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer, and Kyle Bradish.

Hall isn’t the only starting pitcher who will be on an innings leash in the second half. The Orioles want to do the same thing with Tyler Wells and also will be watching Dean Kremer and Kyle Bradish. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hall is piggybacked with one of those guys once he is promoted.

This philosophy may change if the Orioles get closer to the wild-card race, but Elias has said repeatedly that 2022 is designed to put his inexperienced starters in a position to not have any major limitations next year. And that means nursing them along through the full season this year with a manageable workload.

Rangers

• Elier Hernandez has reworked his stance prior to his promotion.

This season, however, has been a revelation. Hernández says that — among other adjustments — he altered his stance, changing the position of his right foot. The results? A .910 OPS with just 45 strikeouts and 20 walks in 62 games.

The main difference from his 2021 and 2022 AAA stats is his strikeout rate dropping from 30% K% to 20% K%.

Tigers

• While in AAA Akil Baddoo has been working on his swing.

And it took some time for the swing to click. Baddoo worked on a number of small adjustments in Toledo. He’s holding his hands further back in his setup. He ditched a leg kick he implemented over the offseason. The Tigers wanted Baddoo to get back to his contact-oriented ways, but they also wanted him to smooth out what can sometimes be a choppy swing, too.

Twins

• The linked article goes over the various scenarios that might happen when Miguel Sanó comes off the IL. Here is one:

We’re about to see this situation come to a head in the next few days, because the 20-day window for Sanó’s minor-league rehab assignment is almost closed. Once his rehab assignment ends, the Twins will have to clear room for him on the active roster or say goodbye, via trade, waivers or outright release. I believe there’s a decent chance we’ve seen the last of Sanó in a Twins uniform.

• When Kenta Maeda returns from the IL, he will head to the bullpen.

Maeda’s comeback from elbow surgery has advanced to throwing fastballs off a mound and he recently clocked in at 85 mph, so everything is going according to plan thus far. It sounds like he’s aiming for a September return, with a relief role the most likely goal considering how much more time it would take him to build back up to a starter’s workload.

National League

Brewers

Christian Yelich will continue to have back problems.

On his back:

“Yeah, I was doing a better job of staying on the field. Obviously, I’ve had to manage this thing over the years. It’s frustrating when it pops up. We kept it in a pretty good place, stayed on it. I was just kind of getting loose, and it decided that that was enough. It just kind of tightened up, and I could feel it grab and go, and once that happens, it’s a wrap. It’s a different spot than it usually is, though, which is good. So I don’t think this one will be a long time by any means, which is good news. Not like last year.”

Padres

• MacKenzie Gore’s workload will be limited and he’ll eventually move to the bullpen.

Already this season, the Padres have managed to limit Gore’s workload to the point where he’s pitched only 68 1/3 big league innings (in addition to five in the Minors). That should line him up to be very available in the second half.
…
As such, Gore will continue as a starter after the break. But at some point, his workload will be limited. If the Padres want to make sure he’s available for the stretch run, his best path might be a relief role. Some in the organization wonder whether Gore might even become something of a late-season relief ace, with his stuff playing up in short bursts.

Phillies

• Jean Segura is hoping to come off the IL earlier than expected but not at 100%.

Segura broke his right index finger on May 31 and had surgery on June 3. The Phillies said then that he would miss 10-12 weeks. The 10-week mark is August 12, which means he is nearly five weeks into his recovery. But Segura said Wednesday that he plans to beat his original timeline and rejoin the Phils’ lineup earlier than expected.

“I’m not letting this thing go 10 to 12 weeks,” he said. “I don’t think that’s going to happen. As soon as I feel I can grip the bat and take a couple of swings …”

…

So he really thinks he could be back before 10 weeks?

“The way we look right now, probably,” Segura said. “I still have a couple of tests — gripping the ball, throwing, hitting. So if everything goes well in the next couple of weeks, we might. … I’ve been doing some aggressive therapy. Getting it moving. The more I move it, the quicker it will heal, and I’ll get mobility. When mobility is 70 to 80 percent, I think that’s enough for me to play.”