Big Kid Adds (9/13/22)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more of these leagues:

Hunter Brown (9): It’s not surprising to see Brown on this list after he shut out the Rangers over six innings with five strikeouts in his major league debut. The 24-year-old righty breezed through AAA with a 2.55 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 11.4 K/9.

In the start, he threw a fastball (52% usage), curve (29%), and slider (15%). Here are the comps.

Fastball

Curve

Slider/Cutter: My system is having problems classifying this pitch because it comps to several different pitch types. The first table is with all pitches and the second is with just sliders and cutters.

The fastball is acceptable with the curve and cutter being decent.

Josh Jung (9): He hit .273/.321/.525 with 6 HR in 106 AAA PA and now has a .900 OPS in the majors.

One major issue so far is that he has seen fastballs at only a 42% clip (49% is league average) leading to a 55% K%. He has seen 39% sliders so far with a 32% StStr% against them.

David Villar (9): The 25-year-old infielder turned it on in September hitting .303/.343/.727 with 4 HR. I’m not buying a breakout though.

He is still struggling with strikeouts (31% in Sep, 34% on the season). Also, he only has a 104 mph maxEV and an .134 xISO.

Hayden Wesneski (9): In 110 AAA IP, the 24-year-old had 3.92 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9. After eight innings, he has a 3.12 ERA, 11.4 K/9, and 0.92 WHIP. The demand for him stems from two nice matchups with Colorado in Chicago this week and  Pittsburgh next week.

He’s coming at batters with the kitchen sink throwing a slider (36%), sinker (30%), four-seamer (18%), cutter (11%), and change (6%).

Here are the comps on his three most used pitches.

Slider

Sinker

Four-seamer

His slider is near elite with his fastballs generating weak contact with groundballs (sinker) or popups (four-seamer). He’s fine to take a chance on with limited starters on the waiver wire.

Jon Gray (8): Gray was coming off the IL with a two-start week lineup up at the Marlins and Rays. Before going on the IL he had a 3.83 ERA, 10.1 K/9, and 1.17 WHIP.

Even though he was limited to 45 pitches yesterday, Gray accumulated five strikeouts and no walks over 3.2 IP.  His pitch mix was similar to his pre-injury numbers. Also, his fastball velocity was right in line with his season-long average.

Triston Casas (6): Casas finally got promoted after hitting .273/.382/.481  with 11 HR in AAA.  He’s started in six of the seven games since the call-up. He’s hitting just .095/.208/.238 in 24 PA because of a 33% K% and .083 BABIP.

Bailey Ober (6): Ober is supposed to come off the IL (groin) and face the Guardians this Saturday. He’s only been able to make seven starts this season while putting up a 4.01 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 7.8 K/9. In his last rehab start, he lasted 4.2 IP and was supposed to throw around 80 pitches.

Romy Gonzalez (6): He has been starting (10 of the last 12 games) while hitting OK (.313/.328/.453, 2 HR, 0 SB in 67 PA).

Spencer Torkelson (6): Really?? The guy who was hitting .229/.348/.389 in AAA after being demoted from the majors. Before being sent down, he had a .577 OPS, and in 31 PA this time he has a .905 OPS. The improvement stems from his strikeout rate dropping from 26% to 14%. There were no signs of lower numbers in the minors (27% K%).

Dylan Floro (5): Usage patterns over the last week point to Floro being Miami’s closer over Tanner Stott. Yesterday, Stott was used before Floro with a four run lead. On the 9th, Floro got the Save with Scott pitching in the seventh.

Tyler Naquin (5): Naquin is a nice one week because:

1. With Starling Marte on the IL, Naquin has started in five of the last six games.
2. Naquin should only start against righties (career .806 OPS vs RHP, .608 OPS vs LHP) and the Mets have six on this week’s schedule.

Ryne Nelson (5): The 24-year-old righty has thrown 13 shutout innings to start his major league career. His 9.0 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 point to him having a 3.64 xFIP. In his two starts (vs SDP and LAD), he has a .188 BABIP and has not allowed a home run.

He’s going to run a low BABIP with just a 25% GB% (36% in AAA). The surprise is with the homers. In 2021 in AA, he posted a 1.5 HR/9. In AAA this year, it’s a 1.7 HR/9.

He’s leaning on the flyball-inducing fastball 68% of the time.

It’s not a horrible fastball and can be combined with his other pitches to make him serviceable.

Jack Suwinski (5): The 23-year-old is back in the majors where he’s hit 16 HR in 298 PA. His strikeouts (30% in the majors, 38% in AAA) will always be a drag on his batting average (.206 AVG).

Wade Miley (5): He has made two second-half appearances since coming off the IL with 11 K, 3 BB, 3 ER, and 6 H in 9 IP.

While he has lost about a half tick off this fastball velocity, he’s leaning on his changeup (21% SwStr%, 78% GB%) 40% of the time.

Luis Cessa (5): He just got roughed up by the Pirates by giving up 5 ER in 5.2 IP. I started him in several spots since he had an 8.2 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, and 46% GB% as a starter. Even with the decent groundball rate, he’s allowed 2.0 HR/9 this season.