American League

Athletics

• The A’s are loaded at first base with the addition of Jesús Aguilar

For a rebuilding A’s club, Aguilar could, at the very least, provide value as a reliable stopgap at first base until No. 1 prospect Tyler Soderstrom, whose quick ascension through the system saw him finish last season with Triple-A Las Vegas, receives his promotion to Oakland, which could come as early as this season. Seth Brown, Dermis Garcia and Ryan Noda are others expected to be in the mix at first base for the A’s.

Seth Brown was already in danger of losing playing time because of his splits (career .791 OPS vs RHP, .527 OPS vs LHP) but this might cement Brown around 450 PA. Read the rest of this entry »

I started out wanting to see if a player stole more bases from one lineup slot compared to another one. Discussions around Trea Turner’s spot with the Phillies led me down this path. Last season, Turner had 603 PA from the 2nd and 3rd spot in the batting order and just 105 PA while leading off. He was on a 29 SB/600 PA pace from the leadoff spot and a pace of just 22 SB/600 PA from the other two. I wanted to see if the bump was normal and if not, what should I expect? What I found was a mess and don’t plan on regurgitating here. I put the “F- Around, Find Out” philosophy to work with over a day wasted to end up with three graphs and four actionable conclusions.

Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• There is a chance that Logan O’Hoppe might start in the minors.

The real competition appears to be between Thaiss and O’Hoppe. And the Angels have to be careful about rushing a young catcher like O’Hoppe with a very bright future.

• A lineup guess of Anthony Rendon, Luis Rengifo, and Brandon Drury being full-time bats with Gio Urshela and Jared Walsh in a platoon.

The Angels have a lot of guys that can play first, second and third. Not a lot of true shortstops. And the offseason acquisitions have most likely forced defensive whiz Andrew Velazquez off the active roster. The Angels will rotate their infield quite a bit depending on matchups. The best guess for a starting infield against a righty pitcher: Rendon (3B), Renfigo (SS), Drury (2B), Walsh (1B). And against a lefty pitcher: Rendon (3B), Rengifo (SS), Urshela (2B), Drury (1B).

It’s also possible that Angels manager Phil Nevin would value Fletcher’s defense and find a way to get him a consistent starting role, especially if his bat proves to be valuable.

Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Tigers

• Matt Vierling and Nick Maton will play all over the field according to manager A.J. Hinch.

Hinch on Thursday said new additions Matt Vierling and Nick Maton — part of the trade involving Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens going to the Phillies — will be the Tigers’ two “most active” players in spring training. That’s because both players are capable of playing both infield and outfield. Hinch will want to see both players at a variety of positions when camp begins next month.

“We’re gonna let it play out and see where the at-bats take them,” Hinch said. “I can see Vierling fitting in at a variety of positions. Maton, I’m gonna move him around, second, short, third, maybe even a little bit of outfield in the spring.”

Perhaps related: The Tigers do not currently have any player who profiles as an everyday third baseman. Maton could be the early favorite to win the job.

Read the rest of this entry »

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.

Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
• Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda
• Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, & Quintana
• Bradish, Wainwright, Soroka, & Ortiz
• Morris, Keller, Wood, & Suarez
• Waldichuck, Painter, Falter, & Wacha
• Rodriguez, Pivetta, Hall, & Germán
• Nelson, Turnbull, Martinez, & DeSclafani
• Pfaadt, Skubal, Smyly, Muller, & Cavalli
• Kluber, Irvin, Márquez, & Boyd

Read the rest of this entry »

The third base market is going to be interesting to navigate this season. It’s top-heavy with six guys going in the top-40 picks, a couple of stragglers, and then a massive cliff. Depending on where a person drafts, there might not be a way to avoid the cliff. I’m going to dive into this market and point some possible alternative ways to navigate for an acceptable solution.

Here are the third basemen (20 games min) who are in the player pool with their NFBC and FanTrax ADP. The NFBC will be based on rostering players in 5×5 Roto leagues (AVG) while most of the leagues at FanTrax are points bases (best balls). Additionally, I included an ADP-based auction value for 12-team leagues. The last column is the dollar value from our auction calculator. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• Jo Adell and Mickey Moniak are likely to start the season in the minors even though they’ve both been working hard.

“Those jobs are solidified,” Minasian said, implying that Adell and Moniak are likely to begin the season in the minors. “Those are obviously young players who are very talented that haven’t necessarily turned the corner yet that have been putting in a significant amount of work this offseason to do that,” Minasian said. “They’re both young. I think we forget about how young these two players are.”

• Griffin Canning and Chris Rodriguez should be healthy to start the season.

Minasian also provided some health updates on some other Angels, including Griffin Canning and Chris Rodriguez. Both of those pitchers missed the 2022 season entirely, with Rodriguez rehabbing from November 2021 shoulder surgery and Canning fighting lingering back issues. Both players have now begun throwing off a mound. “If both those guys are healthy entering spring training, they’ll be exciting to watch,” Minasian said. “Right now they are on schedule to be with us in spring training and we’ll see where they’re at.”

Don’t lose track of this pair. Both threw hard (maybe not now) and struck out a decent number of strikeouts (~9 K/9) while progressing through the minors. Canning will get a few more strikeouts with an elite slider (19% SwStr%) while Rodriguez will try to keep the ground balls coming (55% GB%).

Both should start in the minors but if they get promoted, prepare to roster them. Read the rest of this entry »

I ranked the top-200 non-catchers and top-50 catchers. Today, I rank hitters from 201 to 300. I don’t feel great about my ranking on the last 75 or so players. Small changes in playing time could push them up or down the rankings.

Notes:

• The rankings start with a weighted average of several available projections. From there, I moved hitters up or down based on my perceived playing time (PA) or talent (Talent)
• I had to pick one format to rank off of and I went with 5×5 Roto.
• I didn’t give any player a multi-position boost or DH hit with each hosting site having its own settings.
• Replacement level is not included since that value will change based on each league’s settings.

Read the rest of this entry »

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.

Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
• Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda
• Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, & Quintana
• Bradish, Wainwright, Soroka, & Ortiz
• Morris, Keller, Wood, & Suarez
• Waldichuck, Painter, Falter, & Wacha
• Rodriguez, Pivetta, Hall, & Germán
• Nelson, Turnbull, Martinez, & DeSclafani

Brandon Pfaadt (384 ADP)

The 24-year-old Diamondbacks prospect is getting a ton of hype coming into the 2023 season. Baseball American has him ranked as the team’s fourth-best prospect after a season where he posted a 2.63 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9 over 61 IP in the high-scoring PCL. In AA last season, his performance was worse with a 4.53 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 12.3 K/9. The jump in the ERA is from a 1.6 HR/9 and .370 BABIP. Read the rest of this entry »

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.

Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
• Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda
• Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, & Quintana
• Bradish, Wainwright, Soroka, & Ortiz
• Morris, Keller, Wood, & Suarez
• Waldichuck, Painter, Falter, & Wacha
• Rodriguez, Pivetta, Hall, & Germán
• Nelson, Turnbull, Martinez, & DeSclafani
• Pfaadt, Skubal, Smyly, Muller, & Cavalli

Corey Kluber (438 ADP)

The 36-year-old threw decent last season with a 4.34 ERA (3.85 SIERA), 1.21 WHIP, and a 7.6 K/9. After dealing with injuries for a few seasons, he was able to make 31 starts and get 10 Wins.

He’s lost quite a bit of velocity off his sinker (3% SwStr%, 39% GB%) over the past few seasons but he just threw it 25% of the time this past season.

The sinker is horrible but he’s completely backed off its usage with his cutter being his primary pitch. Now, his three non-fastballs get a decent amount of swing-and-miss.

Pitch: SwStr%, Usage
Cutter: 14%, 34%
Slider: 14%, 27%
Change: 19%, 10%

I just don’t see any upside unless he regains some velocity or completely backs off throwing the sinker. If he can stay healthy, he should be a decent part-time streamer.

Cole Irvin (448 ADP)

I feel like I’m right in the middle of the sub-par volume options. Irvin threw 181 innings of 3.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP ball with a 6.4 K/9. Even with the low strikeout rate, he had the 75th most strikeouts last season and volumed himself to the 146th best pitcher. Depending on the league’s depth, he was either a bench or waiver wire streamer.

Looking forward, the 28-year-old lefty doesn’t have much upside.

He is already not walking anyone with a 1.8 BB/9 last season and a 2.1 BB/9 during his career. His best pitch is his 91-mph four-seamer with a 12% SwStr% and a 31% GB%. Its results are better than 90% of all fastballs in the game. The swinging-strike rate on all the rest of his pitches is lower than his fastball. His change and slider were both at an 11% SwStr%.

One change he could make is to ditch his sinker (25% usage, 5% SwStr%, 42% GB%) and just go four-seam, change, and slider. If he kept their combined swinging strike rates, he would have similar results as Zack Wheeler (11% SwStr%, 2.0 BB/9) and Julio Urias (11% SwStr%, 2.1 BB/9). I doubt he’ll make such a radical adjustment, so it’ll be another boring year 180 below-average innings.

Germán Márquez (450 ADP)

There is no reason to roster any Rockies pitchers besides closers and that includes Marquez. He posted a 7.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Those stats are comparable to the two pitchers above. Marquez has the disadvantage of throwing half his starts in Colorado therefore his rate stats get pushed up (4.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) so compared to those going around, he needs to be ignored.

There is probably a point when his road starts against weak opponents come into play, but so three to four starts during the season. Marquez and his supporting cast aren’t good enough to push his value any higher. Looking over the entire NFBC, I would value him sometime after a 650 ADP.

Matthew Boyd (454 ADP)

Boyd missed most of the 2022 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He returned in September in time to make 10 relief appearances. While he posted a 1.35 ERA (1.61 BABIP) during that stretch, he did so with a 5.4 BB/9 (Zone% down from 53% before the surgery to 47%).

He was throwing his pitches about 0.5 mph harder than before and using them at about the same rate. The one except would be a sinker he threw 15% of the time. The last time he threw a sinker that much was back in 2017.

Overall, it should be a nice groundball pitch with his own 2018 sinker coming in as a comp. Maybe the sinker will help keep the home runs under control (career 1.6 HR) especially with his home fences moving in.

We’re adjusting @ComericaPark’s outfield dimensions and lowering wall heights in key areas prior to Opening Day 2023.

— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) January 11, 2023

It’s tough to know what to expect from him next season. The lack of control is concerning, but many pitchers struggle with control when returning from Tommy John surgery. I just don’t see a reason to gamble on a pitcher with a career 4.90 ERA in ~800 IP.