Author Archive: Jeff Zimmerman

I am in a 20 team league, 25 roster spots with 4 DL slots. To say the least, it is pretty deep. When looking for players on the waiver wire, availibilities max out around 2%. When I started in the league, I was one of 4 expansion teams, with the other 16 teams having 9 keeps. Basically the top 144 players were taken before I even began, along with the top prospects like Heyward and Strasburg. Going into the draft, I didn’t know how much to value prospects.

I went in with the keepers(this is pretty sad, I know):

Ryan Doumit
Jose Valverde
Shane Victorino
Chone Figgins
Javier Vazquez
Matt Capps
Chad Qualls
Tim Hudson
Jason Kubel

Here was my plan and the results:

1. I was going to get batters first.

Asdrubal Cabrera
Garrett Jones
Juan Rivera
Scott Sizemore
Travis Snider

2. Go for starting pitchers with issues last year.

Fausto Carmona
Edinson Volquez (took with last pick and moved to the DL)
Ervin Santana

3. Draft a couple of top prospects in the minors, but near the majors. I never trust pitching prospects, so I only took hitters. I wanted to get them somewhat early before there was a run. In the draft, I actually started the prospect run.

Jesus Montero
Mike Stanton

4. Find whatever else I could including any SP/RP qualified relievers because the league has only 3 RP slots and counts holds.

As a whole I am fairly happy with the results of the draft. The season hasn’t gone the best so far though, but it is early.

I am just torn setting up my daily roster that 2 player will probably not be available until later this year at the earliest. It is the whole, “I can do more to win now, but how much will it hurt me in the future.” For now I will just let the 2 sit, but was wondering how other dealt with this issue of how much a keeper’s teams roster is taken up with prospects in order to try to help the team later?

Here are some estimated return times and some additional information on a subset of players on the DL. At some point in the near future this information will be available for all players at all times here at Fangraphs. For now, I will have to provided the information via articles.

Ted Lilly – Late April
Lance Berkman – Late April return, for now. The knee keeps acting up and with the Astros off to their stellar start, the team will not rush him back
J.C. Romero – Late April – Rehabbing with A team
Brad Lidge – Late April – Rehabbing with A team
Alex Gordon – Late April
Joey Devine – Late April
Coco Crisp – Late April
Aaron Hill – Late April
Daisuke Matsuzaka – Late April – He has said he is ready to pitch
Russell Branyan – Late April – Playing for AA team, but has yet to make back-to-back starts
Joe Blanton – Late April Early May. First rehab start to be on 4/20
Ian Kinsler – Late April/Early May
Freddy Sanchez – Late April/Early May
Cliff Lee – Early May
Jimmy Rollins – Early May
Carlos Beltran – May
Kerry Wood – May
Daniel Murphy – May
J.P. Howell – May
Huston Street – May at the earliest
Chien-Ming Wang – June
Erik Bedard – June at the earliest
Edinson Volquez – June/July return at the earliest
Brandon Webb – Unknown Timetable – May at the absolute earliest
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Unknown
Joe Nathan – Out for season – Hopefully the 8% of teams that still own him in Yahoo are keeper leagues

ESPN has a nice feature that shows which players are being added and dropped in all their leagues. Here is a look at the top pitchers and hitters being added and dropped.

Hitters

Kyle Blanks (57.5% owned, +15.5% increase) – Kyle is just getting noticed in fantasy and is a great reserve OF in small leagues or decent starter in NL-only and larger leagues. He should hit 20+ home runs with around a 0.270 average.

Colby Rasmus (66.5, +14.9%) – Great upside and people seem to be picking him up. Colby also has the chance to hit 20+ home runs also.

Miguel Tejada (73.8%, +14.6%) – Though I don’t like him as a starter, there is no reason for him not to be on a bench, especially with the 3B qualification coming soon.

Alex Gordon (31.2%, -40.6%) – Alex’s trip to the DL has caused a huge sell off. Buy low here. He should be back within the month, so if you have some DL spots available, stash him there.

Corey Hart (71.1%, -12.0%) – Corey value is down because he now seems to be platooning with Jim Edmonds. Corey looks to be starting against LHP only.

Chris Young (42.0%, -6.3%) – Not sure why the sell off. Maybe there are just better and more consistent options available.

Pitchers

Matt Lindstrom (59.9%, +40.5%) – Get the closer nod of Lyons has pushed him up quickly

Francisco Liriano (96.4%, +26.9%) – Looks like Francisco should no longer be available in any league. He is not close to a sure thing, but a chance should be taken on him. Other high risk, high reward pitchers are Ben Sheets, Fausto Carmona and Ervin Santana.

Jon Rauch (87.0%, +20.6%) – Owners sucking up Joe Nathan’s replacement.

Brandon Lyon (37.9%, -53.2%) – Lindstrom is not a lights out closer yet. Lyon will put up decent rate stats and has a good chance to take over Houston’s closer role. Buy low.

Wade Davis (64.0%, -30.9%) – The drop may be from being the 5th starter and not having as many starts. Pitchers will get injured and he will get his share of starts. Buy low again.

Joba Chamberlain (33%, -12.9%) – Joba should be picked up immediately if available. Can fill in a SP slot when starter not going and provide some good rates stats. Yes, buy low again.

On the days that not all of your starting pitchers (SP) are not pitching, the SP qualified reliever can be inserted and be used to rack up some strikeouts, lower rate stats and pickup a win or save here and there. Last season, J.P. Howell fit this mold perfectly. He became even more valuable when he became the full closer for the Rays. J.P. is no longer SP eligible, but here are a few players that fit the mold. All percent owned number are from Yahoo.

Joba Chamberlain (31% owned) – Probably the best SP,RP option. The Yankees are going to score some runs, so he has a great chance for some wins.

Dustin Nippert (2%) – He has not had much luck as a starter and going to the pen should help him. As Tom Tango has noted, pitchers going to the pen have an average drop in ERA of 1 point. A projected ERA for 5.13 as a starter would be 4.13 as a closer.

Robinson Tejeda (2%) – Not a good start of the season for Mr. Tejada, but he should be respectable out of the pen. Don’t look to pitch him as starter, just out as a reliever.

Chad Gaudin (1%) – I really like Chad as a reliever and is a great option. He is in line to be a starter for the A’s if needed and if he does, look to place him on the bench.

Chan Ho Park (1%) – Another pitcher that got roughed up in his first outing. He should be able to get a few wins being the relief man when the Yankee’s starter blows up and he is pitching when the Yankee’s offense retakes the lead.

Chris Narveson (1%) – Not a great reliever, but good enough in deep and NL only leagues to steal a few wins as a RP

Nate Robertson (1%) – He is now starting, but was planned to be in pen. Don’t use him unless his role changes and he moves back to pen.

Jose Contreras (0%) – I think he could be a nice sleeper. He fits into the mold of Park, where he comes in for long relief and the Phillies offense gets going enough to get him a win. Chone is projecting a decent ERA as a reliever of 3.84.

I am sure I missed a few so let other know if anyone else stands out.

A few days ago I looked at which position players should be considered off the waiver wire. Now I will look at some pitchers that less than or equal to 50%, 40%,30%, 20% and 10% owned in Yahoo leagues:

Chris Perez (46% owned) – This is a no brainer pickup. He will be getting the save opportunities in Cleveland while Kerry Wood is on the DL as the primary closer. He may lose some saves if Kerry comes back. Since Kerry and the DL are such good friends, I bet Chris gets several chances this year to rack up some saves.

Matt Lindstrom (40% owned) – Again, a no brainer pickup, even in small leagues. If the league is only 10 teams, there is only 3 closers to go around for each team. If you have the chance to get 4 or 5 of them, you could get enough saves to complete and once ahead, trade them off to someone later that desperate to move up the save ladder.

Paul Maholm (26% owned) – A nice average pitcher that can sit on the bench as a replacement when one of your starters gets hurt (I already have a walking wounded team) . Also he can make spot starts against offensively challenged teams. His rate stats won’t kill you and the few added wins and strikeouts won’t hurt.

Jeremy Affeldt (17% owned) – He looks much improved being used out of the pen. He doesn’t look to add much for saves, but could get a few vulture wins and nicely lower your rate stats.

Brad Penny (10% owned) – Every pitcher at St. Louis that pitching coach Dave Duncan touches seems to turn to gold (remember what he did to Todd Wellemeyer). Brad looks like a nice pitcher to stash on the bench in deep and NL only leagues, see the first few results and then see if he is worth keeping.

While going through looking at DL information, I have seen some pretty decent players available. Here is a list of hitters that are less than 50%, 40%, 30%, 20% and 10% owned in Yahoo leagues.

<50% Owned: Chris Davis (47% owned) – I know Chris disappointed last season, mainly with his 0.238 batting average. His 21 home runs in 391 ABs was not horrible. Looking at his 2010 projections, they have him hitting anywhere from 0.251 to 0.285 with 21 to 30 home runs. There is a chance that he will produce in 2010 as did in 2009, but there is also a chance that he will hit 0.285 like in 2008. He is definitely worth adding to the bench and being qualified at 1B and 3B is also attractive.

< 40% Owned: David DeJesus (37% owned) – The main problem with David is he can't do any one thing good enough to get noticed. He is the epitome of the average player. Sometimes that is all you need on a team. He will hit for OK average while subbing in for players on the DL or days off. He is a nice pick up for teams ahead that can't take a chance on a player that may drag them down.

< 30% Owned: Nick Johnson (23% owned) –Nick’s real value is in his ability to take a base. In leagues with OBP as a stat, he is nice pick up. If you can handle the low batting average, he is a nice pickup in AL only or deeper leagues.

<20% Owned: Chris Iannetta (15% owned) – Chris was really supposed to break out in 2009, but disappointed. His main draw back, for a catcher, was his 0.228 batting average. I really wouldn't want to be starting him everyday, but he will make a great fill in for the days your main catcher has off.

<10% Owned: Conor Jackson (11% owned) – I have to break my rules here, but Connor was the inspiration for this article. I was looking for 1st base replacements and I saw he was at 9% owned (since has jump a bit) and I could not believe it. Last season he had Valley Fever (a 6 to 9 month cold). His skills should be near his previous levels of 0.300 BA, 10-15 Hrs, 10SB (5 in 30 games last year). With his 1B and OF eligibility, he will make a great bench sub or a starter in a deeper league.

Note: This is a repost of an article that ran on the 26th. The article got corrupted some how.

Yesterday, I looked at some pitchers that will be for sure be on the DL at the beginning of the season. Now here is a look at some hitters that might also start on the DL. All numbers are from Yahoo leagues.

Note: When filling in players for just a couple of weeks, I look for players that will not hurt my batting average and add a few counting stats in the mean time. If players have similar batting averages, look for one with home run or stolen base potential.

Russell Martin – Right Groin Pull – May look to be back by the start of the season. It looks likes right now that owners should not be worried and should only miss 2 weeks at a maximum. Some possible nice fillers for the week are John Baker (12% owned), A.J Pierzynski (53% owned) and Ramon Hernandez (4% owned).

Alex Gordon – Broken Right Thumb – It was report by the team yesterday that Alex will spend at least 2 weeks on the DL. Alex is only held in 47% of all leagues and looks to be a decent candidate to hide on the DL during until he returns. A decent replacement for Alex will be his replacement Alberto Callaspo (26% owned) and is also qualified at 2B.

Brian Roberts – Herniated Disk in Back – Brian is just beginning to test his back, but there is a good chance he will be on the DL to start the season. The backup choices in Baltimore don’t look great, so head to the waive wire for someone like Felipe Lopez (48% owned), Skip Schumaker (42%), Casey McGhee (32%) and Alberto Callaspo (26%). One other note about Roberts is that when he comes back, he might have lost some speed and may not steal as many bases he did previously.

Russell Branyan – Herniated Disk in Back – I loved Russell as a late round pick, but his back is acting up. There is a chance he will be back in a week or barely play a week all season. If Russell is your #1 first baseman, start looking for another. Some 1B that may be available Paul Konerko (50%), Chirs Davis (48% – I would get him even if you have a 1B, huge upside), Luke Scott (17%) and Connor Jackson (9% – another player with huge upside that should be on a bench). If you picked him up as a bench player, hide him on the DL.

Ian Kinsler – High Right Ankle Sprain – He started hitting off a tee on Monday, but should/could be back by opening day. Look to grab one of the guys mentioned to replace Roberts (Lopez, Schumaker, McGhee or Callaspo). Also, you may look at keeping one of the 2B as Kinsler has spent some time on the DL in each of the past 4 seasons.

Brandon Webb – Strained Ligament In Right Shoulder – Brandon is looking to come back at the end of April from his injury. Yahoo has his Average Draft Position at 162 (14th round) with names like Zambrano, Oswalt, Kuroda and Slowey being taken around him. I think this is about right for him to be drafted. If you need to take a chance to win, you may draft him a few rounds earlier to make sure he is around. If healthy, he could be one of the games best pitchers, but he has not had good luck getting this shoulder healthy. Here are some pitchers that are available that can be inserted until Brandon is healthy: Andy Pettitte (48% owned), Clay Buchholz (44%), Paul Maholm (30%) and Shawn Marcum (22% – I like putting him on bench normally and see how he performs).

Gil Meche – Stiff Lower Back – If he is available for the start of the season, I would be surprised. This back injury could continue for a while knowing Gil and his history of injuries. In the game he was removed, he didn’t make it 56 pitches until the pain set in. Once he does start a game, you may want to sit him and see how he does. If you planned on Gil’s innings, you may want to search the waiver wire now for a replacement. Look at some of the pitcher recommended under Webb.

Chien-Ming Wang – Torn Right Shoulder – Chien-Ming is currently recovering from surgery. I don’t think he can be counted on this season, even though right now he is looking to return mid-May. He is only owned in 2% of all leagues, so when he goes officially on the DL, he can be stashed away awaiting his recovery.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Tight Back – Dice-K finally debuted this last Thursday. There was no apparent problems with this outing, but it was just his first real outing and he has been known to hide injuries before. It looks like he will begin the season on the DL, but should return within a couple of weeks if everything goes fine. Stash him on the DL, find a replacement listed above and when he does come back, maybe wait a start or two to see how he is pitching.

Joe Nathan – Torn Right Elbow (Ulnar Collateral Ligament) – He had surgery this past Friday and the best return date will be opening day 2011. If you are in a non-keeper league, drop him. In a keeper league, I may stash him on DL in a AL-only or deep league. Hopefully you will be able to find a few keepers better than an injured Nathan, maybe not. For replacements, it looks like Jon Rauch will be getting the first crack at saves in Minnesota with Matt Guerrier next in line if Jon can’t cut it. Some relievers that are available that should get some saves are Chris Perez (46% owned), Matt Capps (43%) and Matt Lindstrom (31%).

This series will look at players that are officially on the disabled list and can be moved to an available DL slot.

Here are the seven people officially on the DL according to Yahoo:

Edinson Volquez – 12% owned – He’s a great candidate to put on the DL, especially in a keeper league. Even if you are not in a deep league, he should be ready by mid-summer and by then you will have a couple of other pitchers ailing.

Jordan Zimmerman – 2% owned – Pick him up. Young. Decent strikeout rate. If in a keeper league, grab him now and let him sit. He may not pitch at all in 2010, but if you have empty DL slots, use one for him.

Scott Richmond – 0% owned – He currently has an unknown timetable for returning. He may only be worth keeping in an AL-only league. Once the season starts, there should be other better candidates for the DL slots, though.

Anthony Reyes – 0% owned – No reason to pick up a 28-year-relief pitcher with a lifetime 5.12 ERA.

Dirk Hayhurst – 0% owned – Dirk should be back in May or June. Don’t let his ERA of 2.78 last year make you think is OK. He had a FIP of 4.55 in those 15 games. Pass.

Eric Hurley – 0% owned – Not sure if you want to waste your time with him. Should be back mid-May.

Well, this is my first post here at FanGraphs. This season, I will be be updating an ongoing injury data set and writing about injuries on the main and fantasy sides of the website. Also, I will write whatever else I have time for that Mr. Hulet and Mr. Cameron will allow. Let me know if there is any injury specific information that you want and I will gladly try to work on it.

One series I plan on running is a look at different injuries types, what the injury entails in simple terms and how it affects a player. So without further ado, here are some pitchers that will be on the DL due to injuries once the season begins:

Ted Lilly – Ted looks to be out until late April after having objects removed from shoulder. You might want to monitor him for a start or two when he come back, but there should be no real worries with him. Looks like a great candidate in deep and NL leagues to stick in your DL slot once he becomes DL eligible.

J.P. Howell – Looks like he is also going to be out until the end of April. Rafael Soriano will get the first crack at the closing job with Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler waiting in the wings.

Brad Lidge – Brad had a rough off-season having surgery on his knees (loose objects) and elbow (loose objects again). He is currently rehabilitating and is aiming for a April 10 return to the roster. Looks like Ryan Madson will get the first shot at the closer role in Philly in Lidge’s absence.

Cliff Lee – Cliff isn’t able to pitch yet and if you planned on him this year, you may need to find a backup for a couple weeks as he gets healthy.

Kerry Wood – At least it’s his back hurt and not his shoulder or elbow so there may be a chance he will come back this season. In his absence, grab Chris Perez. He has the closer role for now and should eventually take it over. After all, it’s not like Kerry isn’t going to go on the DL a couple more times this year.

Erik Bedard – Erik Bedard on the DL? You may be as surprised as I am. Looks like right now he is aiming for a June return. If you have a free DL slot you might want to stick him there (once he become eligible) and wait, but if a little more reliable player needs the slot, drop Bedard, as there is a chance he may never pitch this season.