Today, I am going to look at some players that are on the DL and being dropped at a high rate (all numbers are from ESPN).

Angel Pagan (oblique) – 51.0% owned, down 45.5% – Owners are dumping Pagan at a pretty alarming rate. Owners know they aren’t paying for power with him, they are hoping for a player that steals a few bases (4 in 2011) and hits for decent average. The average has been a disaster this year at 0.159, which is being fueled by his 0.164 BABIP. Normally his BABIP is around 0.300, so the batting average should improve substantially. He has been moved around the lineup quite a bit, mainly hitting in the 2nd, 5th or 6th spots. He will have chances to score and drive in a few runs. He is expected to be back from the DL after his 15 days are up on April 30th. He looks to be a perfect player for a team needing SB or AVG help.

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Last week I looked at a few 2B that were getting more playing time than expected when the season began. I have continue on this week looking at 3 more 2B that weren’t expected to have much of an impact this season.

Jonathan Herrera: 39 PA/0.359 AVG/1 HR/4 SB – 36% owned – The 26 year old Herrera has been a pleasant surprise this season for the Rockies. Even though he didn’t start the season at 2nd base, he has only been benched twice since starting in game six and has taken advantage of the situation.

He currently has a slash line of 0.359/0.510/0.513. Along with getting on base half the time, he is showing some of his speed by swiping 4 SBs so far this season. Also, he is a nice source of runs, 10 in just 12 games played. The amount of runs scored should not really be a surprise for someone getting on base 1/2 of the time and has CarGo, Tulo and Helton hitting after him.

There is no way that he is going to continue to get on base at his current clip, but if he ends up batting 0.300, with 100 runs and 20 SBs, he may just be one of the top fantasy steals of the year.

Jayson Nix: 42 PA/0.238 AVG/2 HR/3 SB – 3% owned – Nix is qualified at second base, but is getting all his playing time this season at 3B. He is doing OK. The 28 year old currently has a slash line of 0.238/0.360/0.429 to go along with 2 home runs and 3 stolen bases. His 0.238 may look low, but it is actually a career high for him which is being helped by a career high BABIP of 0.308.

His major problem has been that he has struck every third time he come to the plate. He may regress a bit to his lifetime rate of striking out 1/4th of the time. His walk rate of 16% has help his baseball value, but for fantasy leagues that use AVG, those walks are of no help. Toronto has now placed him at the bottom of the lineup in 6 of the last 8 games, so he will have less at bats and chances to score or drive in runs.

Right now Nix looks like an replacement level option at 2nd base in deep or AL only leagues.

Chris Getz: 57 PA/0.263 AVG/0 HR/2 SB – 2% owned – Getz has started all but 2 games at 2nd base for the Royals this season. Getz is mainly known for his defense and that is why he has been playing quite a bit. He has little fantasy value though. He will probably hit around 0.260 and generate no home runs. He does steal a few bases and since he is usually in the 1st or 2nd spot in the lineup, he may score a few runs this season.

Another problem is that his playing time is not assured. The Royals right now have Getz, Aviles and Betemit swapping between 2nd and 3rd base. Getz started the season hot compared to Aviles, so he has gotten more playing time recently. Getz has sense cooled off, so Aviles may be seeing more time at second. Betemit and his 1.010 OPS looks entrenched at 3B for now. This situation becomes even more jumbled once the Royals call up top prospect Mike Moustakas to play 3B.

Right now Getz is a possible option at 2nd base in deep or AL only leagues for owners that are needing some SB help.

Franklin Gutierrez – 22.5% owned – Stomach Virus – Franklin was scratched from a AAA start on Friday for more tests on his stomach. The cause of the ailments has not been found and the effects seem to show up every few days. If/when he returns seems up in the air. The one aspect to remember is that he may get back to the Mariners rather quickly once the cause of the discomfort has been found. I really don’t blame anyone for not picking him up due to the unknown nature of the injury, but once he gets it resolved, I see him getting back to the majors rapidly.

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This season has been going on for 2 whole weeks and it is time to try to take advantage of some irritable owners and small sample sizes. A great way to do this is try to pick up some extremely low valued hitters that have a low BABIP value in exchange for players with high BABIP values. BABIP will be a major factor in determining a player batting average, RBIs and runs.

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At the beginning of the season, the authors here at Fangraphs created a preseason composite ranking of 2nd basemen. Since then several 2B, not included at all on the original list, have emerged as fantasy options and here is a look at a few of them.

Owned % is from Yahoo
Stats are AB/AVG/HR/SB

Angel Sanchez – 15% owned – 43/0.395/1/1 – Sanchez stepped in once Clint Barmes (hand) went on the DL. He has been a nice spark for the Astros, but his production will not continue at this clip. First, Angel has never hit over 0.305 in the minors or the majors. Also, his 0.444 BABIP can not be maintained. Finally he is not a SB (20 total in the last five years) or HR (12 in the same 5 years) threat. I could see the Astros continue to play the hot hand when Barmes returns, but I fully expect him to be a backup soon.

Orlando Cabrera – 28% owned – 39/0.333/1/0 – Orlando has moved to 2B in Cleveland and help solidify the the position for the Indians. Most of his current value is from his 0.333 average. The high average is being fueled by a 0.353 BABIP. His previous highest BABIP was 0.319 in 2007, so I expect this season’s value to regress some. He used to be a decent source of stolen bases, but that number has steadily declined since 2006 (27 to 20 to 19 to 13 to 11). Also, he hasn’t hit over 10 home runs since 2005. Orlando isn’t going to win an owner any leagues by himself, but with his versatility in playing both the 2B and SS position, he could be a nice injury plugin.

Jose Lopez – 14% owned – 29/0.241/2/1 – The season started good for Lopez when he got the first 5 starts of the season at 2B. Since them Jonathan Herrera has gotten the rest of the starts at 2B (4). In two of those starts Lopez did get the start at 3B. Playing time for him is just not assured at this point in Colorado.

Lopez seems to have gotten some of his power back that he lost last season. He is currently 2nd on the Rockies with 2 home runs behind Toluwitzki who has 4. He could be a nice source of power if he can continue to get plenty of playing time. Also owners can probably expect his 0.241 AVG to rise as he currently has a BABIP of just 0.208

Cody Ross (calf) – 4.1% owned (ESPN) – Currently, it looks like Ross is not going to be back in the lineup for 2 more weeks. He seems to be recovering fine, but the real story here is who will be the odd man out once he returns to the Giants. Right now Torres (currently with a Achilles’ tendon issue that looks to have him out a week), Huff and Burrell are manning the outfield positions in San Francisco with Belt at first base. One of these 4 players or Ross will have to sit on the bench once he returns.

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In last week’s article on 2B, I discussed briefly a method I use for ranking players by talent. This week I will show the method along and the rankings. I loosely based this method on the the Mayberry Method introduced in the 2010 Baseball Forecaster. The Mayberry Method looks at the player’s talent and expected playing time to give them a fantasy value. I stripped the analysis down further to just look at the player’s talent.

Here is the method that is used. The original Mayberry Method looked at a hitter’s projected AVG, HR, SB and PA and ranked each player according to a formula. To get the player’s hitting ability, I stripped plate appearances from the equation because a player has no control over plattoons, batting order and talent around them. Also plate appearances directly effect the number of Runs and RBI’s the player will generate in a season.

Besides stripping out PA, I didn’t want HR and AVG to be given the same weight as SB. I feel that HR and AVG should be weighted more as each contributes directly to RBIs and Runs. So I weighted AVG and HR twice that of SB. Next, I converted HRs and SBs into rate stats, HR/PA and SB/PA.

Finally I took the 5 categories and plugged them into our own Zach Sander’s formula for finding fantasy above replacement values. For the values, I went with a Wisdom of the Crowds approach and used a weighted average of 4 different projection systems.

After following the above method, here are the pre-season rankings I came up with:

When compared to the list that we put out at the beginning of the year, here are a couple interesting tidbits.

– Using this method for ranking players, Aaron Hill and Dan Uggla are nearly the same player, all HR, no SB or AVG. Uggla is being drafted about 70 spots earlier in the drafts compared to Hill, mainly based on increased opportunites to drive in and score runs.
– Eric Young, Jr. looks to be a fairly productive fantasy player based mainly entirely on his SB, but may not be given a chance to start since his teammate Jose Lopez is entrenched at 2B.

This method by itself should not be used to fully evaluate players in fantasy baseball because it doesn’t take into account playing time. Increased playing time allows a player to accumulate more of the 4 counting stats normally used for hitters. It is though a good method to find talented players not playing everyday and if they are given the opportunity to shine, they could out produce other players.

Matt Holliday needed an appendectomy on April 1st. Originally it was reported that he was to be out about 4-6 weeks. Since then the time table has been moved up, even to the point that Matt has not even been place on the DL yet. I decided to go back and look historically at players that had their appendix removed, see how long they were off and did their performance change after the operation.

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This season I am looking at players that are currently on the DL, but are expected to come off of it soon. I am not going to look at any players owned in over 50% of all leagues, instead I want to focus on players that might be available in most leagues. These players should be picked up soon because they look to be coming off the DL within a month or so.

All owned rates are from ESPN

Domonic Brown (2.7% owned) – Wrist – Dominic’s return to the Phillies looks to be in late April right now. He entered the season with high expectations, but his wrist injury set him back. Of the players I am looking at today, he has the most upside, dominate power source, and the most downside, might not even play in the majors depending on how the other outfielders are doing in Philly. Another concern with me is his wrist injury. He may not have as much power as it usually takes a year to fully heal from a wrist injury.

Casey Blake (1.5% owned) – Ribs/Back – At age 37, he is not going to be a stud on your team. In deep or NL only leagues though, he may be a reasonable option at 3B, especially if you are needing a little power. Also, he may be platooned with another mediocre to below average 3B and used to facilitate better match ups. His exact time table for return is unknown, but he was originally trying to be ready by opening day.

Joel Pineiro (21.3% owned) – Shoulder – Joel is being dumped in many leagues (-15.6%), but looks to only miss a week to start the season. He should be a reliable starter once he is back healthy. The only big knock will be his shoulder. Shoulder problems just seem to keep coming back. Also, it is not generally a good idea to start an injured pitcher the first game back from the DL in case the injury is not healed, instead wait for him to get back into a grove.

Jon Garland (5.5% owned) – Oblique – Jon’s return is a little less for certain, but he is looking to be back in the rotation within the month. He may not put up great stats, but the home games in spacious Dodger’s stadium never hurt.

Chase Utley

I was a huge fan of Utley coming into the 2011 season. He had all of the off season to get his thumb healed. Generally it takes around a year for a player to get back to around 100% after a lower arm injury and it was getting close to being a year later. Then he went and got a bum knee. Reports currently vary from 4 to 12 weeks for the injury to heal, so when/if he comes back is uncertain. I drafted him in way too many leagues before the injury was known, so I will be keeping a eye on his progress and let you know of any updates.

Neither of Chase’s replacements, Luis Castillo or Wilson Valdez, will breed fear into the hearts of your enemies, but may be worth picking up in some deeper or NL only leagues.

Some interesting 2B that are owned in less than 10% of all league (ESPN or Yahoo).

Reid Brignac (5% ESPN) 2B/SS eligible – Reid is barely owned, but could be a nice backup middle infielder if one of your players goes down with an injury. Also, he could be a nice infield sub if one of your other middle infielders has the day off.

Dustin Ackley (1.3% ESPN) – Dustin looks to start the year in the minors, but may be called up in late May or early June (to avoid Super 2 status). It is time now to pick him up, especially in keeper leagues and wait for him to be called up. An owner can take a chance and try to get him right before the call up, but ownership rates will begin creeping up a few weeks before then, so don’t take a chance and miss him.

2B On the Move

One trick to see how players are falling and gaining in popularity is to rank them by ADP in ESPN and then look at the percentage owned. Usually, and especially at the beginning of the season, the two normally match up perfectly. When doing the comparison with 2nd basemen, only one player is out of order and that is Omar Infante.

ESPN shows that his ownership is up 6.4% to 80%. Two reasons look to be fueling this move up. One, he is a super sub with position eligibility at 2B, 3B and OF. Second, he could be a decent source of runs as he looks to be batting 2nd for Florida just ahead of Ramirez and Stanton.