Today I am going to steal a column idea and talk about everyone’s least favorite subject, my fantasy team. I am going to look at the options I have in the playoffs for a team decimated by injuries. For the two people still reading, hang in for a ride of self pity.
In September, teams are able to bring up any player to the majors that is on the 40 man roster. When a player gets hurt, a team has no incentive to put the player on the DL to open up a spot. Because teams are ignoring the DL, it is hard knowing exactly which players are not going to play and for how long.
The most important aspect that fantasy owners face is that the non-playing, hurt players can’t be moved to a DL slot without the DL designation. Teams in keeper leagues will be forced to keep these players on their active roster therefore denying an extra usable bench player on a fantasy roster.
Chris Carpenter – Carpenter has begun throwing a few pitches to see if he can possibly make a start before the end of the season. He has a small chance of returning after being out for the entire season.
The Cardinal hurler had a great 2011 season and helped the Cardinals win the World Series. He began the season with shoulder pain and eventually had surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (I am not sure exactly what it is, but it sounds bad) on July 19th. Initially, it was reported that he was not going to return this season, but signs are starting to point to a return.
Yesterday, Fielding Dependent Pitching was release here at FanGraphs which is used to compare FIP-WAR and R/9-WAR. While WAR and its components sometimes have little affect on fantasy baseball, I have found the LOB-WAR to be useful for finding pitchers who may consistently have their ERA out perform their FIP value.
To get an idea of what traits these pitchers have in common, I looked at the top 10 pitchers (*) in LOB-Wins for 2012. Each of these pitchers had an ERA less than their FIP with the average difference being -0.70. Initial reaction may be that the pitchers crank it up a notch and get more strikeouts, which is not the case. Here are the average strikeout and walk numbers for the group.
| Split | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | K% | BB% |
| Bases Empty | 7.4 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 19% | 5% |
| Men on Base | 5.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 17% | 8% |
| Men In Scoring | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 18% | 10% |
On Saturday, Brandon Morrow made his return to the Blue Jays rotation. He allowed 4 runs (2 earned) to go with 7 Ks and 1 BB over 4 2/3 innings. It was Morrow’s first start since June 11th when he strained his left oblique. All signs are positive and I see only a couple of possible future problems for him.
Morrow was having a good season before landing on the DL, but it is a little tough to gauge his true talent level. He has a near 3 ERA which is a career best for him (4.37 average for his previous seasons). His strikeout rate is down to a career low of 8 K/9. The drop in strikeouts is offset by his BB/9 going down to 2.7, which is also a career low.
Over the last two seasons, Johnny Cueto’s ERA (2.38) has been lower than any other pitcher in the majors. His ERA is about one full point lower than his FIP (3.24) and xFIP (3.75). I will look at how he achieved the low ERA and if it can be maintained.
Last night, Jeremy Guthrie flirted with a no-hitter for 7 innings until he gave up a infield single to “speedy” Paul Korerko. Besides flirting with a no-hitter, he had gone 22 straight innings without giving up a run which ended a few batters later. This performance was from a pitcher who was traded away basically as a salary dump. Are there any signs that can lead a fantasy owner to believe that Guthrie has changed in his approach over the last month and the improvement can continue?
Josh Reddick is having an outstanding first season with the A’s after previously playing for Boston. The 25-year-old left handed hitter has an unexpected 25 HRs this season to go with a .253/.325/.500 triple slash line. Did Reddick change much from his time Boston? Was there some possible signs that Reddick had a chance to break out this season?
The main factor affecting his fantasy value in Boston was his playing time. Over 3 MLB season he had only 403 PA’s and hit .248/.290/.416 with 10 HRs (0.025 HR/PA). Not exactly numbers that will win a fantasy title.
Last night, Evan Longoria returned to the Rays after missing 85 games with a torn hamstring. He was the DH and went 1 for 3 with an RBI. For some fantasy owners his return may be too late to really help them (#raiseshand). For others, he may provide a much needed boost. Besides being one of the top 3B options, his return has implications on other Tampa Bay players.
Dan Straily – Dan started for the A’s this past Friday going 6 innings, striking out 5 and only walking 1 batter. It was the 23 year-old’s first MLB start after dominating the minors this past year. While it was just one start, there are some encouraging data from the right-hander.
* In the AA and AAA this season, he averaged 11.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. While these numbers will not be as good in the majors, some decent results should be expected from him.