This is a weekly series on players I have selectively watched while exercising. Usually, I will concentrate on lesser known players or rookies just getting their first call ups.

Kevin Gausman

Why I watched: A highly touted prospect.

Game Watched: 9/1/14 vs Twins

Game Thoughts

• His fastball is elite. He normally throws it around 94-95 mph, but can change speeds to launch it up to 97 mph. It sometimes has some release side run which makes it about unhittable. For a 4-seam fastball, it gets a good number of groundballs (43% on the season) mainly because he pitches low in the zone.

• Well, that is about it for good news. His other pitches, a change/splitter and slider, are horrible. He couldn’t throw either for strikes and they just don’t have good movement. His change/splitter gets a bit of swing-and-miss because everyone seems gearing up for his fastball which he throws almost all the time. He throws his fastball 72% of the time which is good for the 8th most in the league (min 80 IP).

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The Royals recently promoted 2014 draftee Brandon Finnegan to the majors to be a lefty out of the bullpen. So far the 21-year-old has thrown just a couple of relief innings. What I wanted to do is push the limits to discover what type of pitcher Mr. Finnegan may be in the future given this small sample of information. Today, I am concentrating just on his fastball.

Eno has been doing quite a bit of pitch benchmarks and I helped him out with some values. After using these values for a few months, I noticed heavy flyball pitchers like Chris Young and Danny Duffy had vertical movements, as defined be Pitchf/x, near or above 10. On the other end of the spectrum, ground ball pitchers, like Justin Masterson, had a vertical component near or below zero. By knowing the amount of downward break on fastball, I hope to get a range on their ground ball rate (GB%).

Additionally, a fastball is thrown fast with the hope to induce some swing-and-miss. So, additionally I looked to find the average swinging strike rate (SwStr%) just by knowing a pitcher’s velocity. Since velocity stabilizes quickly, just a few pitches will give us an idea of the pitcher speed and hopefully the average amount of swing-and-miss from their fastball.

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• Reminder, the first table of players are ones who aren’t on the DL, but should be.

• The Phillies say Cliff Lee should be ready for the start of spring training.

Amaro was asked to rate his confidence level that Lee will be ready to contribute next season.

“High,” he said.

Lee was seen by top orthopedists James Andrews and David Altchek. Both agreed that the pitcher has a strain that can heal with rest and rehab. Lee was treated with a platelet-rich plasma injection and will begin throwing in November. If all goes well, he should be ready for Day 1 of spring training.

Or he may not be. I would at least ding Lee a couple weeks of production on next year’s production.

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• Just a reminder, I have an unofficial DL list near the article’s end. Some of the players, Gomez and Jaso, look like they may pinch hit a small bit, but they will miss a considerable amount of time.

• Miguel Cabrera has been dealing with bone spurs in his ankle. He may have surgery on his ankle after his season is over.

The right ankle injury that has hobbled Miguel Cabrera for the better part of the last month could well lead to a second consecutive off season surgery. Cabrera is dealing with at least one bone spur in his right ankle, which could require surgery to correct.
…..
“We don’t know if he requires surgery,” manager Brad Ausmus said after Sunday’s 6-1 win over the Giants. “We don’t know if it’s going to be [healed by] rest, or if surgery would help, and that’ll be determined when the season’s over.
…
The normal timetable for recovery from an ankle surgery to remove spurs, according to injury expert and national sports medicine writer Will Carroll, is four to six weeks. It’s obviously not as severe as core muscle surgery, but with Cabrera’s body frame, explosive swing and the weight put on his ankles, full recovery is crucial.

The signs (power and contact down) pointed to a problem during the season. I expected his core to still be an issue, but I guess it is bone spurs. It will be interesting to see where he gets valued in 2015 after two injury seasons in a row.

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Just a couple of pitchers this week. Between an extended Labor Day weekend and a computer crash, I could only view two guys.

Kyle Hendricks

Why I watched: A rookie with a 1.91 ERA who doesn’t throw over 90 mph

Game Watched: 8/29 vs Cardinals

Game Thoughts
• Man he throws slow. He has one huge set of balls to keep throwing his fastball in their, which he does with confidence. His sinker was 86-87 in the game I watched. He just isn’t going to strikeout many batters as seen by his 15% K%.

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Well, I just got done with the second most time consuming MASH report of the year when it seems everyone moves off the DL or onto the 60-day DL when the rosters expanded. I hope I got it all. Additionally, I have added a third table for players who will miss significant time, but are not on the DL.

• Carlos Beltran will have elbow surgery at the season’s end to remove some bone spurs in his elbow. Beltran may be a player I target in 2015. His value may be so low that he has the potential to generate surplus value like Victor Martinez did in 2014.

• The D-backs Archie Bradley is finally healthy and available to pitch in the Double-A playoffs.

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I am planning on publishing this piece on a weekly basis. I’ll be looking at a few interesting players. I try to work out for 30-45 minutes a day, so I will just watch a different player each time and give my thoughts on their game at the end of the week. This will not be a complete breakdown of the player, just what I saw. Also, I will probably be looking at average to below-average players to see if anything sticks out with them.

David Buchanan

Why I watched: I noticed him while looking for pitcher with big curveballs. Looking at little deeper and found this:

Month:K%-BB%,GB%
May:4%,42%
Jun:9%,49%
Jul:12%,46%
Aug:10%,55%

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• Heads up, the DL list is basically going to become a moot point in a few days when the rosters expand. Teams have no incentive to put a player on the DL unless it is to the 60-day DL to make room on their 40-man roster. I am going to have an unofficial DL list in the MASH Reports until the season’s end so people can know which players will or won’t be available.

Also, read up on players coming off the DL in September. Many will return without being 100%. John Mayberry is one such example. The Phils pretty much say he is still hurt and they don’t know where he will fit into their outfield.

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A few days ago I released a way too early set of hitter projection values. Today, it is the pitchers’ turn. Truthfully, I wasn’t 100% sure I would release them. It requires a person using them to use their brain somewhat. I decided to go ahead and release and hope most people read a few lines of the article to understand how the spreadsheet is set up.

Notes on the data (PLEASE READ)

• I averaged the rest of season Steamer and/or ZIPS projections. Sometimes only one or the other was available so only one was used at times. The rest of season the projections are a good attempt at getting the player’s talent level right now. The values are close to the 2015 projection with the exception of the September numbers.

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• Jeff Passen looks at the playoff contenders and how the health of their pitching staffs have helped with their 2014 playoff runs.

Of the top 10 in each category, opening-day-rotation starts have more playoff teams than starters’ ERA or team ERA. Seven of the teams with most starts from opening day rotations would make the playoffs if the season ended today, whereas only six of the top 10 in starters’ ERA and team ERA would get to the postseason. And the three non-playoff teams on the healthy list include Detroit (one game back of the second AL wild card), Atlanta (one game behind for the second NL wild card) and Cincinnati (every theory needs an outlier).

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