Coming into 2014, the question wasn’t if Billy Hamilton was going to steal a bunch of bases, the question was how many. I had my doubts he could hit well enough to stay in the lineup. He hit better than I expected and racked up 38 first half stolen bases. Then his production dropped off hard. The number of stolen bases fell to 18 in the second half. While 56 stolen base is nothing to sneer at, people see the possibility of 75+ stolen bases. Will the second half decline continue into 2015?

Hamilton’s 2014 season can be broken down into the two distinct halves.

Half: AVG/OBP/SLG, BB%, K%, SB(SB%),
1H: .285/.319/.423, 5%, 18%, 38 (72%)
2H: .200/.254/.257, 7%, 21%, 18 (69%)

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Tyler Matzek

Why I watched: Rookie in Colorado

Game(s) Watched: 9/10/14 vs Mets

Game Thoughts

• The left-hander’s straight fastball was between 88 and 94 mph. It gets an outstanding 50% GB%, but doesn’t have a ton of noticeable downward break.

• He also threw an 83 mph slider which broke in the 10-4 direction. It was a plus pitch when he commanded it. A few times it barely broke, if at all. Hanging breaking balls usually go for home runs. The pitch is a killer on lefties. Overall, he is posted a 2.22 FIP against lefties and 4.35 against righties.

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I made a decision while trying to win a championship last season which I didn’t regret at the time, but now must deal with. I traded for Brad Miller. I didn’t want him. He was a throw in for a trade with bigger pieces, but he has a long guaranteed contract the other owner gave him. Coming into 2014, he looked to be a good middle infield option with both second base and shortstop eligibility. Now, he just gives his 2014 owners nightmarish flashbacks. It is not even clear if he will play much in 2015. I am going to see if there is any possible chance for non-dead cat bounce or if he belongs on the floor.

Generally, he was the same player in several categories:

Stat: 2013, 2014
ISO: .154, .144
HR/FB: 10%, 10%
BB%: 7%, 8%
SB: 5, 4

Power, speed and walks seemed fine.

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• I have one must read and it was just published a couple of hours ago by Sam Fuld on dealing with a brain damage concussions.

Traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) are similar to other injuries in that they require time and rest in order to improve. That lost time is why most athletes drive ourselves crazy when deciding whether or not to keep our injuries quiet. What happens if we miss some action and our replacement from Triple-A plays great? What about the dreaded label of being “injury prone?!?!” Whether you’re an All-Star, a fringe major leaguer or a young minor leaguer, nobody wants an organization to think you’re an injury risk.

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David Hale

Why I watched: Picked up some early and late starts with OK numbers.

Game(s) Watched: 9/25/14 vs Pirates

Game Thoughts

• The 26-year-old right hander threw two fastballs, a two- and four-seamer. Starting with the 90-92 mph four-seamer. It is fairly straight pitch with a bit of glove side run. It is about the only pitch he can throw for strikes. Here are his 2014 Zone% values :

Pitch: Zone%
Four season: 57%
Two seam: 40%
Curve/Slider: 27%
Change: 34%

If he needs to throw a strike, it’s only the four-seamer. Some hitters seemed to be looking for it when they are ahead in count since his other pitches rarely go for strikes. While I didn’t notice it during the game, it does get an insane amount of goundballs (51% during the season).

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Josh Harrison was not on anyone’s radar going into last season, yet alone ending up as a top 10 third baseman. The right-hander is now known after hitting .315 with 13 home runs and 18 stolen bases. So what are the chances of him coming close to a repeat season or even showing some improvement?

To say Harrison was not well reguarded coming into his season and any time in the past is an understatement. Here are some of his FG+ reports from the last three seasons

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Generally, everyone expected Robinson Cano home runs, runs batted in and runs scored to be down in 2014 compared to 2013 as he went from the Yankees to the Mariners. The Runs (81 to 77) were about the same and the RBIs dropped a good amount (107 to 82), but it was the home runs which did owners in. They nearly halved going from 27 in 2013 to 14 in 2014. Today, I am going to look at the decline’s  cause and if there is any hope for 2015.

The first key is to see how many home runs Cano lost moving from Yankee Stadium to Safeco Field. Using Inside Edge data*,  I estimated his HRs in 2012 and 2013 if he played half his games in Safeco and half at a league average field. This value would give an estimate on how much his home run total would go down. He hit 60 for the combined two seasons and the estimated home run total was 54.0. On average, he would be down three home runs per season if he was a Mariner those two years. If we move to his 2014 home runs, he would be estimated to hit 14.4 HR. He wasn’t exactly unlucky this past season, he hit almost as many home runs as he deserved.

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Paul Goldschmidt was having a great season until he got hit by a pitch and broke his wrist in August. He was hitting home runs, had an .300 AVG and was still getting some steals (nine). It was just another All-Star caliber season until the broke wrist ended his season.

The main issue with him going into 2015  will be if his wrist is still bothering him. To see how player’s performed after wrist issues, I looked at hitter production the season before, of, and after a similar wrist injury.

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Last week, I examined rookie pitchers Daniel Norris and Rafael Montero for my weekly Quick Looks piece. With both pitchers, they had several pitches which just got away from them. There was no way a hitter was going even think about swinging at them. These pitches put the pitcher constantly behind in the count. While I could use Zone% to determine the amount pitches in or out of the strike zone, I wanted to look a little further out of the zone to find pitches not even close to the strike zone and I ended up with, Way Out of the Zone Percentage (WOOZ%).

I have wanted to look into this subject for while after hearing Brian Bannister mention something in a Baseball Prospectus podcast. He said some pitchers can have problems with their grips as they transition from the higher seamed minor league baseball to the lower seamed MLB baseball. Specifically, he noted it hurt pitchers who throw four-seam fastballs and curve balls. Since starting Quick Looks, which concentrates on young, new pitchers, I have seen a ton of pitches not near the zone which may be caused by not having a good grip. I needed to find and solution and for now it is WOOZ%.

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• Jon Roegele at The Hardball Times examined the recovery success rates for Tommy John surgeries. Here are a couple of the major points.

To summarize, this examination of Tommy John surgery has shown that while the overall success rate has not seemingly improved over time, in recent years players have been able to get back on the field in the same league faster than they did when the surgery was less common.

And

As far as attrition goes, there is naturally a downward trend for return rates as players age. Comparing Tommy John survivors to all major league pitchers (injured and non-injured, in the last column) shows that recovering from the surgery tends to occur at around the same rate as typical pitchers manage to stay in the league for a given age range. Some age bands are better, some worse, but with sample sizes this small for Tommy John patients it is hard to make a definitive statement in this regard.

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