Stephen Vogt was a nice sleeper coming into 2015, especially since the Athletics stated they were going to use him as a regular catcher. He quickly got catcher eligibility in mid-April and his value jump some. His value skyrocketed in early May when he hit 5 home runs in nine days and was producing at a league leading level. This production didn’t continue and he saw quite a bit of drop off over the season’s second half. Going into 2016, Vogt’s projected production should probably be about the same as his overall 2015 production.

The 30-year-olf Vogt came into the season as a catcher play in deeper leagues without much major league experience. He seemed to perform decently in 287 PA in 2014 with 9 HR and a .279 AVG. He was mainly a platoon option but was looking at more playing time between catching and playing first base. Here are David Wiers preseason thoughts on Vogt.

Best used as a platoon player against right-handed pitchers, Vogt does offer value in that role. Don’t make the mistake of simply extrapolating and nearly doubling his 2014 counting production, but Vogt could be a sneaky pickup late in the draft or off of the waiver wire.

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This past season may end up going down as the year of the prospect. So many good rookies got their promotion to the majors like Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Noah Syndergaard, and Lance McCullers. It is time to look at finding the next batch of rookies. By using just a handful of minor league stats, I have created basic prospect rankings for 2016.

I have played around with prospect rankings for a while and just recently publish my 2015 ZOBRIST rankings which looked at older potential hitter breakouts. I have had some personal player rankings using just the player’s stats, but nothing worth publishing. Well, I finally took the few step forward by stealing some ideas from a couple of my fellow writers. First, I was able to add position values to the rankings after helping Carson Cistulli work on his minor league WAR values. The final piece came after reading a recent article by Tony Blengino at ESPN where he gives credit to the player’s age compared to the level’s average age.

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I will continue to implement player grading on the scouting scales of 20-80. I will use Kiley McDaniels scale he discussed in this article.

I will give a value for where I think the pitcher could currently fit in on the average team (CV=current value) and where they could end up (FV=future value). I am sure I will disagree with some grades from others, but I am only looking at one game.

Note: If I say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.

Tyler Duffey (CV: 50/FV: 60+)
9/20/15 vs Angels

Game Thoughts
• On the surface, the 24-year-old righty looked to have just two pitches, fastball and curveball, but his manipulation of these two make him tougher to figure out.
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• I am really light on content today, but I am going to stick to my plan of publishing every Thursday no matter the news.

• Ruben Tejada is expected to be ready by spring training after having his leg broke.

The Mets announced Monday afternoon that infielder Ruben Tejada, injured on a slide into second base by the Dodgers’ Chase Utley in NLDS Game 2, won’t need surgery to fix the non-displaced fractured fibula in his right leg.

CBS MLB Insider Jon Heyman reports that Tejada instead will spend 6-8 weeks in a cast, and be ready for spring training in February.

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In a runaway win, the player with the most value from a single tool easily goes to Billy Hamilton and his 57 SB. He was completely useless otherwise for his fantasy owners with a .226 AVG (.274 OBP), 56 Runs, 28 RBI, and 4 HR in 114 games. Even with those horrible numbers, he ended up 88th (~7th rounder) in ESPN’s Player Rater ahead of Robinson Cano, Jason Kipnis, and Alex Rodriguez. Those 57 SB are gold though with teams now running less and less.

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• I completed going through the DL instances and looked for players who will likely be on the DL to start the 2016 season. If the return dates are March then April, there is a good chance the player will come back healthy, but they are close to being 100% yet. I am taking the conservative route and want to see them playing before I remove them from the list.

• Carlos Santana played through the 2015 season with a bad back.

Not once this season did Carlos Santana mention to reporters that he was bothered by a back issue that was plaguing his offensive production. A few hours before the Indians’ final game of the year on Sunday, the first baseman admitted that the ailment was a persistent problem.
…
Heading into Sunday’s action, Santana was sporting a .232/.358/.397 slash line to go along with 19 homers, 29 doubles, 72 runs, 85 RBIs and 107 walks. His overall showing was not far off his production from last year, though his home run total (27 in 2014) and slugging percentage (.427 in ’14) took a hit.

Historically, back injuries don’t linger too much into the next season. Since he is now only 1B eligible, his 2016 value is minimal.

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Well, it is that time when we look back to see how bad were our 2015 BOLD preseason predictions. Let me see if I can improve on last year’s three for 10 results.

Note: I will use the rating from ESPN and Yahoo! to determine the player’s ranking.

1. Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw will not be the #1 ranked fantasy player for 2015.
Well, I started out fine. Kershaw came close by being the 3rd overall pitcher with Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke ahead of him. Kershaw was his normal self, but Greinke and Arrieta had career seasons. Trout was a little further down the hitter rankings at #7. His biggest issue was an injured wrist which limited his production.

1 for 1

2. Pedro Alvarez will lead the National League in home runs.
Nope. He ended up tied for tenth in the NL with 27 home runs. The 27 was more than most people expected, but not #1. I should have stated HR/FB% in which he was #1 in the NL (and AL) with a min 400 PA. Alvarez needs to find his way to the American league where he can bat every day.

1 for 2

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• OK, this is the final MASH for the regular season. During the offseason, I will be posting MASH every Thursday. Hopefully by next Thursday, I will get the projected 2016 disabled list completed. Additionally, I will begin the process of putting together the 2016 disabled list information.

• Giancarlo Stanton is done for the season. Even though I didn’t say he would likely miss the whole season back in late June, the estimates were way low.

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• Freddie Freeman has been dealing with a wrist injury since going on the DL to help heal it.

Freeman didn’t start on Wednesday against the Mets due to his bothersome right wrist, although he pinch-hit in the seventh inning and finished 2-for-2 with a homer and five RBIs. He then vowed on Friday that he’ll play through the injury, and started the past two games in Miami heading into Sunday.

However, he said the wrist felt worse than usual during pregame — eventually causing him to make a bunt attempt prior to lining out in his second at-bat.

“I still went out there and tried,” Freeman said. “It was a tell-tale sign when I tried to bunt, though. …I don’t know if it was because of the quick turnaround and it didn’t heal enough like it does with a night game.”

Said manager Fredi Gonzalez, “He’s tried to play through it, but I think today was just a little bit too much. I didn’t want to continue to run him out there.”

Before going on the DL in June for the injury he was hitting .299/.367/.520 and since the injury he is at .248/.380/.408. Just remember when the 2016 projections come out, they don’t know Freeman played through a wrist injury and will be on the low side.

Josh Hamilton is playing in the Rangers outfield.

“I’m surprisingly good,” Hamilton said. “I knew I would be swollen and I knew I would be stiff. The big tell-tale was this morning, and the swelling was down and the moving parts were better. It responded really well, a lot better than I thought, especially playing nine innings.”

Saturday was the first time Hamilton played left field since Aug. 15, and he went 1-for-4 with a single and three strikeouts. The original plan was for Hamilton to play five to six innings and get three at-bats, but he felt good enough to play the full game.

“I felt like I had good at-bats,” Hamilton said. “I felt comfortable at the plate. I didn’t feel overwhelmed or out of place. Three strikeouts but I felt OK. If I wasn’t seeing the ball or my timing was off, it would be a different story. But I didn’t feel out of whack.”
…
“I thought it went well,” Banister said. “For him to complete the game and get the full complement of at-bats, and still feel good and no real issues, was good. The more at-bats he gets, the more locked in he’ll be.”

It looks like the Rangers will be deciding Hamilton’s playing time day-by-day so he may only be useful in leagues with daily lineups.

• Carlos Martinez will miss the rest of the season with a strained shoulder.

A season that right-hander Carlos Martinez opened with a promise to his late best friend ended abruptly on Saturday after an MRI revealed a Grade 2 strain in his throwing shoulder. The diagnosis came a day after he exited his start after just seven pitches, and it will preclude him from pitching in the postseason.

“If this happened, say, Aug. 1, he probably would pitch again,” said general manager John Mozeliak as he held yet another media gathering to address an injury. “But unfortunately, where we are on the calendar, it’s just not going to work out.”

The Cardinals are confident that the issue can be treated with rest, which means Martinez can avoid surgery, and he is expected to be fully healthy by the start of Spring Training.

Players who are now done for the year.

• Brandon Barnes (hamstring)

• Pablo Sandoval (Pneumonia)

• Huston Street (Groin)

Non-player notes

Velocity Readings

• Jake McGee’s average fastball velocity is on the low side for this season which puts it 2 mph lower than 2014’s value.

Players on the DL in 2015

The Red players have had updates since the last report. Click on the “Date” for a link to go to the latest article on the player.

Players who should be on the DL

Well, sorry for no analysis with this final week of starting pitcher values. Eno and I are traveling and I waited as long as I could to try to get this week’s starters. I implemented the changes people recommended last week which is the team(s) the pitcher is facing and the park factor(s). Most of the over-explanation is in last week’s article. Just let us know if there are additional changes you would like to see.