Robinson Cano: Power Struggles
Generally, everyone expected Robinson Cano home runs, runs batted in and runs scored to be down in 2014 compared to 2013 as he went from the Yankees to the Mariners. The Runs (81 to 77) were about the same and the RBIs dropped a good amount (107 to 82), but it was the home runs which did owners in. They nearly halved going from 27 in 2013 to 14 in 2014. Today, I am going to look at the decline’s cause and if there is any hope for 2015.
The first key is to see how many home runs Cano lost moving from Yankee Stadium to Safeco Field. Using Inside Edge data*, I estimated his HRs in 2012 and 2013 if he played half his games in Safeco and half at a league average field. This value would give an estimate on how much his home run total would go down. He hit 60 for the combined two seasons and the estimated home run total was 54.0. On average, he would be down three home runs per season if he was a Mariner those two years. If we move to his 2014 home runs, he would be estimated to hit 14.4 HR. He wasn’t exactly unlucky this past season, he hit almost as many home runs as he deserved.
Cano has really quit hitting the ball deep and the change started in 2013. Here are some numbers from his last six halves of baseball.
Half: ISO, HR/FB%
2012 1H: .265, 26%
2012 2H: .207, 21%
2013: 1H: .229, 22%
2013 2H: .163, 10%
2014: 1H: .127, 10%
2014 2H: .157, 12%
He is just not hitting the ball as hard. It should not be a surprise since he was 31-years-old and power normally declines steeply at that age. Here is an aging curve for ISO with the HR component separated out:
The home runs numbers really begin to drop around age 30 or 31. The power decline just happened to occur at the same time as he changed teams. With a full season of at bats, I just don’t see him getting his power back. I would put 20 HR as a max value which is near the 18 predicted by Steamer.
As for the rest of his stats, he will feel the drop in Runs and RBIs because of the home run loss. The loss of ~15 automatic Runs and RBIs is tough to make up. As for his AVG, it has been over .300 since 2009 and he is keeping up his contact skills. Additionally, teams have not been successful using the shift against him even though he is normally a pull hitter.
Season: BABIP vs IF Shift, BABIP w/o Shift
2012: .313, .321
2013: .318, .321
2014: .388, .303
While the shift did not effect him too much in 2012 and 2013, he destroyed teams who used it in 2014.
One trait which may take a hit is his BB% and therefor his OBP. He had a career high 20 IBB in 2014. Depending on how he is performing, I could see teams not walk him has much. His BB% could drop to under 5% like it was early in his career.
Cano’s power looks to have peaked and it has dropped to a lower talent level. He may see a small jump in home runs, but 20 home runs is probably a peak value. Just reminder to not value him for his past value, but for his future value.
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* Inside Edge data tracks 99 different zones a batter can hit the ball to. I collected the average amount of flyballs and line drives which went for home runs in each zone. Then I took the league average HR/(LD+FB) and multiplied by times an individual player hit a ball into those zones. Then, I can compared the actual number to the estimated number to get a difference. The data is only available from 2012 to 2014
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Despite his decline he is still arguably the top 2nd baseman going into next year.
It will be close, but I am thinking he will go in the 25-35 range. I could see myself waiting on 2B.
I’d rather get Rendon for a lesser price. Jeff, any favorite 2B targets going into 2015?
I haven’t dug too deep yet but I like a little power and Wong, Schoop, and Gyorko each interest me. I need to see which may have an AVG rebound.
Something seems off on Wong’s steamer projections….they have him down for almost 150 more AB and improvements across the board offensively with an identical SLG and a slightly lesser ISO, however the exact same number of HR/SB….that can’t be right…right?
That is weird
I would personally take Altuve first, but waiting on a 2nd baseman is a good idea. There is likely to be a good value among Kinser, Dozier, Kipnis, Pedroia, Gordon.
Kipnis was hurt last year-tore an oblique and even when he returned he never found his stroke. Pedroia was hurt and aging. Dozier hit for good power and steals in the first half but very few in the second. Zobrist is old and plays in a park that’s not exactly hitter friendly. Dee Gordon -fluke or not?
That leaves the possibility of Cano by default. But Altuve is out there and he’s a real threat though I see regression coming his way.
The other threat to Robbie is Rendon. Hitting 2nd in the Nats lineup is nice. He’s young and on the right side of the aging cycle. Top pick, all the tools.
As a sleeper, Gyorko had some good moments in the second half after an abysmal start.
really liking Wong right now…went 12/20 in abbreviated season, could go 15/25 next year with a decent average and counting stats.
A declining Cano can still be the best 2B’man for a few more years. He doesn’t have to be at his absolute peak to still be a better player than most. Yet in fantasy, it is hard to ignore Altuve’s SBs.
Cano’s HR power started to show a decrease in the second half of 2013. I wouldn’t (and didn’t) make too much of a half season of data, but the fact that the power decrease continued throughout 2014 is probably telling. Looking at the splits, it was his HR total on the road that really tanked this year, dropping from 16 to only five. For his nine year Yankee career, Cano had hit 16 more HRs at home compared to on the road. The park helped him on the HR front, but not as much as advertised. In 2012, the HR splits were extreme with 22 at his home park, yet he still hit 11 on the road, but in 2013 it flipped, with 16 HRs on the road and only 11 at YS. So it’s possible his road HRs will normalize some in 2015, meaning he might hit 20+ HRs again, or we are seeing the beginnings of his decline phase, first showing up in balls leaving the park.
Cano also was a doubles machine, and in a park that depressed his doubles. I expected Cano’s HRs to decrease, but his doubles to increase some, as well as perhaps his BA. None of that happened, and that might be the strongest indication that a decline has begun. I also wonder if he misses his former hitting coach to any degree. Kevin Long (now released) worked with Cano regularly helping him pull the ball for distance.
So if this is the start of his decline, the question is will it be subtle or rapid? Also, how much of this can be attributed to the overall decline in hitting?
What I think is interesting is finding out where the decline of hitting came from. Is it even across the board? Is it that the elite hitters are not as elite as they were several years ago?
Just noticed Cano had a career low FB rate. With reports that the strike zone just recorded its largest expansion in the pitch f/x era, I wonder if some hitters like Cano who derived most of their power numbers from balls up in the zone were hurt more. The percentages might very well have been the same (hi-lo), but with an expanded zone that is down, the number of hittable high pitchers was probably reduced. Something to consider, especially if MLB’s new commissioner shrinks the zone again to boost offense.
Also, its been pointed out that Cano’s power numbers were reduced in the 2nd half last year. Perhaps it took pitchers awhile to figure out they could pitch around Cano with that anemic offense the Yankees had (which got off to a good start), and the Mariners offense was not much better. Cano went on his best run this year when Seager started batting behind him most of the time. June 11-Aug 2 he had a 504 OPS and 911 OPS. When Morales moved behind him most of the time his numbers dropped off
Noting that the expansion was primarily lower in the strike zone
Why is total ISO lower than either of its components?
as for 2nd base- betts should qualify in yahoo next year.
The Yankees sure are glad they didn’t give him Mariners money
I’m a Yankees fan, and I miss him. He changed his approach in Seattle. In NY he worked with hitting coach Kevin Long at pulling the ball to take advantage of the RF porch, which is why the team was happy for him to be in the HR derby. In Seattle, he’s spraying the ball around, thus killing the shift as mentioned in this fine article. Don’t know where I saw his spray chart, but that illustrated his changed approach. He’ll be a great player for years to come, but HR’s will stay down.