Jose Fernandez was having a dominating 2014 season until he needed Tommy John surgery last May. The 22-year-old righty could be one of the more dominant arms in the game when he returns. Fantasy owners would love to have him available mid-season as a boost their team.  While he is on the disabled list (DL), some other pitcher must be filling in for him. Fernandez’s projection should include this replacement pitcher’s production. Here is a break down of how I put on value on players who will miss significant time.

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I have been asked a few times to list the hitters who where shifted the most in 2014 along with their results. Well, here they are along with a few thoughts.

Hitters who hit into a shift 100 or more times during the 2014 season.
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Well, I will take one for the Rotographs team and publish our first rankings to get torn part. I am going with the simplest of all pitcher rankings …. strikeouts minus walks. Basically, how much easily measurable talent does a pitcher have. Can the pitcher strikeout hitters? Does he not walk many? Can he keep pitching for an entire season? Just by running this simple formula and creating a graph of the rankings, some initial thoughts can be formulated for the 2015 draft/auction season.

For the rankings, I used our Steamer projections. These numbers can be re-run at a later date with other projections for more clarity. The entire list is available here. In addition to the list, I have the top 100 pitchers ranked. What I look for now is tiers are any pitchers group together. I like to get one of these pitchers before the talent level drops off.
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Carlos Rodon

Why I watched: One of the 2014 draft picks who is nearly ready to join the big league level club.

Game(s) Watched: 8/30/14 vs Gwinnett Braves

Game Thoughts

• Tough camera angles and this was from one of the better MiLB cameras.

• The lefty is a big boy (6’3 234)

• Used the angles coming from 1B side with a straight fastball. He should be able to own lefties with this pitch.

• Slider just has the same action as his fastball, but moves down with some glove side run. It is a swing and miss pitch with no ability to throw for it for strikes.

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As our own Brad Johnson stated today, one of the reasons pitchers are difficult to evaluate in their inconsistencies. One of the biggest reasons for the inconsistencies is pitcher health. While a few hitters can lose an entire season because of injury, it is just a fraction compared to pitchers who have to sit out.  To help understand each pitcher’s injury risk, I will release my 2015 starting pitcher rankings.

I have been releasing the values for a few seasons with accurate results. Last season, I estimated 50 of the 128 pitchers who threw 120 innings in 2013 would end up on the DL. I was a little low since 53 starters made a least one trip. It work out to 41% or 2 out of every 5 starters. The percentage always seems to hover around 40%.

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• I am going to dissect the DL data since 2002 in any possible way. I already plan on examining team trends, position trends and how certain injuries affect production. Is there anything else you would like look at while I am going over the information?

• At MLB TradeRumors, I examined if the amount of career pitches makes a difference on a pitcher’s health and came to the following conclusion.

Boras continues to mention Scherzer’s pitching odometer as an advantage over Lester and Shields. However, the number of pitches thrown is not indicative of future injury. A high number shows the pitcher can hold up to the grind of being able to successfully throw for full seasons. The main issue between the three pitchers is age. Scherzer is four years younger than Shields. Scherzer’s body may still be able to hold up a bit better than the other pair, but they are still some of the healthiest pitchers in the league. The debate about the trio’s durability should begin and end with age.

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Steven Moya is not exactly a household name in fantasy baseball. He didn’t make any top 100 prospect lists going into the 2014 season, but the 22-year-old has garnered some recent attention. In AA, he hit 35 home runs this past season and five additional ones in the Arizona Fall league. People are always looking for power, but is Moya an option to consider going into 2015? I will look at three items to consider when contemplating his fantasy value.

Good

Moya started getting attention last season and made our own Marc Hulet’s top 10 Tiger prospects and right now he is the top Tigers prospect according to Baseball America after the Tiger’s traded Devon Travis to the Blue Jays. Moya is a free swinging slugger with little plate discipline. When he did hit the ball, he put a charge in it with the 35 home runs, .280 ISO and an .327 BABIP.

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Again, I will keep taking requests and if a pitcher is in the news, I will probably look at them. Some pitchers I am considering are Juan Nicasio, Carlos Rodon and Roenis Elias.

Anthony DeSclafani

Why I watched: Great in the AFL and as a reliever. Horrible as a starter.

Game(s) Watched: 6/22/14 vs Mets

Game Thoughts

• The 24-year-old righty threw a straight 89-94 mph fastball with some release side run. It “rose” a bit making it flyball in nature (30% GB%). It was his only called strike pitch (63% Zone%).

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• Robinson Cano broke his toe playing in Japan. Here is the latest news on his situation.

Cano also said he was encouraged by the fact that he woke up Sunday feeling better than expected. MLB doctors examined him late Sunday night, determining that he should be able to resume regular offseason workouts in mid-December. Cano expects to be back to normal well in advance of Spring Training.

“I thought it was going to be worse today, but just a little pain,” he said. “It’s just something that’s bothering me. Hopefully I’ll recover in four weeks and nothing else happens.”

The key to see if he is healthy in spring training monitor his ability to run … well run as good as he could previously.

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Nelson Cruz got a one year deal with the Orioles last year and had a career season. He had career highs in Home Runs, RBIs and Runs. Most people considered him an after thought on draft or auction day. He ended up as one of the great buys of the 2014 season and he paid his owners handsomely. Well, he is a free agent again and he is probably looking at worse (or a lot worse) home run numbers depending on where he signs.

His 40 league leading home runs where completely unexpected. Or were they? I am just going to look at his home run totals using Inside Edge batted ball data.

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