• I will steal the words of the great philosopher Ned Yost to intro this list of broken down ball players:

“… everything being written at this time of year is just ‘fluff’.

So much ‘Fluff’ right now. I am getting a ton of small updates with how everyone is feeling great and/or making outstanding progress. I am not going to write about each of these “Best Shape in Whenever” reports, but will put them into the injury spreadsheet. I will just try to concentrate on bad news until some games start.

• The Braves Shae Simmons will miss all of the 2015 season because of Tommy John surgery. He was the first player to officially go on the DL in 2015. Chris Withrow and Brandon Beachy has since joined him.

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Last Friday, I wrote about some ways I plan on investigating a deeper into hitters. Here is the first weekly column on the information. I will pulish the data on Sunday night to help with setting weekly leagues. The format and information are not close to being 100%, so expect some changes for a few weeks as I iron out a few wrinkles.

Pitchers’ Approach Attacking Hitters

Robert Arthur at Baseball Prospectus has shown pitchers will change their approach depending on the hitter’s talent level. Here is a complete list of the number of fastballs (including sinkers) thrown to each hitter of the past two years divided into half seasons.  Also the number of pitches in the strike by half season is included along with the fastball percentage in the strike zone.  I will begin adding 2015 information as it becomes available.

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Note: I usually try to pick the most recent game the player pitched. Sometimes the MLB video has issues and other games are picked. Also, if a say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.

Hector Noesi

Why I watched: Looks like he will make the White Sox rotation.

Game(s) Watched: 9/26/14 vs Royals

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Truthfully, I have had it. Here at RotoGraphs we are almost too good at identifying emerging pitchers. We can decently find up-and-coming pitchers with Arsenal Score being the last great accomplishment. Additionally, I am also to blame by looking at how pitchers change and determining if they may be injury prone (example with Scott Kazmir). Most of the advancements in examining pitchers is because of the addition of Pitchf/x data. We know immediately if a pitcher is throwing slower or if he has a new pitch. I feel hitters have taken a back seat for a few years and I would like to try to increase our knowledge of them. I plan on expanding into new areas for batters. Also, I am completely open to new ideas from our readers.

One of the biggest issues with hitters is it tough to know if/when they have changed. The difference may involve power, foot speed, swing adjustments or how pitchers are adjusting to the hitter. I want to take hitter analysis to the next level. I will attempt to live on the “tip of the spear”. The problem with living on the tip is I will probably get cut a few times. I am going to look at some never published data and see if it is useful/predictive. I could see several of my ideas not working out.

Finally before I get into some of my ideas, I will gladly welcome any of your ideas. It can be tweak to something I bring up or a completely new idea. I am ready to give hitters their fair shake.

Idea 1 – Use Pitchf/x Data To See How Pitchers Are Attacking Hitters Read the rest of this entry »

On Friday I wrote the following on Kyle Gibson in my Quick Looks piece:

He increased his Zone% a bit from 2013 t0 2014 (41.9% to 43.6%) and saw his K% increase (12.2% to 14.1%) and BB% drop (8.4% to 7.5%).

While, it may seem intuitive that throwing strikes leads to better strikeout and walk rates, I have never seen it tested. I will remedy this issue right now.

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Note: I usually try to pick the most recent game the player pitched. Sometimes the MLB video has issues and other games are picked. Also, if a say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.

Jordan Lyles
Why I watched: Young projected starter

Game(s) Watched: 9/26/14 vs Dodgers

Game Thoughts

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Trying to figure out who is going to play in the Orioles outfield besides Adam Jones is simply a mess. The talent is tightly bunched with no one standing out. To add to the mess, the Orioles designated hitter will likely also be an outfielder. Stepping through the available information sort of makes the situation clearer, but no one will know for sure until the season starts.

Center field

This position is set with Adam Jones. The 29-year-old righty has been about as steady as can be over the past three seasons with about 160 games, 30 home runs and a .285 AVG. His only trait on the decline over those three years is his stolen bases going from 16 to seven. His defensive numbers have him as an average to below average center fielder which means he is a safe bet to stay there for the entire 2015 season.

Right Field, Left Field and Designated Hitter Read the rest of this entry »

• Victor Martinez will miss 4-8 weeks with a torn medial meniscus in his left knee. This puts him getting healthy in the middle of spring training or a couple of weeks into the season.

The Tigers announced Thursday that Martinez has torn the medial meniscus in his left knee. Martinez tore the cartilage last week during workouts in Florida and underwent an MRI and exam on Wednesday in Lakeland, Fla., where the tear became clear.

Looking at V-Mart, he may see a loss of average and power because of the knee injury. Using the spreadsheet linked in this article on how injuries affect production, here is the average loss in production from players with knee injuries.

Rate Stat: < = 30 DL Days, > 30 DL Days
AVG: -.007, -.014
OBP: -.013, -.014
SLG: -.024, -.045
ISO: -.017, -.031

If the injury brings down his projections, he will be closer to his 2013 version (.301/.355/.430) than the 2014 version (.335/.409/.565).

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Note: I usually try to pick the most recent game the player pitched. Sometimes the MLB video has issues and other games are picked. Also, if a say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.

Marco Gonzales

Why I watched: The top ranked Cardinals prospect according to Baseball America deserved a look.

Game(s) Watched:9/14/14 vs Rockies

Game Thoughts

• The 22-year-old lefty had small amounts of movement on every pitch. Just enough to generate some weak contact.

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Last year for my FG+ article I created a methodology to find unheralded prospects similar to Ben Zobrist and Matt Carpenter by looking at recent minor league walk, strikeout and extra base hit numbers. I named my metric ZOBRIST and it performed better than I expected. I identified 10 players to watch for during the 2014 season and few had good MLB seasons like Kole Calhoun, Marcus Semien and Scott Van Slyke. I have decided to look again for similar players in 2015 with a few changes to the evaluations.

One issue I noticed when I went back and looked at the data was how one of the three traits (power, walks and strikeouts) could hurt the hitters chances for success. A hitter could have no strikeouts, a ton of walks and zero power so they could rate high with my metric. The problem is that the complete lack of power would get exposed in the majors. I needed to set a minimum level for each of the three stats. I use Chris St. John’s minor league walk and strikeout values and a replace level power numbers to set a minimum baseline each hitter must reach.

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