Simple 2015 Pitcher Rankings
Well, I will take one for the Rotographs team and publish our first rankings to get torn part. I am going with the simplest of all pitcher rankings …. strikeouts minus walks. Basically, how much easily measurable talent does a pitcher have. Can the pitcher strikeout hitters? Does he not walk many? Can he keep pitching for an entire season? Just by running this simple formula and creating a graph of the rankings, some initial thoughts can be formulated for the 2015 draft/auction season.
For the rankings, I used our Steamer projections. These numbers can be re-run at a later date with other projections for more clarity. The entire list is available here. In addition to the list, I have the top 100 pitchers ranked. What I look for now is tiers are any pitchers group together. I like to get one of these pitchers before the talent level drops off.
| Name | Team | K-BB | Age | IP | GS | G | SO | BB | K/9 | BB/9 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAN | 181 | 27 | 201 | 32 | 32 | 226 | 45 | 10.1 | 2.0 |
| Chris Sale | CHA | 171 | 26 | 192 | 30 | 30 | 220 | 49 | 10.3 | 2.3 |
| Max Scherzer | FA | 166 | 30 | 189 | 32 | 32 | 219 | 53 | 10.4 | 2.5 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 155 | 28 | 192 | 30 | 30 | 224 | 69 | 10.5 | 3.2 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 155 | 29 | 192 | 30 | 30 | 197 | 42 | 9.3 | 2.0 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFN | 153 | 25 | 201 | 32 | 32 | 203 | 51 | 9.1 | 2.3 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 152 | 26 | 182 | 29 | 29 | 198 | 46 | 9.8 | 2.3 |
| Yusmeiro Petit | SFN | 150 | 30 | 208 | 30 | 65 | 198 | 48 | 8.6 | 2.1 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 149 | 29 | 192 | 30 | 30 | 197 | 48 | 9.2 | 2.2 |
| David Price | DET | 142 | 29 | 192 | 30 | 30 | 179 | 37 | 8.4 | 1.7 |
| Matt Harvey | NYN | 136 | 26 | 173 | 27 | 27 | 185 | 49 | 9.7 | 2.6 |
| Zack Greinke | LAN | 136 | 31 | 192 | 31 | 31 | 181 | 45 | 8.5 | 2.1 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYA | 134 | 26 | 192 | 31 | 31 | 171 | 38 | 8.0 | 1.8 |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 129 | 31 | 182 | 29 | 29 | 177 | 48 | 8.7 | 2.4 |
| Jon Lester | FA | 128 | 31 | 195 | 32 | 32 | 180 | 52 | 8.3 | 2.4 |
| James Shields | FA | 125 | 33 | 201 | 32 | 32 | 175 | 49 | 7.8 | 2.2 |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 125 | 29 | 182 | 29 | 29 | 175 | 49 | 8.6 | 2.4 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 125 | 29 | 192 | 30 | 30 | 160 | 35 | 7.5 | 1.6 |
| Adam Wainwright | SLN | 123 | 33 | 201 | 32 | 32 | 167 | 44 | 7.5 | 2.0 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDN | 122 | 30 | 192 | 30 | 30 | 186 | 64 | 8.7 | 3.0 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 120 | 29 | 182 | 30 | 30 | 155 | 35 | 7.7 | 1.7 |
| Jose Fernandez | MIA | 120 | 22 | 144 | 23 | 23 | 166 | 46 | 10.4 | 2.9 |
| Jeff Samardzija | OAK | 118 | 30 | 192 | 30 | 30 | 171 | 52 | 8.0 | 2.5 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 118 | 25 | 173 | 29 | 29 | 178 | 59 | 9.3 | 3.1 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 117 | 34 | 192 | 31 | 31 | 155 | 38 | 7.3 | 1.8 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LAN | 116 | 28 | 182 | 31 | 31 | 160 | 45 | 7.9 | 2.2 |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | 115 | 30 | 163 | 29 | 29 | 160 | 45 | 8.8 | 2.5 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 115 | 24 | 192 | 31 | 31 | 168 | 53 | 7.9 | 2.5 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 112 | 28 | 192 | 31 | 31 | 170 | 58 | 8.0 | 2.7 |
| Garrett Richards | LAA | 110 | 27 | 192 | 30 | 30 | 174 | 63 | 8.2 | 3.0 |
Thoughts
• Yusmeiro Petit isn’t the 8th overall pitcher, he has 35 RP and 30 starts in his projection which is not going to happen. Using the same K/9 and BB/9, removing 35 IP from his total, he came in with a value of 125 which is even with Shields, Cueto and Hughes. This a perfect case of the rankings and previous thoughts being off. Even though I like him as a starter, he doesn’t seem to belong among these pitchers.
In 2014 as a starter, his K/9 was 9.8 and he had a 1.5 BB/9. His projections are not too far off these values. He did struggle as a starter with a 5.03 ERA caused by a HR/9 (1.5) equal to his BB/9. I want to see the love he gets from other projection systems before I jump all in.
• I will take the under on the innings pitched by Jose Fernandez. He is not supposed to be back until the All-Star break.
• Danny Salazar …. how you burnt me in 2014. OK, does he deserve this high ranking again? The 2014 first half was terrible. 5.53 ERA. 3.8 BB/9. 1.8 HR/9. In the second half his number were: 3.50 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9. From what I see here and my expected expectations of others (which will be very low), I think he may have some hidden value.
• Mike Fiers is another pitcher sticking out at the top of the list (#27) which I didn’t expect. I just don’t trust a pitcher with 223 total MLB innings and a 89 mph fastball. Maybe I should a little more.
• Lance Lynn is ranked higher than Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum and Justin Verlander. I have zero faith in Sabathia and Lincecum righting their careers. They seem done. I am not 100% sure Lee and Verlander are destined to end up so low since they have sucked for less amount of time. I will be monitoring their spring training starts to see if their velocities (and then the strikeouts) come back up.
• The largest noticeable difference between some pitchers (difference in K-BB values):
Kershaw to Sale (10)
Sale to Scherzer (5)
Scherzer to Darvish (10)
Kluber to Price (6)
Price t Harvey (6)
Tananka to Hamels (5)
From then on, the difference is only zero, one or two between pitchers.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Holy Hand Grenades, Batman! Salazar had a .343 BABIP this year! Yikes!
I don’t see any way that is sustained next year. His Line Drive rate was a bit above league average this year (23.4% vs. 20.7%) and even more last year, but he also is way better than league average at inducing infield flies (13.3% career vs. 10.1% AL average).
Some of this has to be the horrid Cleveland infield defense last year. Interesting that his rebound seems to correlate partly with Ramirez taking over shortstop. That being said, with Kipnis still at 2b (at least for now), I don’t see their defense being improved enough to justify Steamer’s projected .286 BABIP next year.
Regress it closer to something like .305 or even .310 and he’s going to be pretty useful. And if he does somehow, through improved defense or luck, manage to be a sub-.300 BABIP, he could be a steal.
“In 2014 as a starter, his K/9 was 9.8 and a 1.5 BB/9. His projections are too far off these values. He did struggle as a starter with a 5.03 ERA”
Am I missing something?
I’m really glad I read this disclaimer on Petit because I open the spreadsheet before I read the article and I must say I threw up a little in my mouth when I saw him above Kluber. Thanks or talking me off the ledge.
You vomited a little in your mouth and then considered jumping off a ledge because of fantasy baseball rankings in December? Hardcore.
Carrasco/Arrieta probably deserve to get a bump over their steamer line and land in this group. And Zimmermann’s increased K-rate from last year probably moves him up, too?
Are we buying this many IP for Wainwright?
Very interesting.
I’ve been offered Yu Darvish (at a high salary) for Jose Abreu (who I own for cheap).
Led the league in HR’s and every offensive category by a large margin last year because the team also has Stanton, Cruz, Miggy, Rendon, etc.
The team also led the league in all RP categories.
SP’s are light because I own young and cheap except for Sale. The roster includes guys like Cole, Wacha, and Cashner.
Darvish’s salary is a big problem, but not insurmountable with cash offered in the deal; however, didn’t have him projected as #4(using a personal build projection system based on our point system) due to a number of factors.
Hmmm…What to do?
You have a more valuable player on a better salary and are considering trading him for a less valuable player on a worse salary simply to address a team need? Sale, Cole, Wacha, Cashner isn’t a terrible start to build from in the draft. You have one of the most valuable commodities in the league in Abreu. Don’t let him go easily.
Thanks, Nick. I appreciate the feedback. (No sarcasm.)
While Darvish may be less valuable in a 5×5 format, it’s not necessarily true in this particular league’s design.
This is a Ottoneu-like, custom points dynasty league. Other than picking up some guys in our minor league draft, my team is set for next season. The team has solid offense at every position and some serious prospects under control. I could have benched Abreu last year and still outscored the rest of the league in offense…and no, I don’t expect $2 Nelson Cruz to repeat 2014.
The problem I ran into last season was starting pitcher injuries. Note that all of the pitchers I named were on the DL at the same time….and some were on the DL more than once. As valuable as Abreu is, like MLB you can never have too much starting pitching in this format.
I discounted some of Darvish’s value in my projections next year due to his issues this past season. IF he can stay healthy and reach these kind of projections, for both the short and long term team construction (other than the salary, but there’s cash in the offer) it might make sense.
Note: We don’t own players forever. They’re eligible for free agency after a period of time. That’s entering into the equation, too.
The league is active all year and this has been a standing offer since the end of September, so no, I’m not just going to give Abreu away.
Curious to know how Ryu is behind players like Salazar and Kennedy
What about the complicated 2015 pitchers?
Fiers ranked, but not deGrom? I’m a homeboy but Jacob looked good this year.
Good stuff! Maybe the slightly less simple version could include k%-bb%
I don’t understand why Kyle Kendrick isn’t on this list. He had 10 wins last year which was more than Cole Hamels. We are currently working with Kyle on a multi-year contract.