Quick Looks – Rodon, Flynn, Elias, Bolsinger
Why I watched: One of the 2014 draft picks who is nearly ready to join the big league level club.
Game(s) Watched: 8/30/14 vs Gwinnett Braves
Game Thoughts
• Tough camera angles and this was from one of the better MiLB cameras.
• The lefty is a big boy (6’3 234)
• Used the angles coming from 1B side with a straight fastball. He should be able to own lefties with this pitch.
• Slider just has the same action as his fastball, but moves down with some glove side run. It is a swing and miss pitch with no ability to throw for it for strikes.
• Rodon had issues with the running game. He was playing with his grip and never looked at the runners several times and they took off on him.
• His change was straight with a small amount of drop at the end.
• Just throws away some pitches leading to high pitch counts.
• Inconsistent with his pitches. Slider nasty to hanging (crushed).
Final thoughts: Inconsistencies are leading to a high walk rate (12% in A+ and 15% in AAA) which will limit his potential right now.
Why I watched: Traded to the Royals from the Marlins
Game(s) Watched: 8/7/14 vs Pirates (his only 2014 MLB start)
Game Thoughts
• The 26-year-old lefty looks like he belongs in the WWE at 6’7” and 250 lbs. The biggest issue I saw with him was his consistency in delivery, pitches and location. If a person just saw the 3rd inning, they would have a positive outlook on him. He was throwing his curve for strikes and his fastball showed some great late drop. The rest of the game, he was blah at best.
• His delivery was all over the place. He looks like he is throwing down hill with motion, but since his arms are so long, the ball comes across home plate at an angle.
• His fastball sat at 89-92. Most of the time it came in straight, but a few times it showed some sink. In the 3rd inning it looked great. He lives on the 1B part of the plate with it.
• His slider was at 84 mph and loopy. He really didn’t throw it much.
• Also, around 85 mph is where he threw his change. It was straight with a small bit of late drop. I don’t think it shows enough difference between his fastball to be effective.
• His curve was his best pitch. He could throw it for strikes or get hitters to chase it.
• His defense let him down quite a bit during this game.
Final thoughts: I would love to call him a LOOGY, but I don’t think he is dominate enough to get lefties out consistently. The best case is if the Royals can harness the sinker and curve, keep the change and then have a #4 or #5 starter.
Why I watched: Several readers requested him
Game(s) Watched: 9/9/14 vs Astros
Game Thoughts
• The 26-year-old lefty had good command (ability to throw to glove), especially with his fastball.
• He didn’t come at hitters with any weird angles like other lefties. He pitched pretty much downhill. There was little side-to-side break. If any break existed, it was vertical. With the downhill motion, he is able to get out both left and right-handed hitters (3.65 FIP vs LHH and 4.14 FIP vs RHH).
• His fastball sat between 91-94 mph and was fairly straight. He was able to move this pitch around the zone with ease.
• His change was at 85-86 mph. It was straight with a bit of late drop. He has problems finding the strike zone with it (33% Zone%).
• His 11/5 77-81 mph curve was loopy with some glove side run. He could throw it for strikes. I couldn’t tell exactly what was different in his motion, but I seemed to be able to tell the pitch was coming.
• His three pitches induce an above average groundball rate and his change and curve are above average in swinging strike rate. His issue all season was walks (9.2% BB%, 44% Zone%). He needs to trust his stuff and throw more strikes.
Final thoughts: He as the talent to be an above average pitcher, but he just needs to trust his pitches more and throw them for strikes. I saw the potential of a #2 to #4 starter, but he will skirt being useful with the high walk rate.
Why I watched: Recently traded to Dodgers
Game(s) Watched: 7/11/14 vs Giants
Game Thoughts
• He threw almost completely over the top. Because of his motion, his pitches only broke in the vertical direction. Straight fastball. A cutter which sunk some and curve which sunk more. The downward nature of his pitches can be seen in his 52% GB%.
• He nibbled around the strike zone at times and could lead to high BB%.
• His fastball was between 88-90 mph. It was straight and he lived down in the zone with it.
• His 12-6 loopy curve was at 78-84 mph and he could throw it for strikes. He threw the curve a lot (33% on the season)
• His cutter was between 87-88 mph and had a decent amount of downward break.
Final thoughts: I expected to find a horrible pitcher and he wasn’t. His 13% K%-BB% is comparable to Lance Lynn and Francisco Liriano. It would be nice for him to throw a pitch which broke horizontally. If he finds regular playing time, he could be a serviceable pitcher in deeper or NL-only leagues.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Neato
That’s a very accurate summation on Roenis Elias from my perspective watching about half a dozen of his starts, JZ. I’ll amplify a few observations.
Roenis used several different release points prior to 2014 Spring Training, when the coaching staff worked to have him consolidate those into a single location. The result was a velocity gain, allowing him to hit 93-94 at times. Elias did struggle with repeating a single point at times, especially in mid-summer; those days, he would have poor command and miss the strike zone a lot, though not miss much in it. You saw one of his better games late in the season.
When Elias has had good games with his single release point, he does move the fastball around at well, yes, with good location; just as you say, and it is a strength. He pitched inside to LHBs all year, but came in on RHBs too. This was key to his effectiveness. Something else Elias did very well all year long was sneak the high FB by hitters routinely, though he may have moved away from this later in the season. At the same time, his FB is fairly straight, as you say, historically was a couple of mph slower, and even now is as often to come in at 90-91 as higher. To me, this may be why he still doesn’t ‘trust his stuff’ fully. And in fact, batters slugged pretty damned well against his FB, so he has reason to be cautious. Elias also had some elbow issues in later summer and was shut down for a while. This may well have been due to throwing harder with a new motion putting more stress on his arm. He came back in September and had a couple of solid starts, it’s not like he’s an injury waiting to happen. However, we may not be able to count on Elias retaining the high part of his velocity range over the mid-term.
That is a very interesting observation on Elias somehow telegraphing his breaking pitch. Now that you mention it, I almost recall the same feeling watching him. Part of it was pitch count patterns and situations. The catcher definitely seemed to call for the curve in fairly obvious situations. Part of the effect may then be that the situation cues the observer as much as the motion; the situation called for a curve, and by gum he threw one. Elias said in-season that he actually throws (at least) two types of curve, one bigger for the chase or in the dirt, and another to pick up the strike zone and likely get GB contact. He may have simplified to one version only in September, I don’t know. The big curve was almost unhittable and his best pitch; like Zito’s, actually. Not a strike usually, but tempting as a double ice cream cone. He did not hang many curves over the course of the year, more likely to bounce them badly in the dirt, or miss high out of the zone altogether.
Something about Roenis Elias that may not have been evident in the game you happened to watch is that he is extremely proficient at throwing the DP ball with a man on 1B. I suspect he got these more with the change than the curve, but getting the DP was a huge part of his effectiveness limiting damage and pitch counts. Elias is a very cool customer with men on, and doesn’t have to try to force a K to get out of trouble.
I would love for Elias to pick up a cutter so that he had a pitch with more lateral break. Given his good FB command now, I suspect he would be very effective locating it.
When Elias was really on, he absolutely was a No. 2 guy, completely baffling good-hitting offenses shaving the bottom of the zone with his curve(s) and working both corners with the FB. Most of the year he was a 5+ inning guy due to missing the zone a lot pitching to the same approach. Again, I’d almost like to see him add a useful slider or good cutter to the mix rather than change anything else. What I’m most looking for in Elias in 2015 is to avoid injury while retaining his velocity. He’s very effective right now, and might be able to take a significant step forward yet.
Thanks for the added information. I may grab Elias as one of my pitchers to feature in the upcoming weeks as we look at SP. I may look at his count/pitch mix to see if the curve is used only when expected.
That would be great, Jeff. More granular data on Elias would be welcome. In my view, Elias is moderately likely to be dealt this offseason, so he may be pitching in a different context next year, so that is also a fair reason to give him a more in depth review. Also, Elias pitched the most innings of his career in 2014, and may have worn down a bit later in the season. That is something else to watch with him going forward, particularly those looking to him in a fantasy context.
I appreciated the info on Rodon too, btw. More specific scouting synopsis than I’ve seen widely available, and good to know. He’s a beast, but has a lot of refinement to do; no surprise.
Balthzy,
Thanks for the detailed report.