Javier Baez has been getting quite a bit of acclaim since returning to the Cubs with his reduced strikeout rate. In 2014, Baez had a 42% strikeout rate (K%) in the majors and 2015 value of 22% K% looks to be a huge improvement. Don’t get too excited about this small sample of data as his swing strike rate (SwStr%) points to a strikeout rate which will likely increase quickly.

Historically, a hitter’s strikeout rate correlates almost identically to their swinging strike rate. The reason to use SwStr% instead of K%  is because it stabilizes a bit faster. I took all hitters since 2002 who had at least 200 plate appearances in a season and found the linear correlation between their strikeout rate and swinging strike rate. The R-squared between the two values was .947 with the equation working out to:

K% = 2.25 * SwStr%

With this little bit of information, here is a look at Baez’s stats in the majors the past two seasons.

Season: SwStr%, Predicted K%, Actual K%
2014: 19.2%, 43.2%, 41.5%
2015: 18.5%, 41.6%, 22.2%

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• Ryan Zimmerman will miss significant time with an oblique injury.

Nationals first baseman Ryan Zimmerman remains out of the lineup because of a left oblique injury. Although he is listed as day to day, two sources expected Zimmerman to miss a significant amount of time because of the injury.

• Manuel Banuelos will be shut down for the rest of the season with elbow discomfort.

Banuelos exited Sunday’s disappointing outing against the Nationals with some elbow discomfort. The Braves held out hope that the pain would subside as this week progressed. But before Wednesday’s series finale against the Phillies, Atlanta manager Fredi Gonzalez revealed the rookie left-hander would be re-evaluated by Dr. James Andrews next week.

“We don’t think there is anything significant there, he’s just in pain right now,” Braves assistant general manager John Coppolella said. “He wasn’t feeling great. We had hoped he might come in and feel really good today. That didn’t happen.”

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• I better give my two cents on the Matt Harvey situation. In my opinion, there should not have been any big blow up on his innings limit this past weekend. Both sides should have gotten together before the season and discussed how Harvey should be handled in case the Mets make the post season. The general outline of this agreement should have then been made public so everyone has an idea of what is going on. This discussion should not be happening now in early September, but when the season started. The Mets, Harvey, and Boras created this mess and now they need to figure it out. Anyone who wants to point fingers needs to do so at all parties.

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After three months, my kids are back to school and I finally have some additional time to restart my Quick Looks column. Today, I am going to start with a couple pitchers I saw at a while back but didn’t have time to type up. Hopefully each week, I will get a look at three to five pitchers and give you my take.

I will continue to implement player grading on the scouting scales of 20-80. I will use Kiley McDaniels scale he discussed in this article.

I will give a value for where I think the pitcher could currently fit in on the average team (CV=current value) and where they could end up (FV=future value). I am sure I will disagree with some grades from others, but I am only looking at one game.

Note: If I say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.

Taylor Jungmann (CV: 50/FV: 55)
7/19/15 vs Pirates

Game Thoughts
• The 25-year-old righty really liked to pitch downhill keeping the ball low in the zone. Additionally, is fastball has some natural sink at times, so he should get a decent number of groundballs (46% on the season).
• His fastball was possibly two different pitches and Pitchf/x had problems labeling them. When the fastball was in the 93-95 mph range, it really straightened out and had little sink. When he kept it around 91 mph, it would get a nice amount of sink.
• His curveball was 75-76 and was a nice pitch. He used it as a swing-and-miss pitch and also for called strikes if needed.
• His change was between 84-86 mph with some release-side run. In this start, it was not consistent at all. Sometimes it broke, other times not. It seemed to improve a bit as the game went on.
• He would really pound the bottom of the zone and if he gets an ump with a higher zone, he may have walk issues.
• He could have some bad games were he gets BABIP to death with the ground balls.

Final thoughts: None of his pitches stood out as plus, but the combination really worked good together. It would be nice to see his walk rate drop a bit more. I see him being a 4th to 5th starter in 12-team leagues next year

Cody Anderson (CV: 40/FV: 40)
7/4/15 vs Pirates

Game Thoughts
• The 24-year-old righty had a nice start to the season, but as regressed quite a bit since then.
• His fastball was at 92-95 mph and can get some nice sink at the lower velocities.
• He had an 86-90 mph cutter/slider with some sinker/downward action. If that description sounds confusion is because the pitch was all over the place.
• His 83-85 mph change was straight as an arrow.
• He threw a curve at 81 mph with 12-6 break.
• None of the pitches had any swing and miss. His results are going to be determined by the quality of sacrifices he makes to the BABIP gods.
• He throws from a 3/4 release point and keeps the ball down. He lives on the edge of the strike zone with the change being the only pitch he throws into the heart of the zone.

Final thoughts: There is nothing here to be excited about. He is nothing more than a long reliever who will get a spot start now and then. There is no reason to own him. He needs to get his strikeouts in the 6 K/9 for me to be interested

• September 1st is such a mess with all the transactions. A bunch of semi-hurt players came off the DL. Also, several minor league DL players moved to the MLB 60-day DL to increase roster spots. With no real reason to put players on the DL with the expanded rosters, I will try to keep track of those players in another table after the official DL players. I hope I got everything, but let me know if I missed anything.

• Mark Teixeira’s bone bruise is going to keep him out at least two weeks. Historically, hitters take a little longer to return, but the time frame is close.

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• Tomorrow roster’s can expand to allow anyone on the 40-man roster to join the MLB team. This is when the official DL becomes about useless. Teams won’t move players to the DL because teams no longer need to free up roster spots. Also, hitters who can hit, but not play in the field will return. It will keep a list of players who should be on the DL, but aren’t starting on Thursday.

• Stephen Strasburg owners may not want to start him this week as he is again dealing with back issues.

Still, Strasburg left after throwing 60 pitches in four innings, allowing seven hits and four runs, all four on home runs. Nationals Manager Matt Williams described the problem as a “recurrence” of the upper back trouble he had earlier this season, which contributed to his first of two 2015 disabled list stints. Asked if this discomfort may lead to a third, Strasburg said, “I wouldn’t jump to that conclusion.”

We will know more after he pitches his mid-week bullpen session.

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• Carlos Carrasco is on the DL with a sore shoulder. It is never good to have pain, but this injury sounds pretty minor.

The Indians said they expect Carrasco to require just the minimum stay on the DL.

“Watching him throw his bullpen yesterday, he’s OK, he’s just a little bit stiff after,” Indians manager Terry Francona said before Tuesday’s game. “I was glad they did the MRI. Sometimes when you give MRIs to pitchers, you have to be careful because anybody that’s thrown a baseball can have something wrong in there. But his was very clean. We were thrilled.”

The news could have been much worse.

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• I having traveling and enjoying Massachusetts for the Saberseminar. I just have not been able to keep up on MASH and need to get out an update before more injuries mount up. Well, this morning I think I may have caught up …. maybe. Today’s MASH is pretty much just a status report with little to no analysis. On Thursday, I will run an in depth on several of these injuries.

• Hunter Pence will probably miss close to the minimum 15 days with a strained oblique

• Billy Hamilton is out with a sore shoulder.

• While the team won’t admit it, Jake McGee will not throw for the major league team this season. The team is putting a 6-8 week return time for him which will be after the regular season.

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• Christian Yelich is on the DL with a knee contusion (official report). Here is the report from the team’s website.

Yelich bruised his right knee last Sunday at Atlanta. He’s been dealing with swelling in the knee. If the knee doesn’t respond in another couple of days, Yelich likely will return to Miami and get an MRI.

So we have possible swelling, bruising, and/or contusion of the knee. With the wide variance in possibilities, here are the possible return times for players with any of the three injuries to the knee.

The return times are all over the place, but an estimate of three weeks is reasonable with the chance it could last until this season’s end.

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• It may be time to pick up Hector Olivera if you want him as rehabs his hamstring injury in the minors. The Braves are saying he is two weeks off from debuting in the majors so I think it is now or never to pick the player up.

Olivera, who hasn’t played since injuring his hamstring in Triple-A in June while still a member of the Dodgers’ organization, will play two or three days in the GCL according to Hart, and he’ll be moved up through the system from there.

“Get his legs under him a little bit, and we’re satisfied that the hamstring is not an issue — with the idea that we’ll bring him to Atlanta at some point.”

Hart feels that Olivera could make his Major League debut in two weeks, barring any setbacks.

• As expected, Jose Fernandez went on the DL with a strained bicep. I expect him to do a full recovery, pitch a game or two, and then be shut down.

• Koji Uehara is on the DL and will miss the rest of the season with a fractured wrist. Follow the Bullpen Report to find out who may end up with the Save chances in Boston.

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