• OK, this is the final MASH for the regular season. During the offseason, I will be posting MASH every Thursday. Hopefully by next Thursday, I will get the projected 2016 disabled list completed. Additionally, I will begin the process of putting together the 2016 disabled list information.
• Giancarlo Stanton is done for the season. Even though I didn’t say he would likely miss the whole season back in late June, the estimates were way low.
• Freddie Freeman has been dealing with a wrist injury since going on the DL to help heal it.
Freeman didn’t start on Wednesday against the Mets due to his bothersome right wrist, although he pinch-hit in the seventh inning and finished 2-for-2 with a homer and five RBIs. He then vowed on Friday that he’ll play through the injury, and started the past two games in Miami heading into Sunday.
However, he said the wrist felt worse than usual during pregame — eventually causing him to make a bunt attempt prior to lining out in his second at-bat.
“I still went out there and tried,” Freeman said. “It was a tell-tale sign when I tried to bunt, though. …I don’t know if it was because of the quick turnaround and it didn’t heal enough like it does with a night game.”
Said manager Fredi Gonzalez, “He’s tried to play through it, but I think today was just a little bit too much. I didn’t want to continue to run him out there.”
Before going on the DL in June for the injury he was hitting .299/.367/.520 and since the injury he is at .248/.380/.408. Just remember when the 2016 projections come out, they don’t know Freeman played through a wrist injury and will be on the low side.
Josh Hamilton is playing in the Rangers outfield.
“I’m surprisingly good,” Hamilton said. “I knew I would be swollen and I knew I would be stiff. The big tell-tale was this morning, and the swelling was down and the moving parts were better. It responded really well, a lot better than I thought, especially playing nine innings.”
Saturday was the first time Hamilton played left field since Aug. 15, and he went 1-for-4 with a single and three strikeouts. The original plan was for Hamilton to play five to six innings and get three at-bats, but he felt good enough to play the full game.
“I felt like I had good at-bats,” Hamilton said. “I felt comfortable at the plate. I didn’t feel overwhelmed or out of place. Three strikeouts but I felt OK. If I wasn’t seeing the ball or my timing was off, it would be a different story. But I didn’t feel out of whack.”
…
“I thought it went well,” Banister said. “For him to complete the game and get the full complement of at-bats, and still feel good and no real issues, was good. The more at-bats he gets, the more locked in he’ll be.”
It looks like the Rangers will be deciding Hamilton’s playing time day-by-day so he may only be useful in leagues with daily lineups.
• Carlos Martinez will miss the rest of the season with a strained shoulder.
A season that right-hander Carlos Martinez opened with a promise to his late best friend ended abruptly on Saturday after an MRI revealed a Grade 2 strain in his throwing shoulder. The diagnosis came a day after he exited his start after just seven pitches, and it will preclude him from pitching in the postseason.
“If this happened, say, Aug. 1, he probably would pitch again,” said general manager John Mozeliak as he held yet another media gathering to address an injury. “But unfortunately, where we are on the calendar, it’s just not going to work out.”
The Cardinals are confident that the issue can be treated with rest, which means Martinez can avoid surgery, and he is expected to be fully healthy by the start of Spring Training.
Players who are now done for the year.
• Huston Street (Groin)
Non-player notes
Velocity Readings
• Jake McGee’s average fastball velocity is on the low side for this season which puts it 2 mph lower than 2014’s value.
Players on the DL in 2015
The Red players have had updates since the last report. Click on the “Date” for a link to go to the latest article on the player.
Players who should be on the DL
Well, sorry for no analysis with this final week of starting pitcher values. Eno and I are traveling and I waited as long as I could to try to get this week’s starters. I implemented the changes people recommended last week which is the team(s) the pitcher is facing and the park factor(s). Most of the over-explanation is in last week’s article. Just let us know if there are additional changes you would like to see.
• It as been a slow few days for any important injury news. Most of my work was concentrated on the unofficial disabled list.
• Yadier Molina got some good news after injuring his thumb earlier in the week. He may be back before the season’s end.
Molina said his thumb isn’t as swollen or tender now as it had been a day earlier, and he’ll continue to ice it while refraining from all baseball activities. He’ll be reevaluated by early next week to determine what the next step may be. Asked if he thought he’d be back behind the plate before the end of the regular season, Molina said: “I think so. I hope so.”
“Obviously, you follow what the trainers say,” he added. “You want to follow their lead. But you have to be patient. You can’t rush things. Right now, I’m in that period. I want to take my time until it feels good.”
A couple of years ago for FG+, I created a minor league rating stat for hitters called ZOBRIST. It looks for hitters who were off prospect ranking lists and showed a propensity to control the strike zone and hit for power in the upper minors. It aims to find such untouted hitters such as Ben Zobrist, Matt Carpenter, and Kole Calhoun. I ran it after the 2014 season and didn’t have the best of luck picking out some non-prospects (it did love Mookie Betts). Well, it is time to run it again for some 2016 unheralded sleepers.
Matt Boyd (45 CV/50+ FV)
8/28 vs Blue Jays
Game Thoughts
• The 24-year-old lefty was very blahh in the start I saw.
• His fastball was 89-94 mph, straight and thrown high in the zone. It may even have a bit of “rise” to it
• His slider was 77-78 mph with 11-6 break and the only pitch he has which can create ground balls.
• His change was 78-80 mph and straight. It follows the same path as his fastball, but 10 mph slower. It eats up right-handed hitters.
• Finally, he threw a few curves which were at 69-72 mph with 11-6 break
• Boyd’s high fastball and change are going to give up some flyballs. Among starters with 40 IP, he has the 7th lowest GB% at 32.4%. He could end up with home run issues as he is this season with a 2.6 HR/9.
• He throwing away too many pitches which aren’t even near the strike zone. He gets into too many long at bats and ends up working from behind.
He lost a little velo as the game went on never getting over 93 mph on his fastball after the 3rd inning.
• Sorry about not getting Thursday’s MASH report out, so today’s post covers the past seven days.
• Jung-ho Kang will miss the rest of this season and probably part of next with a fractured tibia and torn meniscus.
Kang’s native Korea did not take the news well, either. The fans are reportedly irate over the Chris Coghlan slide that took Kang out at second, and out of action until possibly late-May of next season.
This injury sucks in so many ways.
Well, I have had making a two-start evaluator on my to-do list for a while. With the help of Jonah Pemstein, the project is done. A problem is its usefulness with only two weeks left in the season. I am going to roll it out anyway and take comments over the next couple of weeks. It will then be ready for full implementation to start next season.
The setup is pretty simple right now.
•Find the games a pitcher is expected to start this upcoming week.
• Determine the starters projected Steamer stats per start.
• Use my Standing Gain Points formula I calculated to start the season to give each pitcher a weekly value. Then rank them by this value.
This is all the data available for now, but running it for the first time I found a few ways to improve it going forward.
• I ran into a coding error for pitchers who have no more projected starts (end of the list like Hudson or Moore) according to Steamer. I am trying to get the depth charts updated to make sure this doesn’t happen in the future.
• On the same note, the stats for pitchers who are swingman (starter and reliever) may be a bit inflated because of the improved reliever rates.
• Wins are just funky but needed to show the value of the chance to pick up two Wins. Ideas?
• The strength of opponent and park factors are not shown or worked in yet. I am working on this portion now but wanted to make the list available before next week.
I will use player grading on the scouting scales of 20-80. I will use Kiley McDaniels scale he discussed in this article.
| Grade | Hitter | Starting Pitcher | Relief Pitcher | WAR |
| 80 | Top 1-2 | #1 Starter | —- | 7 |
| 75 | Top 2-3 | #1 | —- | 6 |
| 70 | Top 5 | #1/2 | —- | 5 |
| 65 | All-Star | #2/3 | —- | 4 |
| 60 | Plus | #3 | High Closer | 3 |
| 55 | Above Avg | #3/4 | Mid Closer | 2.5 |
| 50 | Avg Regular | #4 | Low CL/High SU | 2 |
| 45 | Platoon/Util | #5 | Low Setup | 1.5 |
| 40 | Bench | Swing/Spot SP | Middle RP | 1 |
| 35 | Emergency Call-Up | Emergency Call-Up | Emergency Call-Up | 0 |
| 30 | *Organizational | *Organizational | *Organizational | -1 |
I will give a value for where I think the pitcher could currently fit in on the average team (CV=current value) and where they could end up (FV=future value). I am sure I will disagree with some grades from others, but I am only looking at one game.
Note: If I say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.
Aaron Nola (CV: 60/FV: 70)
8/23/15 vs Marlins
Game Thoughts
• The 22-year-old righty had a slightly funky delivery. He threw from a low 3/4 release across his body, which is a little unusual for a right-handed pitcher. Additionally, he had a little late leg lift which may be a little distracting for the hitter.
Read the rest of this entry »
• Troy Tulowitzki is expected to miss two to three weeks with a cracked shoulder.
Toronto won’t definitively know whether Tulowitzki can make it back for at least another week. His progress will be closely monitored, and not only does the bone have to heal, but some internal bleeding has to subside and the muscles need to recover.
“I think there is a chance,” Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos said Sunday morning. “Just talking to the doctors, they do think it is a little early to try to set a timetable on it.
“We’ll know more in the next few days, but if they had to guess, and it really is only a guess at this point, could be two to three weeks and then he could be back for October. Hopefully we’re playing at that time. That’s really all we have, but we’ll know more as the next few days come along.”
To me, it sounds like they have no clue when he will be back. I went and looked through my injury databases and only found one player who had a fracture in his shoulder. Carlos Gomez missed 37 games in 2011 because of a fractured shoulder.
