Final 2015 ZOBRIST Values

September 24, 2015

A couple of years ago for FG+, I created a minor league rating stat for hitters called ZOBRIST. It looks for hitters who were off prospect ranking lists and showed a propensity to control the strike zone and hit for power in the upper minors. It aims to find such untouted hitters such as Ben Zobrist, Matt Carpenter, and Kole Calhoun. I ran it after the 2014 season and didn’t have the best of luck picking out some non-prospects (it did love Mookie Betts). Well, it is time to run it again for some 2016 unheralded sleepers.

I haven’t made any changes this year to ZOBRIST, after implementing some baseline strikeout and walk values last year. Here are the players who meet those requirements and some thoughts on some of those players.

Name	Team	Position	PA	Age	ZOBRIST	BB%	K%	XBH%
Jeremy Dowdy	White Sox	C	32	24	500	25.0%	9.4%	9.4%
Ramon Flores	Mariners	OF	63	23	381	17.5%	9.5%	12.7%
Rougned Odor	Rangers	2B	124	21	323	9.7%	8.1%	15.3%
Dan Fiorito	Yankees	3B	25	24	320	12.0%	4.0%	8.0%
Leonys Martin	Rangers	OF	43	27	279	11.6%	9.3%	11.6%
Garrett Cooper	Brewers	1B	36	24	267	19.4%	5.6%	8.3%
Tommy La Stella	Cubs	2B	38	26	263	10.5%	7.9%	10.5%
Jake Smolinski	Rangers	OF	50	26	259	8.2%	10.9%	15.7%
Austin Hedges	Padres	C	79	22	253	10.1%	10.1%	12.7%
Carlos Perez	Angels	C	79	24	253	8.9%	8.9%	12.7%
Jose Ramirez	Indians	2B	195	22	236	8.7%	4.6%	8.2%
Jerry Sands	Indians	1B/OF	276	27	232	16.3%	14.5%	9.8%
Josh Bell	Pirates	1B/OF	145	22	221	14.5%	10.3%	8.3%
Jason Rogers	Brewers	1B	147	27	218	16.3%	15.7%	10.9%
Ender Inciarte	Diamondbacks	OF	23	24	209	13.0%	8.7%	13.0%
Sutton Whiting	Cubs	2B/DH	23	23	209	30.4%	17.4%	4.4%
Aledmys Diaz	Cardinals	SS	58	24	207	10.3%	8.6%	10.3%
Ryan Lavarnway	Braves	C/DH	49	27	204	16.3%	14.3%	8.2%
Mason Williams	Yankees	OF	91	23	198	8.8%	6.6%	8.8%
Travis Jankowski	Padres	OF	113	24	195	11.5%	8.9%	7.1%
Nick Martini	Cardinals	OF	67	25	179	13.4%	14.9%	10.5%
Aneury Tavarez	Red Sox	OF	23	23	174	13.0%	17.4%	13.0%
Tyler White	Astros	1B/3B	259	24	167	17.0%	14.8%	8.1%
Lewis Brinson	Rangers	OF	37	21	162	18.9%	16.2%	5.4%
Andrew Aplin	Astros	OF	134	24	161	17.9%	9.7%	5.2%
Dan Black	White Sox	1B	140	27	157	19.3%	17.1%	9.3%
Austin Barnes	Dodgers	C/2B	335	25	155	10.5%	10.8%	8.4%
Jose Pirela	Yankees	2B/SS	259	25	154	9.3%	8.5%	7.0%
Jose Martinez	Royals	OF	396	26	152	12.1%	13.9%	9.6%
Travis Snider	Pirates	OF	40	27	150	10.0%	7.5%	5.0%
Mike O’Neill	Cardinals	OF	239	27	144	15.1%	7.1%	2.5%
A.J. Schugel	Diamondbacks	P	25	26	144	16.0%	8.0%	4.0%
Carlos Alonso	Phillies	2B/3B	51	27	141	17.7%	11.8%	5.9%
Derrick Chung	Blue Jays	C	87	27	138	13.8%	9.2%	6.9%
Max Kepler	Twins	OF	482	22	134	13.9%	13.1%	11.2%
Brock Stassi	Phillies	1B	554	25	126	13.9%	11.4%	8.7%
Carlos Correa	Astros	SS	133	20	117	11.3%	18.8%	18.1%
Forrestt Allday	Red Sox	OF	21	24	114	23.8%	14.3%	0.0%
Tyler Heineman	Astros	C	95	24	114	8.4%	6.3%	7.4%
Carlos Moncrief	Indians	OF	236	26	107	14.4%	11.9%	6.8%
Ryan Schimpf	Blue Jays	2B	307	27	106	13.7%	17.6%	13.0%
Jeimer Candelario	Cubs	3B	182	21	105	12.1%	11.5%	8.8%
J.P. Crawford	Phillies	SS	405	20	104	12.1%	11.1%	8.2%
Joey Rickard	Rays	OF	282	24	102	13.8%	14.9%	9.6%
Carlos Paulino	Twins	C	72	25	100	9.7%	8.3%	6.9%
Jason Krizan	Tigers	OF	475	26	99	10.7%	9.1%	6.7%
Angel Franco	Royals	2B	188	25	96	8.0%	9.0%	9.6%
Willson Contreras	Cubs	C	521	23	94	10.9%	11.9%	8.8%
Corey Jones	Tigers	2B	89	27	94	11.2%	7.9%	4.5%
Sam Travis	Red Sox	1B	281	21	94	11.7%	12.1%	8.2%
Tony Kemp	Astros	2B	230	23	94	15.2%	12.2%	4.8%
Bijan Rademacher	Cubs	OF	433	24	91	15.5%	13.9%	6.2%
Tony Renda	Yankees	2B	304	24	91	7.9%	7.9%	7.6%

Players
Jerry Sands – Sands has basically had the problem of striking out way too much for his limited major league power. This year in the minors, he showed the power with 14 home runs and a 14.5% K%, but again those numbers have not translated to the majors.

Tyler White – Not much love for Tyler White outside of the some hardcore Astros fans who are fed up with Chris Carter. Carter has a career walk rate (16%) higher than his strikeout rate (15%). Besides the outstanding plate discipline, he put up decent power numbers in 2015 with 14 total home runs between AA and AAA. His defense may be his limiting factor on getting called up, but in instructs this fall he is listed as a catcher.

Austin Barnes – The ZOBRIST players definitely have some overlap with Carson’s “Fringe Five” and Austin Barnes is definitely one of those players. The biggest knock on Barnes has been his power, but he has been putting up acceptable power numbers. In just 10 batted balls so far, his average exit velocity is at 93 mph with a max value of 111 mph. These values could equate to league average power from the catcher position. With his good plate discipline, he should eventually make an impact in the majors if he could just break onto the Dodgers roster.

Jose Pirela – The 25-year-old has gotten a small taste of the bigs the last couple of seasons, but hasn’t made an impact yet. Pirela’s main issue is a lack of power. In the minors, he can work the count and get some walks. In the majors, pitchers attack him and make his bat beat them. So far it hasn’t.

Jose Martinez – The 27-year-old is on the fringes of making the age and power thresholds. He just doesn’t have enough power to make it as a corner outfielder in the majors. He might be more interesting if he was a middle infielder.

Max Kepler – He’s a stud and should be on a most people’s top 50 prospects this spring as he joins the Twins.

Brock Stassi – Like Martinez, his bat may not be good enough. Also, the Phillies are paying another left-handed first baseman quite a bit of money in the majors, so Stassi’s chances may be limited.

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG